Weathergun Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Latest indicies show a -NAO,-WPO,-AO but also a -PNA The negative pna is concerning The PNA looks more neutral looking at 500mb. When we -EPO and -NAO ridges meeting, the PNA signal is often more muted: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Did we have a -PNA last winter? The -EPO certainly helped our winter in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The PNA looks more neutral looking at 500mb. When we -EPO and -NAO ridges meeting, the PNA signal is often more muted: I just want a STJ with the vortex in hudson bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z PGFS has a drenching rain storm Monday night for the entire area. 996mb over the twin forks. No cold air until you get into central New England or Western PA. Somewhere between 1.5" and 2.5" of rain for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Thru at least the next 10 days I see nothing to indicate a pattern change. This post is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS looks more like a cold front than a GLC for Xmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS evolves very favorably aloft to help promote blocking over Greenland and the Davis Straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS looks more like a cold front than a GLC for Xmas Eve It literally has a 974mb low sitting just north of the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS evolves very favorably aloft to help promote blocking over Greenland and the Davis Straight If we can get one of the coastal systems, either the one over the weekend, or the one on Monday/Tuesday to move into the 50/50 position would that increase the chances of the Christmas cutter being forced to transfer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It literally has a 974mb low sitting just north of the Great Lakes ha I was just going to say the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If we can get one of the coastal systems, either the one over the weekend, or the one on Monday/Tuesday to move into the 50/50 position would that increase the chances of the Christmas cutter being forced to transfer to the coast? Unlikely. And you don't want it anyway. Let it cut into the Great Lakes and pump up the heights north of it. The pattern is favorable for high latitude ridging to move into a very favorable position if it does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 552 DM block heading toward the D Straight on the GFS at 177. Exciting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z PGFS takes the Christmas storm to sub 980mb over the eastern Great Lakes. 925mb winds are screaming for a period with heavy rain or convection over the area. I would think that would be one heck of a squall line if that verified. We actually get some SBACPE just south of the area into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 552 DM block heading toward the D Straight on the GFS at 177. Exciting stuff. A long term metreological investement of sorts, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 A long term metreological investement of sorts, Correct. But not necessarily long term. Things can get favorable very quickly with an elongated ULL over Southern Canada and a block to its north over Central Canada and an active pac jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z GFS the bulk PV displaced to far SW. Allows the 192-204hr storm to cut west. But it's still exciting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 552 DM block heading toward the D Straight on the GFS at 177. Exciting stuff. Yeah, the pattern going forward looks great, especially starting right around New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z GFS the bulk PV displaced to far SW. Allows the 192-204hr storm to cut west. But it's still exciting to see. Yup. But that being said, nobody should be complaining about this look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I am watching that shortwave after the weekend system and after the xmas cutter. That new system with blocking may cause lots of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'm not convinced the post Xmas cutter cuts also. It looks like the gfs plows the low into the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Big cutoff block on the Canadian now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I am watching that shortwave after the weekend system and after the xmas cutter. That new system with blocking may cause lots of Hopefully the blocking comes into fruition so that the system coming in behind it will end up as a miller B. Otherwise there doesn't appear to be anything from stopping another cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Big cutoff block on the Canadian now too Did you notice the higher heights stretching into NE Canada from Greenland as the surface low up there retrogrades? Exciting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Here it comes at 168 hr Nogaps the system is now in the Intermountain west.... and northern rockies. Will iti create a big coastal low?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 PB GFI, on 18 Dec 2014 - 10:22 AM, said:PB GFI, on 18 Dec 2014 - 10:22 AM, said:-NAO -EPO -WPO -AO -PNA Is about as good as it could possibly get . Is it true that as long as the NAO, EPO, and AO are all negative, -PNA will not do much effect? Unless, you are south of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah, the pattern going forward looks great, especially starting right around New Years. The pattern has looked good 2-weeks out ever since October. Nothing has really materialized. However this is the time the pattern should really change post NYE. At least Nino climatology tells us so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Closed 552dm contour over Eastern Davis Strait at 186hr-192hr on the 12z GEFS. Displaced PV over Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The pattern has looked good 2-weeks out ever since October. Nothing has really materialized. Categorically untrue...the first at least 2 or 3 weeks of december have always looked iffy at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Categorically untrue...the first at least 2 or 3 weeks of december have always looked iffy at best. you know what I meant, quit nit picking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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