tmagan Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Anything of interest on Euro? Wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Euro looks quite similiar to the ggem in regards to xmas storm Yes, they both show rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 This is a rain threat. Not a snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 192 - 972mb north of Ottawa!!...ridge in center on nation with trof developing out west. Storm ejecting out of Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks like a nice cutter developing in the center of the nation and we are about to torch near the end of this run. yippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Lol... Its a rain event dude. Give it a restnot if the east trend continues. Take a look at this image top is tonight's euro run, bottom is last nights run. Same timeframe.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 not if the east trend continues. Take a look at this image top is tonight's euro run, bottom is last nights run. Same timeframe. Sent from my iPhone Even a benchmark track with that setup is a rain event for pretty much everyone up to Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Preceding airmass is stale...next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The vodka cold and snows come in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 216 - 1005mb LP St Louis. Major SE Ridge developing with 1024+mb HP firmly in place off the SE Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Beautiful south east ridge at 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Thru at least the next 10 days I see nothing to indicate a pattern change. I think we wait till after the new year to flip to a colder pattern with potential for snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 216 - 1005mb LP St Louis. Major SE Ridge developing with 1024+mb HP firmly in place off the SE Coast Looks like a Bermuda High ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 one must look into the models bias and recognize that the euro has a history of of over amping and ejecting energy in the SWern conus which is why we're seeing a strong SE ridge, take a look at the GFS at 240 then 252 and you'll see its transient and that at 252 we have KU pattern in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Dear God, this guy has absolutely no idea what he is talking about. And that is coming from me with a lack of knowledge, but you make me feel like einstein **** I just gave you a 5 day ban intended for Tony. Will fix it now. You might be blocked for an hour or so. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 **** I just gave you a 5 day ban intended for Tony. Will fix it now. You might be blocked for an hour or so. Sorry. You're back to one point. Should be good to go. PM me if you can't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 okay I'm sorry I'll just lurk until saturday. That's your third in 3 weeks. You're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 one must look into the models bias and recognize that the euro has a history of of over amping and ejecting energy in the SWern conus which is why we're seeing a strong SE ridge, take a look at the GFS at 240 then 252 and you'll see its transient and that at 252 we have KU pattern in place. Agree. GEFS sets up a great pattern after Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 There were only three posts needed in here overnight. 1. Gefs have a great pattern in the LR. 2. Consider the Euro bias of over amplifying s/w in the Southwest often results in a flexed SE ridge downstream. 3. Ggem does not match the euro. The rest is noise. TonyLovesSnow...glad he was taken care of. The dopey bets should be moved to banter. 90% of this is banter. The only thing I am confident of to an extent right now is that the trailing disturbance from 12/21 will become some sort of storm and likely mitigate the 12/24 event and result in it being more East. I do think the SE ridge is likely too strong but my concern is not that as much as it is many of the GFS ensembles also wanting to show most of the cold centered in the middle of the US with maybe 2-3 showing a SE ridge. Its hard to imagine a SE ridge if the -NAO develops but if it does not the AK ridge is certainly far enough west that it could happen. Also some of the GFS ensembles have a GOA low again by Day 13 or a collapsing at least of the western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The only thing I am confident of to an extent right now is that the trailing disturbance from 12/21 will become some sort of storm and likely mitigate the 12/24 event and result in it being more East. I do think the SE ridge is likely too strong but my concern is not that as much as it is many of the GFS ensembles also wanting to show most of the cold centered in the middle of the US with maybe 2-3 showing a SE ridge. Its hard to imagine a SE ridge if the -NAO develops but if it does not the AK ridge is certainly far enough west that it could happen. Also some of the GFS ensembles have a GOA low again by Day 13 or a collapsing at least of the western ridge.Good point about the pesky 21st storm. First it was snow, then no, now just strong enough to be rain AND potentially cause another delay in the pattern change. Yes, it bares watching. Nothing we can do but see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Have to remember that pattern changes typically cause a period of havoc on the models before they eventually play out. The more severe the change, as in this case, the more wild run to run differences we can expect to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 1st of all if that SE is remotely real after day 10 I would be both shocked and would jump for joy. You guys don't realize that you don't live at 5k feet . When you have a neg epo/ao regime your flow is right out if the arctic so your 2 m temps will b colder than what you would normally think when seeing a SE ridge. Now why would I jump for joy ? Because you would cut the jet under Frigid air and the SWs would be forced under the confluence . A SW every 3 days would run right near where the baroclinic zone sets up so you would set up a gradient pattern . Nothing had chanted the epo heads neg by day 9 nothing has changed on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 **** I just gave you a 5 day ban intended for Tony. Will fix it now. You might be blocked for an hour or so. Sorry. You had it right with him too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Big shift east Rain bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Rain bro.Maybe he means for Flint MI .I wanted to add to the earlier post for those who see that SE ridge and got nervous. That's only a product of the xmas retrogression of the ULL west so the ridge has no resistance. It's temporary. The 27th cuts not because of the ridge but because the xmas low pulls the trough axis west. Once the 27th system comes east that's ur cold front and then the pattern will have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Everything pretty much following according to the El Nino winter schedule where it usually takes until January or February for improvement in the snowfall department. For the crew growing up in the very Nino 80's, this was par for the course. It usually takes a series of late December strong cutters to finally pull the cold into the east to start January. But notice the big change to Canada cold that is showing up over the last week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Latest indicies show a -NAO,-WPO,-AO but also a -PNAThe negative pna is concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Latest indicies show a -NAO,-WPO,-AO but also a -PNA The negative pna is concerning why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 why Although, having the other indices favorable can trumph the pna just like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Although, having the other indices favorable can trumph the pna just like last year -NAO -EPO -WPO -AO -PNA Is about as good as it could possibly get . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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