IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 972mb over Lake Erie. Heavy rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 968mb over Lake Surperior. Tons of cold air trying to wrap around the backside. The Western half of PA is either a rain/snow mix or possibly snow. BL is borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Agreement from the gfs/euro this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 968mb over Lake Surperior. Tons of cold air trying to wrap around the backside. The Western half of PA is either a rain/snow mix or possibly snow. BL is borderline. It goes from Lake Erie to Lake Superior? Seems geographically unlikely, kiddo, unless there's one hell of a phase / retrogression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Still deepening, 964mb just over the Canadian border. Precip basically shuts off for us just as the cold air is arriving. Temps crash from almost 60F at 00z 12/25 to the upper 30's by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It goes from Lake Erie to Lake Superior? Seems geographically unlikely, kiddo, unless there's one hell of a phase / retrogression. Yes, it retrogrades, beginning at hour 174 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It goes from Lake Erie to Lake Superior? Seems geographically unlikely, kiddo, unless there's one hell of a phase / retrogression.Both the GFS and Euro retrograde the storm. I wonder if winds will be an issue for us, surface windwinds look kind of Meh on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Both the GFS and Euro retrograde the storm. I wonder if winds will be an issue for us, surface windwinds look kind of Meh on the GFS. The Euro has 30-40kt surface winds along the coast for a period on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The Euro has 30-40kt surface winds along the coast for a period on Christmas Eve.Seems like a run of the mill November storm as far a sensible weather is concerned for our area. Warm rain with strong but not damaging onshore winds over to marginally cold air on the backside with a flake or two possible. I really can't wait until we are out of this pattern. Hopefully this is the pattern changer we have been waiting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 so In summary in the next week we will go 0 for 2, in all likelyhood, with the hope being the Santa Bomb will radically change the pattern. Going over the store right now to buy some patience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Ah I see. Thanks fellas To get the heaviest seasonal snowfall potential you have to live downwind of the Great Lakes or up in the mountains since they do well with storms that cut to their north or west. The benchmark track with enough cold locked in place for snow is a very small subset of all our precipitation producing winter storms. Models can be off by quite a bit on cutter forecasts since it's still a cutter at 50 miles west of NYC or 750 miles west. So people won't really notice since it's rain in either case. But long range forecasts of hitting the exact BM track can vary widely since it such a specific track and be off by enough for a big change to the snowfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 To get the heaviest seasonal snowfall potential you have to live downwind of the Great Lakes or up in the mountains since they do well with storms that cut to their north or west. The benchmark track with enough cold locked in place for snow is a very small subset of all our precipitation producing winter storms. Models can be off by quite a bit on cutter forecasts since it's still a cutter at 50 miles west of NYC or 750 miles west. So people won't really notice since it's rain in either case. But long range forecasts of hitting the exact BM track can vary widely since it such a specific track and be off by enough for a big change to the snowfall potential. Great explanation, i appreciate it man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This is where things will get interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This is where things will get interesting... That temp orientation for our neck of the woods is N for Normal. Yes, thats the period where pattern is supposed to shift but graphics you use dont exactly make that point, follow me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 There are a handful of Euro ensemble members, maybe 5 or 6 that aren't showing a cutter. Some with a track just inland and some over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The mean? That's beyond insane. To have that so far out there must be some downright comical members in there. I deleted the post because it was an error. The ensemble mean is 978mb over lake Huron. Still highly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I deleted the post because it was an error.Took mine off as well, that would've been absolutely insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The control run takes it down to 956mb over Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 So what you guys are saying is that if this Xmas Storm cuts, it will be mild and rainy... Sigh. So much for the pattern(gotta wait longer?. What's up with this delaying. IMO it is not even as much a delay as it is a transition occurring. Patterns (globally) do not just flip like a light switch, there are often times where numerous events must occur in order to set the wheels in motion. As the global teleconnectors begin to shift, energy is displaced and eventually all that energy that is put into motion can trigger a wave breaking event (much like what we may see with x-mas) that will finally serve to put the new pattern in place. A massive cutter as shown for x-mas may actually help us out much more heading into the New Year then a marginal event ever could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It'll be interesting to see once the new pattern is established, if we will either have a storm shortly thereafter, or we might go through a period of cold @ dry before any storm. Any mets thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 18z GFS blows up the trailing vort on Monday, just offshore. No real phasing or mechanism to pull it back towards the coast. Throws back almost an inverted trough feature into New England. The PGFS is further NW and has a coastal hugger with rain for the area. A bit more northern stream interaction on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It'll be interesting to see once the new pattern is established, if we will either have a storm shortly thereafter, or we might go through a period of cold @ dry before any storm. Any mets thoughts? Impossible to say, in an El Nino cold and dry is not very likely. I now think though we may clear this month with no additional snowfall, I did not think that was likely a few days ago but unless something comes around 12/29-12/31 I'm not seeing it now. This weekend's storm failing may make people more happy in the end anyway, this air mass is going to be quite a bit more stale than it appeared 3 days or so ago...likely even if it did happen it would have been rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 18z GFS blows up the trailing vort on Monday, just offshore. No real phasing or mechanism to pull it back towards the coast. Throws back almost an inverted trough feature into New England. The PGFS is further NW and has a coastal hugger with rain for the area. A bit more northern stream interaction on that model. That may be the best chance to get the 12/24 system to end up more East...if that can really explode and force the trof/baroclinic zone east a bit it may force the X-Mas eve system to go over or slightly to our east...we'd still be mostly snow but it would likely induce a faster pattern flip and we could hope for some sort of action on the backlash. At the same time it comes with some risk that it would severely weaken the 12/24 event...its not common to get 2 strong systems back to back, if that trailing vort does indeed explode its likely that while the X-Mas event is more East it won't be a sub 980 bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Massive differences on the 18z OP GFS in part due to the handling of the 12/24 system. Instead of phasing early on and sending a bomb into the Ohio Valley, the 18z GFS holds back 12-18 hours. The result winds up being an explosively developing low to the west of New Jersey that deepens from roughly 984mb over Washington DC to about 961 over NY state. Besides the obvious potential for flooding rains and strong winds, there would probably be a good chance for some gusty snow squalls on Christmas day for most of this sub-forum which I assume is what everyone cares about. Not sure why I'm diagnosing the 18z GFS, but I thought it was a particularly interesting scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 In that scenario it snows in Philly. And most of the sub-forum, to bad its the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'm really curious what the final result ends up being, the gfs has been forcing the evolution further east because there are other players out there that will determine how this storm evolves. Interesting combination of a major storm phasing along with the formation of a blocking pattern with several lows around, in particular the one gfs is blowing up offshore a day prior to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Massive differences on the 18z OP GFS in part due to the handling of the 12/24 system. Instead of phasing early on and sending a bomb into the Ohio Valley, the 18z GFS holds back 12-18 hours. The result winds up being an explosively developing low to the west of New Jersey that deepens from roughly 984mb over Washington DC to about 961 over NY state. Besides the obvious potential for flooding rains and strong winds, there would probably be a good chance for some gusty snow squalls on Christmas day for most of this sub-forum which I assume is what everyone cares about. Not sure why I'm diagnosing the 18z GFS, but I thought it was a particularly interesting scenario. That's a really strange track...even for December...up the spine of the Appalachians up to Quebec...then around the time it gets to the latitude of Hudson Bay it begins to retrograde back towards Ontario & Manitoba...maybe caught up in the flow or the polar easterlies...before ultimately filling & dissipating. Probably wouldn't yield too much precipitation on the backside for the C.P. with the hills to their left...good squall potential downwind of the Lakes, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 In that scenario it snows in Philly. And most of the sub-forum, to bad its the 18z. Most definitely not a classic snow setup for Philly or any city on the immediate east coast...so forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Most definitely not a classic snow setup for Philly or any city on the immediate east coast...so forget it. its too early Pamela. All we know is there's going to be a strong storm in the eastern half of the U.S. track is impossible to nail down. Though the intensity of this storm could be the strongest low pressure thus far this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 its too early Pamela. All we know is there's going to be a strong storm in the eastern half of the U.S. track is impossible to nail down. Though the intensity of this storm could be the strongest low pressure thus far this season It has potential to be the strongest winter system in the U.S. since 1993 if the current projections were to verify. There is not a whole lot of cold air to work with which would make the overall snow area rather narrow however. Ryan Maue has been hammering the idea all day he does not think much snow will fall with the system at all...he may be thinking the somewhat double barreled nature some models/ensembles are showing will take away from the thunder of the system til it reaches the lakes, by then it sort of occludes and mostly is a lake effect machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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