December Forecast Discussion

[TonyLovesSnow]

It has potential to be the strongest winter system in the U.S. since 1993 if the current projections were to verify. There is not a whole lot of cold air to work with which would make the overall snow area rather narrow however.

sounds good to me. I am here to track snow but if there's no snow we ought to at least track something, potentially historic!

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[Guest Pamela]

its too early Pamela. All we know is there's going to be a strong storm in the eastern half of the U.S. track is impossible to nail down. Though the intensity of this storm could be the strongest low pressure thus far this season

 

I mean it is 168 hours  / 7 days out or so; anything is possible...could maybe spawn some secondary development off the Virginia Capes...but not overly confident at this juncture in time.  The period between Christmas & New Years has not yielded a great deal of snow in NYC traditionally...Boxing Day, 2002, 12/30/2000, and Dec 26, 1947 nonwithstanding. 

[Guest Pamela]

I mean it is 168 hours  / 7 days out or so; anything is possible...could maybe spawn some secondary development off the Virginia Capes...but not overly confident at this juncture in time.  The period between Christmas & New Years has not yielded a great deal of snow in NYC traditionally...Boxing Day, 2002, 12/30/2000, and Dec 26, 1947 nonwithstanding. 

 

Though the 12/25 - 12/31 stretch tends to be snowier than the climatologically wretched 1/1 - 1/6 period...it never seems to snow then...I doubt there have been more than a couple 6 inch snowfalls in Central Park the first 6 days of January in the last 100 years. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

sounds good to me. I am here to track snow but if there's no snow we ought to at least track something, potentially historic!

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Do you really want 964 in NY State in the Christmas time frame? Historic or not I'll pass on 3" of rain and 50mph onshore winds during the holiday! If anything I would want this to be further west aka less local impact and more impact on pattern change

[Yanksfan]

I wonder if its possible this storm might trend to a coastal hugger?

[TonyLovesSnow]

Do you really want 964 in NY State in the Christmas time frame? Historic or not I'll pass on 3" of rain and 50mph onshore winds during the holiday! If anything I would want this to be further west aka less local impact and more impact on pattern change

well I certainly don't want anyone getting injured but I wouldn't mind a nice storm. Unfortunately, I just don't see this as a snow event for us. I just hate warm Christmas' but heavy rain and damaging winds are annoying. I wouldn't mind an inch of rain temps in low 40's with modest winds!

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[TonyLovesSnow]

I wonder if its possible this storm might trend to a coastal hugger?

anything is possible look what happen with the weekend storm. Disappeared!

[Guest Pamela]

anything is possible look what happen with the weekend storm. Disappeared!

 

If you look at the odds derived from past experience / history...the chances of a projected storm "disappearing" far exceed a non projected storm from producing a last minute snow event around here.  It happens, but not too often.  Thus expectations need to be tempered by the harshness of this part of the country's climatological reality when it comes to snow. 

[David-LI]

is the JMA a good model long range?

[White Gorilla]

I remember the winter of 86-87, which was El Nino, where December was virtually snowless and there was a very heavy rainstorm on Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. However, beginning Jan 3, it was nor'easter after nor'easter that month and living in Worcester, MA at that time, I was in snow heaven! Jan 1987 had Worcester, MA see close to 70 inches that month alone. The snow was almost up to my chin on the grass by month's end with banks many feet high. It was one of the best winter periods I have ever lived through!

Point of story, January may deliver the goods!

[Blizz]

If you look at the odds derived from past experience / history...the chances of a projected storm "disappearing" far exceed a non projected storm from producing a last minute snow event around here.  It happens, but not too often.  Thus expectations need to be tempered by the harshness of this part of the country's climatological reality when it comes to snow. 

 

What are you talking about? "Last minute snow event"? We are over a week out and the 18 GFS just shifted quite a bit east along with the Canadian showing a 958mb low south of Maine. This isn't a lock for a GLC.

[SnowGoose69]

Though the 12/25 - 12/31 stretch tends to be snowier than the climatologically wretched 1/1 - 1/6 period...it never seems to snow then...I doubt there have been more than a couple 6 inch snowfalls in Central Park the first 6 days of January in the last 100 years. 

 

I'm not sure whats harder, a big snow in NYC 1/1 to 1/6 or a landfalling hurricane at SAV or JAX.

[Guest Pamela]

I remember the winter of 86-87, which was El Nino, where December was virtually snowless and there was a very heavy rainstorm on Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. However, beginning Jan 3, it was nor'easter after nor'easter that month and living in Worcester, MA at that time, I was in snow heaven! Jan 1987 had Worcester, MA see close to 70 inches that month alone. The snow was almost up to my chin on the grass by month's end with banks many feet high. It was one of the best winter periods I have ever lived through!

Point of story, January may deliver the goods!

 

Worcester...perched at almost 1000 feet a.s.l. in the Eastern New England Upland, possesses a radically different snow climatology from NYC. 

[Guest Pamela]

I'm not sure whats harder, a big snow in NYC 1/1 to 1/6 or a landfalling hurricane at SAV or JAX.

 

The indentation that represents the Georgia coast makes me lean towards the latter...

[White Gorilla]

Worcester...perched at almost 1000 feet a.s.l. in the Eastern New England Upland, possesses a radically different snow climatology from NYC.

I did not say that NYC is going to get that kind of snow this coming Jan, but I am hoping that like that winter, the storm track changes into a snowier pattern. The Christmas 1986 event was a cutter that reshuffled the pattern.

[SnowGoose69]

I remember the winter of 86-87, which was El Nino, where December was virtually snowless and there was a very heavy rainstorm on Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. However, beginning Jan 3, it was nor'easter after nor'easter that month and living in Worcester, MA at that time, I was in snow heaven! Jan 1987 had Worcester, MA see close to 70 inches that month alone. The snow was almost up to my chin on the grass by month's end with banks many feet high. It was one of the best winter periods I have ever lived through!

Point of story, January may deliver the goods!

 

86-87 is an analog being thrown around...NYC as a whole got unlucky that winter where several storms missed to the south, it probably had the best chance to be the snowiest winter in the 1980-1994 period behind 93-94 but it just did not work out on more than a few storms.

[Guest Pamela]

What are you talking about? "Last minute snow event"? We are over a week out and the 18 GFS just shifted quite a bit east along with the Canadian showing a 958mb low south of Maine. This isn't a lock for a GLC.

 

I think I was addressing "TonyLovesSnow" in a hypothetical sense and not necessarily focusing in on the next storm on the horizon; i.e. my assertion was not case specific. 

[Guest Pamela]

86-87 is an analog being thrown around...NYC as a whole got unlucky that winter where several storms missed to the south, it probably had the best chance to be the snowiest winter in the 1980-1994 period behind 93-94 but it just did not work out on more than a few storms.

 

Patchogue on the South Shore of Long Island did crack the 40 inch barrier during the 1986-87 winter on the strength of a snowy January & February...the only Long Island or NYC station to see more than 40 inches of snow in a season during the 1980's...which should serve as a great cautionary tale in and of itself.

[SnowGoose69]

Patchogue on the South Shore of Long Island did crack the 40 inch barrier during the 1986-87 winter on the strength of a snowy January & February...the only Long Island or NYC station to see more than 40 inches of snow in a season during the 1980's...which should serve as a great cautionary tale in and of itself.

 

The 80s were the complete opposite of the last 10 years or so, everything that could go wrong more or less did, especially west of the Nassau/Suffolk border...the last decade everything has gone right, we'll definitely see a stretch of 6-8 winters soon where NYC does not crack 30 inches or so...climo suggests it has to ocur.

[White Gorilla]

86-87 is an analog being thrown around...NYC as a whole got unlucky that winter where several storms missed to the south, it probably had the best chance to be the snowiest winter in the 1980-1994 period behind 93-94 but it just did not work out on more than a few storms.

Hopefully probability works in NYC's favor this time!

[Guest Pamela]

The 80s were the complete opposite of the last 10 years or so, everything that could go wrong more or less did, especially west of the Nassau/Suffolk border...the last decade everything has gone right, we'll definitely see a stretch of 6-8 winters soon where NYC does not crack 30 inches or so...climo suggests it has to ocur.

 

 

It was a heck of a lot better east of the NYC border than in NYC proper...though certainly nothing to brag about:

 

Mean Annual Snowfall (1980-81 - 1989-90)

Westbury (central Nassau County): 25.44"

Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX: 25.41"

LaGuardia Airport: 21.66"

John F Kennedy Airport: 20.28"

Central Park: 19.74"          

[SnowGoose69]

is the JMA a good model long range?

 

Its seasonal forecasts the last year or two I think have been crazy good...it nailed last winter and I believe this past summer...as far as its Day 1 - Day 10 forecasts I don't think I ever see it ranked in those NCEP verifications that include the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, GGEM, and NOGAPS but I'd like to see where it ranks.  It definitely has beaten the GFS badly on several big storms.

[David-LI]

Its seasonal forecasts the last year or two I think have been crazy good...it nailed last winter and I believe this past summer...as far as its Day 1 - Day 10 forecasts I don't think I ever see it ranked in those NCEP verifications that include the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, GGEM, and NOGAPS but I'd like to see where it ranks.  It definitely has beaten the GFS badly on several big storms.

Thank you for replying, this is the reason I ask. Not sure if it means anything in terms of snow but interesting to see. 

 

[TonyLovesSnow]

Its seasonal forecasts the last year or two I think have been crazy good...it nailed last winter and I believe this past summer...as far as its Day 1 - Day 10 forecasts I don't think I ever see it ranked in those NCEP verifications that include the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, GGEM, and NOGAPS but I'd like to see where it ranks. It definitely has beaten the GFS badly on several big storms.

lol goose I was gonna say GFS has been really bad I wonder why?

[SnowGoose69]

lol goose I was gonna say GFS has been really bad I wonder why?

 

I'm never a fan of the verification numbers because they can encompass tons of days with beautiful weather nationwide and no big storms, I would like someone to break down 5 days leading up to 4-5 big storms and see which models rank 1-2-3....my guess is the GFS or UKMET would not be in there despite the fact the most common order on verification for those is Euro, UKMET, GFS.

[Guest Pamela]

The 80s were the complete opposite of the last 10 years or so, everything that could go wrong more or less did, especially west of the Nassau/Suffolk border...the last decade everything has gone right, we'll definitely see a stretch of 6-8 winters soon where NYC does not crack 30 inches or so...climo suggests it has to ocur.

 

The sad truth is that in the nearly 6 year span from March 1987 through January 1993...the best & most exciting winter month around these parts was November 1989. 

[Guest Pamela]

The sad truth is that in the nearly 6 year span from March 1987 through January 1993...the best & most exciting winter month around these parts was November 1989. 

 

February 1993...punctuated by 2 moderate snowstorms...is, in many ways, the Great Turning Point that marked the start of the current snowy regime...despite stops & starts...including the nearly snowless 1994-95 winter and the bad 1997 - 2000 period.

[SnowGoose69]

February 1993...punctuated by 2 moderate snowstorms...is, in many ways the Great Turning Point that marked the start of the current snowy regime...despite stops & start...including the nearly snowless 1994-95 winter and the bad 1997 - 2000 period, 

 

If I remember right there was a major bust in early February 93...I cannot remember the date but I want to say it was a Friday storm that watches were issued for Thursday AM and then literally dropped like 10 hours later...I do remember the 2/13 event clearly and the one later in the month although it turned to rain.

[Guest Pamela]

If I remember right there was a major bust in early February 93...I cannot remember the date but I want to say it was a Friday storm that watches were issued for Thursday AM and then literally dropped like 10 hours later...I do remember the 2/13 event clearly and the one later in the month although it turned to rain.

 

Will need to double check...I do know one of the events was associated with some very cold air...which had been essentially non existent during a snow event for years...the few that had occurred in those days took place with the thermometer mostly at or near the freezing point.

[SnowGoose69]

Will need to double check...I do know one of the events was associated with some very cold air...which had been essentially non existent during a snow event for years...the few that had occurred in those days took place with the thermometer mostly at or near the freezing point.

 

I think the bust was January, I remember now there was also an event on 2/6 which was basically following an arctic front, the others were 2/13, and 2/21.