Rjay Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 the sad part is .that when the cold comes..I'm cetrain that we won't have so many storms around.. it's wet and warm vs dry and cold All indications show that we should have a strong pacfic jet so there's no basis for this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 not a White Christmas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Beastly looking storm though with a sub 980 low just our north. There's no way this storm will look like the gfs shows this far out so the question will be how will it look like. I saw some semblance of a 50/50 and some east based blocking but this is our transition storm. The timing is almost hysterical though as we always get these types of storms on Xmas eve/Xmas but again it won't look like the gfs shows 8 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Beastly looking storm though with a sub 980 low just our north. There's no way this storm will look like the gfs shows this far out so the question will be how will it look like. I saw some semblance of a 50/50 and some east based blocking but this is our transition storm. The timing is almost hysterical though as we always get these types of storms on Xmas eve/Xmas but again it won't look like the gfs shows 8 days from now. Ukie has it 200 250 miles south over southern Iowa compaired to GFS having it over southern Minnesota at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Miller B as Christmas gift for all of you on this board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Beastly looking storm though with a sub 980 low just our north. There's no way this storm will look like the gfs shows this far out so the question will be how will it look like. I saw some semblance of a 50/50 and some east based blocking but this is our transition storm. The timing is almost hysterical though as we always get these types of storms on Xmas eve/Xmas but again it won't look like the gfs shows 8 days from now. agreed, 8 days is an eternity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The Euro has a 967mb low over Detroit at 192... incase you were wondering. Good god... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Before everyone shoots the messenger ( me ) among others who said DEC 20 would be the day we exit the bad pattern on the coast the Christmas system is just a beautiful evolution ( we happen to be on the wrong side of it ) and if it were to occur the way the euro depicts it will be help in bringing down the trough . So once Dec 25 is gone so will this S@# pattern . Patience Jan - Feb should be worth the wait . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The Euro has a 967mb low over Detroit at 192... incase you were wondering. Good god... Yeah, 967 won't happen but 982 might...this should be the final pattern changing mechanism...I would prefer it track more towards us or W PA with a NE trajectory, that would setup things possibly for something on the 28th or so...if it cuts up into MI or IL its more likely the ensuing system would be able to cut as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Euro with a huge cutter for Xmass, no way that does anything else. It does help change the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The 0z Euro Ensembles have cold air and troughiness in the East, 11-15 day range. -EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The 0z Euro Ensembles have cold air and troughiness in the East, 11-15 day range. -EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern dominate. is this the first time those three are being modeled to go negative ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 is this the first time those three are being modeled to go negative ??? Yes. I posted this for you yesterday evening as well. The LR looks phenomenal. KU-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yes. I posted this for you yesterday evening as well. The LR looks phenomenal. KU-like.thank you I am at work right now will check it in a little while thanks again wolf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The strength of that Euro 7-8 cutter will be determined by whether there is a phase with the southern stream or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The strength of that Euro 7-8 cutter will be determined by whether there is a phase with the southern stream or not. What a powerful setup if it phases though with a massive negatively tilted trough. 06z goes crazy with it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Euro 0z pumping ridge in the east at 240hrs while dumping the cold out west... gfs total opposite with very cold conditions for the east. ?..euro has been somewhat east coast ridge happy last several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Euro 0z pumping ridge in the east at 240hrs while dumping the cold out west... gfs total opposite with very cold conditions for the east. ?..euro has been somewhat east coast ridge happy last several months. No the Euro has the cold down the plains and through the lakes . Spreads east fast . Yesterdays SE ridge at 12z is gone at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 What a powerful setup if it phases though with a massive negatively tilted trough. 06z goes crazy with it as well. Some of the strongest cutters involved a southern stream phase. So that detail will determine how strong this one gets. Plenty of time to monitor since we are still pretty far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 a strong system can trigger a wave breaking event and help disrupt the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 a strong system can trigger a wave breaking event and help disrupt the PV 12z GFS has a 974mb low over Western NY at 171hr 969mb at 174hr 964mb at 177hr Eastern Lakes. 958mb just north Lake Huron at 186hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z GFS has a 974mb low over Western NY. What a big storm for Christmas Eve on the GFS. Look at all of the cold air behind the storm. That's the change that we have been waiting for. Possible snow squalls on Christmas Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 That can give us some pretty good winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 What a big storm for Christmas Eve on the GFS. Look at all of the cold air behind the storm. That's the change that we have been waiting for. Possible snow squalls on Christmas Day? No. Too far west on this run. It bottoms out at 958mb just on the north side of Lake Huron at 186hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It bottoms out at 958mb just on the north side of Lake Huron at 186hr. Really impressive storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Really impressive storm More than enough to shatter monthly record surface pressures across a wide area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 a strong system can trigger a wave breaking event and help disrupt the PVi know it's the GFS but this shows it beautifully. the wave breaking event happens and we get a classic -NAO http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z GGEM is 960mb in the Gulf of Maine. It develops and just misses the area. Deepens from 988mb to 960mb in about 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The GFS is out to lunch on the secondary S/W developing on the 23rd, I don't see it on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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