December Forecast Discussion

[DTWXRISK]

jm  I agree

[DTWXRISK]

 Yawn..

. 

 

DT has no fan base
he has to troll our GFS fun runs?

 

What to make himself look good?

I am honored

you see this
he is feeling the heat (for real) that a weenie thread

our ali/ frazier routine
has more views.... than any of his put together

hows that pattern change thread doing ????

the internet creates very sad egomaniacs
only you and me know
we were playing
and that makes it even sadder

that he has to put on his weather superhero cape for me and (the metro)

 

 

good luck with your goon squad....Commander DT

we wont be back 

 

Tommy E

North Arlington 

New Jersey

 

[NYCSNOWMAN2020]

People may not agree with DT but still has a wide array of weather knowledge so should be respected..

[Nygmen]

ok so was the 00z euro outcome a better solution for the coast? because people in the new england and mid atlantic forums seem to think so

[NEG NAO]

WPC increased their precip totals for the weekend event here now all we need is cold enough air to stick around during the storm the track of the storm is almost perfect - the positioning and strength  of the HP to the north also has to be since the airmass is borderline at best to work with......

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1418647657

[NEG NAO]

new storm thread just started for the 19th and 20th

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45134-december-19-20-coastal-storm-threat/

[MJO812]

Really encouraging

[TwcMan]

Really encouraging

Joe cioffi mentioned this on his Facebook this morning. Also said the PNA is aiming towards neutral. Really nice setup if it transpires.

[Chaser25973]

If that pans out, we're going to have a bitterly cold new year's eve with an AO around -5. BRRRRRR!

[IsentropicLift]

As was previously discussed in the wrong thread, the Euro is showing an interesting setup around Christmas for a possible East coast storm. While we're a long way off from nailing down the details, the 12z ECMWF closes off a large ULL over the TN Valley and pops a secondary surface low near the mid-atlantic. The system eventually tracks up the Apps and bottoms out in the low 980's over PA before filling and passing overhead and then off the coast.

 

[ag3]

Let me guess:

"Rain for the coast and snow for NWNJ"

[IsentropicLift]

Let me guess:

"Rain for the coast and snow for NWNJ"

Rain for everyone, unless things change.

[Superstorm93]

Well the 12z ECM ENS have a pretty big signal for a mild/rainy Christmas with a 997mb low over MI and hints at a secondary low over the MA states by 198 hours...

 

[Allsnow]

Well the 12z ECM EPS have a pretty big signal for a mild/rainy Christmas with a 996mb low over MI and hints at a secondary low over the MA states by 198 hours...

Impossible....yanks said it doesn't cut

[IsentropicLift]

That low over MI on the EPS mean is the northern stream system that develops over North Dakota at hour 138 on the operational.

 

You can see it here at hour 144.

 

 

It then gets shoved north of the border by hour 180.

 

You can see it here at hour 192 in extreme southern Canada, north of MN.

 

 

If you look at the EPS mean, the same low develops in the same spot, just ends up a bit stronger and over Michigan instead.

[bluewave]

In any event, that looks like an interesting storm evolution with the energy staying

intact from Japan into the Eastern US.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Strongly feel the 24th storm is an Archambault event that changes everything. Based on the maps above it looks like the entire pattern flips 180*. 

[bluewave]

Strongly feel the 24th storm is an Archambault event that changes everything. Based on the maps above it looks like the entire pattern flips 180*. 

 

The Euro weeklies have been advertising a transition pattern for a while now for the last week of the month. The more

negative EPO was a strong signal on the week three at the beginning of the month. This also fits with

typical December into January El Nino pattern progression. December El Ninos typically feature the

the unfavorable +EPO/+AO/+NAO not very snow pattern. We really got spoiled by the 2002 and

2009 outlier El Nino Decembers.

 

0z 12-4...week 3

 

https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/500za_week3_bg_na.png

 

0Z 12-15....weeks 1-4

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/12/15/the-real-ecmwf-maps/

[PB GFI]

A little xmas cheer .  

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

A little xmas cheer .

always looks good 7 plus days out eventually one had to pan out

[CIK62]

A little xmas cheer .  

Rain has changed to snow for a possible WhiteX-MAS AM, but precip. to stop quickly.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_atlantic_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atla

[Allsnow]

18z gfs splits the polar vortex….that would be beautiful 

[CIK62]

The Euro weeklies have been advertising a transition pattern for a while now for the last week of the month. The more

negative EPO was a strong signal on the week three at the beginning of the month. This also fits with

typical December into January El Nino pattern progression. December El Ninos typically feature the

the unfavorable +EPO/+AO/+NAO not very snow pattern. We really got spoiled by the 2002 and

2009 outlier El Nino Decembers.

 

0z 12-4...week 3

 

https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/500za_week3_bg_na.png

 

0Z 12-15....weeks 1-4

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/12/15/the-real-ecmwf-maps/

Is there any way to determine if the week 4 outlook is another pattern change or just a relaxation of our new regime?

[bluewave]

Is there any way to determine if the week 4 outlook is another pattern change or just a relaxation of our new regime?

 

That's a good question, but it's pretty far out in time for the model. I think the signal for the -EPO shift

continuing is strong. But how much blocking we can build and maintain near Greenland or the Davis

Strait is an unknown quantity. The October to December -AO pattern not working out means the degree

of -AO blocking for January and February will be a wait and see affair.

[PB GFI]

That's a good question, but it's pretty far out in time for the model. I think the signal for the -EPO shift

continuing is strong. But how much blocking we can build and maintain near Greenland or the Davis

Strait is an unknown quantity. The October to December -AO pattern not working out means the degree

of -AO blocking for January and February will be a wait and see affair.

With a neg EPO that SE ridge will not exist. You watch how next week's , week 3 show the trough back through the lakes which would be the old week 4.

[CIK62]

Current GFSx shows alot of damage meanwhile over the next  7 days to our monthlty mean with not a single 32 reading and a marshmellow melting +10deg. anomaly.

[Rjay]

That's a good question, but it's pretty far out in time for the model. I think the signal for the -EPO shift

continuing is strong. But how much blocking we can build and maintain near Greenland or the Davis

Strait is an unknown quantity. The October to December -AO pattern not working out means the degree

of -AO blocking for January and February will be a wait and see affair.

With both the gfs and Euro showing a major SSW event through days 5-10 (and possibly past day 10) which ends up splitting the PV at many levels, we are likely to see a -AO for quite a while.

[Allsnow]

Another rainy mild night, rockin december continues sigh

[Brian5671]

Another rainy mild night, rockin december continues sigh

definitely a blah pattern, no cold air and no real warm air, day after day of 40-45 during the day and a rain event every 3-5 days.

[JSantanaNYC]

Another rainy mild night, rockin december continues sigh

the sad part is

.that when the cold comes..I'm cetrain that we won't have so many storms around.. it's wet and warm vs dry and cold