NYY_2 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The pattern has looked good 2-weeks out ever since October. Nothing has really materialized. we never really expect much in terms of snow in oct/nov anyway, and december has produced some decent snows but it hasn't worked out so far but we have time and things seem to be setting up nicely. All we can do is wait edit: if you were speaking in terms of storms and not necessarily snow i apologize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Here it comes at 168 hr Nogaps the system is now in the Intermountain west.... and northern rockies. Will iti create a big coastal low?? Well, you know the winter is going badly when you need to rely on the NOGAPS for your upcoming winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 you know what I meant, quit nit picking. Pointing out falsehoods is not nitpicking. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Pointing out falsehoods is not nitpicking. Sorry. ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The pattern has looked good 2-weeks out ever since October. Nothing has really materialized. However this is the time the pattern should really change post NYE. At least Nino climatology tells us so. No, no, no. Please resist the urge to post like the old Ralph Wiggum. Honestly, this is complete nonsense and you know it. The pattern is undergoing a change right now that we have not yet seen this winter and it is CLEAR that blocking is trying to take shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 you know what I meant, quit nit picking. No, you said the pattern change has been 2 weeks away since October, which is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 So I guess now we wait and see if the Euro was just suffering from one of its biases or if the SE ridge will really be flexing later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 No, no, no. Please resist the urge to post like the old Ralph Wiggum. Honestly, this is complete nonsense and you know it. The pattern is undergoing a change right now that we have not yet seen this winter and it is CLEAR that blocking is trying to take shape. I completely agree as I posted. All signs point toward high lat blocking and we should in fact realize a pattern shift by the start of 2015 towards a colder and stormier regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 So I guess now we wait and see if the Euro was just suffering from one of its biases or if the SE ridge will really be flexing later next week. What we need to see is going to take many more days to come to fruition. If you're waiting to see definitive prove of a change to a more wintry pattern, you may want to take a break and come back on Tuesday. That -NAO will need to be on models inside of 5 days before any of us should take it seriously. Same goes for the SE ridge if that is to happen. Furthermore, to see if any wintry pattern that sets in will last for a while, we will need to wait several more weeks to assess the impact of stratospheric warming that is continuing to bombard the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The pattern has looked good 2-weeks out ever since October. Nothing has really materialized. However this is the time the pattern should really change post NYE. At least Nino climatology tells us so. Trying to make sense of this statement but can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Trying to make sense of this statement but can't. Seems like long rangers were popping EPO ridges out west....few materialized. Some long rangers were introducing high lat blocking but this never came about. Storm on the 20-21st was supposed to be our pattern changer. Nope. This is just how it has seemed to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Seems like long rangers were popping EPO ridges out west....few materialized. Some long rangers were introducing high lat blocking but this never came about. Storm on the 20-21st was supposed to be our pattern changer. Nope. This is just how it has seemed to me. I'm wrong anyway as per John.I'd have to say that it is true that the GFS has showed signs of a pattern change on and off, at 300+ hours out. However, expecting the GFS to be correct in it's forecasts 2 weeks out is like pinpointing who will get 4 inches and who will get 6 inches of snow in a storm 5 days out. Now that we are closer to the actual occurrence of a pattern change, it is looking more and more likely that sometime right after Christmas and by very early January, we should be experiencing true winter weather. In the past month or so, all of the chances of this fizzled away on the GFS, for example, once within 200-250 hours. Not this time. I don't see it as anything disappointing whatsoever. We average more snowstorms in March than we do in December, so to have the pattern change right around the start of the new year in January is perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z GEFS Davis Strait Block and elgongated PV over Ontario at 192hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z GEFS Davis Strait Block and elgongated PV over Ontario: That pattern verbatim would turn this winter around! That's ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z GEFS Davis Strait Block and elgongated PV over Ontario at 192hr Seeing that on an ensemble MEAN is definitely a good sign. Best positive development in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Initially, the EPO ridge might be a bit too far west, so it's still possible that the Dec 26-27 storm could cut. Though of course, if the block is as strong as depicted, that could still slide underneath us for a nice event. Regardless, the EPO shifts to a much more favorable position very shortly after that, as it pokes through Alaska and runs all the way through British Columbia and the West Coast. So even if we temporarily get a bit of a SE ridge, that should be shunted by Dec 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Fwiw low ontop of nyc Xmass eve. A good amount of rain...primary was sitting over Lake Michigan.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Fwiw low ontop of nyc Xmass eve. A good amount of rain...primary was sitting over Lake Michigan.. Yeah, that's a fast moving bomb, 986mb near Sandy Hook and 976mb over southern VT 6 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 960 goes up into Canada...that's a pattern changer..impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Ecmwf is going big time storm for after christmas...energy is gona slide underneath.There is piece of the pv nw of the main upper low...protecting a cutter move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z GEFS Davis Strait Block and elgongated PV over Ontario at 192hr Agh, I've been trying to find these maps I thought e-wall had'em but I didn't see them there. Where do you get these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2014121812/USA_HGT_500mb_168.gif Note a piece of the pv extending nw of the upper low... I think this cuts underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Hr 186 is a winter storm in the making...fantasy range but less digging on the euro with the sw energy and no way that cuts...beautiful look It cuts, right over Eastern KY at hr 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It cuts, right over Eastern KY at hr 192. The mean trough is still a bit to far west...might have to bite the bullet again on this one..with the closed block over the David straights that cutting is hard to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The mean trough is still a bit to far west...might have to bite the bullet again on this one..with the closed block over the David straights that cutting is hard to believe svr storms ongoing in the se at 192 hrs 60 kt at 850 mb and 10 - 12 c 850 temps stream northward. Here I imagine snow - rain with an ohio valley track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The block needs to be perfect for it to cut underneath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 We could use a more amplified west ridge to get this to dig south and go negetive slower//// cut off. I dont see any issue with the upper low in se canada and the ridge north of it. Pacific needs to improve... thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The SWs just needs a little more separation . The first SW is able to pull the trough axis west and the 2nd one because it on it`s heels and is able to cut You would like the second SW 12 to 24 hours slower so it can get caught under the confluence . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The mean trough is still a bit to far west...might have to bite the bullet again on this one..with the closed block over the David straights that cutting is hard to believe In general storms will only cut when we have a -NAO if the PV is too far south over central Canada and or a badly timed spoke of energy rotates around the base of the PV and phases into the system over the Plains..even then though it often is forced to redevelop at some point but we usually go snow to rain in those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 With the cold air , all but a certainity after Xmas, my question to the Red taggers is: will there be a proclivity in El Nino pattern and the STJ active towards more classic Miller A's ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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