December Forecast Discussion

[WeatherFox]

I was in the park and it sure looked like ~1" to me.  Clearly not 0.5".

Thanks for the verification. SnowGoose69 said the same thing.

[Guest Pamela]

so   you went out of your  to IGNORE  the  best weather mode in  world  and looks at the 2 worst?

 

Not really...just that those maps are outside my price range. 

[Dsnowx53]

my problem is what threat do u see that will deliver that? Although i wanna believe that it seems like its gunna be difficult to get snow around here with the systems on the 21st and 25th give or take...and then after that the months practially over but ill take ur word for it cause ur a met and im not haha

 

 

I may be in the minority in this one, but I like the 21st storm a lot better than the 24/25 storm (as of now). As long we we have a Rex block as strong as guidance is showing, that's going to enhance any 50/50 feature. Assuming the southern wave behaves the way the Euro has it behaving, we'll get height rises out ahead of it, but those height rises run into the confluence from the 50/50 feature and enhance westerly flow aloft. That might aid in pushing the storm closer to being off the coast as opposed to right on the coast. 

 

After that, we don't even know if the 21st storm is going to become a 50/50, and even if it does, there doesn't appear to be a Rex block to enhance it. The 24/25 storm looks like the classic "transition" event where a storm with no blocking and not much of a 50/50 feature runs into cold air digging to its west from the EPO ridge and thus cuts too quickly. Once that storm happens, the cold from the EPO will dive in, and heights should get higher in the NAO region. This helps for perhaps another threat in the 12/25 to 12/31 period. 

 

So I agree with snowgoose that NYC could definitely get 4"+ for the month. 

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro stinks beyond Day 7 these days, I wouldn't disagree with anyone who says that, inside of that it's good so long as you aren't in a La Niña regime, we saw in the last 2 winters that it struggled significantly beyond Day 3 at times...so far it's having it's best fall/winter season since 2010-11..I should emphasize I mean the operational euro, it's ensembles beyond Day 7 are much better as a whole

[Nygmen]

I may be in the minority in this one, but I like the 21st storm a lot better than the 24/25 storm (as of now). As long we we have a Rex block as strong as guidance is showing, that's going to enhance any 50/50 feature. Assuming the southern wave behaves the way the Euro has it behaving, we'll get height rises out ahead of it, but those height rises run into the confluence from the 50/50 feature and enhance westerly flow aloft. That might aid in pushing the storm closer to being off the coast as opposed to right on the coast. 

 

After that, we don't even know if the 21st storm is going to become a 50/50, and even if it does, there doesn't appear to be a Rex block to enhance it. The 24/25 storm looks like the classic "transition" event where a storm with no blocking and not much of a 50/50 feature runs into cold air digging to its west from the EPO ridge and thus cuts too quickly. Once that storm happens, the cold from the EPO will dive in, and heights should get higher in the NAO region. This helps for perhaps another threat in the 12/25 to 12/31 period. 

 

So I agree with snowgoose that NYC could definitely get 4"+ for the month. 

i 100 percent agree with you that the 21st seems to have a better setup and more potential, great post btw

[FreeRain]

my problem is what threat do u see that will deliver that? Although i wanna believe that it seems like its gunna be difficult to get snow around here with the systems on the 21st and 25th give or take...and then after that the months practially over but ill take ur word for it cause ur a met and im not haha

Why not use real words instead of shorthand? 

[Yanksfan]

The Euro stinks beyond Day 7 these days, I wouldn't disagree with anyone who says that, inside of that it's good so long as you aren't in a La Niña regime, we saw in the last 2 winters that it struggled significantly beyond Day 3 at times...so far it's having it's best fall/winter season since 2010-11..I should emphasize I mean the operational euro, it's ensembles beyond Day 7 are much better as a whole

When it comes to miller A's, the Euro is usually spot on. Expect the GFS start to catch on in a couple of days.

[DTWXRISK]

PAMELA  .. EURO  here   is  FREE  

 

 #1     SITE HERE.....  lots  of  maps here...   you can select and  previous  runs to  view as well!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/...  l

 
EURO ENSEMBLE  . great clear maps...   

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/
  

0Z  EWALL   EURO  http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html
0Z   to  DAY 10    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html


 12Z   EURO    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

12Z  EURO   to day   http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

 

 AND HERE
0Z    http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=00&map=na&mod=ecmwf〈=en

12z  http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=ecmwf
 

 

Not really...just that those maps are outside my price range. 

[Guest Pamela]

PAMELA  .. EURO  here   is  FREE  

 

 #1     SITE HERE.....  lots  of  maps here...   you can select and  previous  runs to  view as well!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/...  l

 

EURO ENSEMBLE  . great clear maps...   

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/

  

0Z  EWALL   EURO  http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

0Z   to  DAY 10    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

 12Z   EURO    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

12Z  EURO   to day   http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

 

 AND HERE

0Z    http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=00&map=na&mod=ecmwf〈=en

12z  http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=ecmwf

 

 

Oh thank you...thank you very much. I'll favorite them.

[Yanksfan]

Too bad the Euro doesn't run four times per day.

[WintersGrasp]

Oh thank you...thank you very much. I'll favorite them.

I recently started using tropical tidbits. AWESOME site with very clear, colorful maps

[The 4 Seasons]

DT: Those are all fine and good but you can't see what's happening in between those 24 hour frames nor can you see precip or other critical parameters.

 

Pamela- as far as I know wunderground.com is the only site out there that offers the ECMWF for free with precip, 925mb level, snowfall, cloud cover etc with 3 HOUR INTERVALS. Have to thank my friend matt for this one, truly a great find. I didn't know the EC was out there for free (at least the non free parameters like qpf)

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

 

Go to the right side, click on Model Data, change whatever model is highlighted to ECMWF and then select whatever parameter you want. And its free!

 

DT, I got caught up in watching Kocins presentation last night, someone posted part 2 on here from the 09 conference, so I went to youtube and watched all 11 parts. Then I saw yours and watched the one on the SECS checklist. Very cool, real thorough. You did an excellent presentation following Kocin.

[TWCCraig]

Too bad the Euro doesn't run four times per day.

 

If it did we'd likely see more run to run swings like we see with the GFS only to be corrected 6 hours later.

[DTWXRISK]

  4  seasons    I know about   the   weather underground    euro is  a little  cumbersome and doesnt work very well 

 

DT: Those are all fine and good but you can't see what's happening in between those 24 hour frames nor can you see precip or other critical parameters.

 

Pamela- as far as I know wunderground.com is the only site out there that offers the ECMWF for free with precip, 925mb level, snowfall, cloud cover etc with 3 HOUR INTERVALS. Have to thank my friend matt for this one, truly a great find. I didn't know the EC was out there for free (at least the non free parameters like qpf)

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

 

Go to the right side, click on Model Data, change whatever model is highlighted to ECMWF and then select whatever parameter you want. And its free!

 

DT, I got caught up in watching Kocins presentation last night, someone posted part 2 on here from the 09 conference, so I went to youtube and watched all 11 parts. Then I saw yours and watched the one on the SECS checklist. Very cool, real thorough. You did an excellent presentation following Kocin.

[DTWXRISK]

GREAT  !!

 

 

 

Oh thank you...thank you very much. I'll favorite them.

 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

Yeah I noticed it was glitchy at times and hard to move to a particular hour, but its something for those who don't have access to pay sites. Obviously pay sites for the euro are much better.

[White Gorilla]

i think its best for some people to just sit back and let things play out and stop stressing about something that is completely out of your control

This!

[Guest Pamela]

GREAT  !!

 

 

 

 

 

I get the symbolism...I think.  You'll need to bear with me...I haven't been the to theatre since about 1911....sort of in step with what the cabbie in The In-Laws  once said regarding The Price is Right 's  run. 

[Nygmen]

00z gfs pretty much the same as 18z as the first low basically cuts to or west but another one then forms over georgia...

[Doorman]

DT has no fan base
he has to troll our GFS fun runs?

 

What to make himself look good?

I am honored

you see this
he is feeling the heat (for real) that a weenie thread

our ali/ frazier routine
has more views.... than any of his put together

hows that pattern change thread doing ????

the internet creates very sad egomaniacs
only you and me know
we were playing
and that makes it even sadder

that he has to put on his weather superhero cape for me and (the metro)

 

 

good luck with your goon squad....Commander DT

we wont be back 

 

Tommy E

North Arlington 

New Jersey

[Nygmen]

 

DT has no fan base

he has to troll our GFS fun runs?

 

What to make himself look good?

I am honored

you see this

he is feeling the heat (for real) that a weenie thread

our ali/ frazier routine

has more views.... than any of his put together

hows that pattern change thread doing ????

the internet creates very sad egomaniacs

only you and me know

we were playing

and that makes it even sadder

that he has to put on his weather superhero cape for me and (the metro)

 

 

good luck with your goon squad....Commander DT

we wont be back 

 

Tommy E

North Arlington 

New Jersey

 

1. talk like an actual person

2. admit when ur wrong

3. show some respect

4. and maybe i can take u seriously

[swamplover56]

U have been riding the gfs for days

[Nygmen]

gfs also with big cutter christmas eve going into christmas

[Guest Pamela]

 

DT has no fan base

he has to troll our GFS fun runs?

 

What to make himself look good?

I am honored

you see this

he is feeling the heat (for real) that a weenie thread

our ali/ frazier routine

has more views.... than any of his put together

hows that pattern change thread doing ????

the internet creates very sad egomaniacs

only you and me know

we were playing

and that makes it even sadder

that he has to put on his weather superhero cape for me and (the metro)

 

 

good luck with your goon squad....Commander DT

we wont be back 

 

Tommy E

North Arlington 

New Jersey

 

 

Mr Tolleris is an extremely knowledgeable man; he knows more synoptic meteorology than the vast majority of American forecasters and meteorologists...in both the private & public sectors. 

[SnowGoose69]

The Canadian now has some indications of a storm at 144 hours, so far its been a holdout on this 21st storm.

[atownwxwatcher]

 

DT has no fan base

he has to troll our GFS fun runs?

 

What to make himself look good?

I am honored

you see this

he is feeling the heat (for real) that a weenie thread

our ali/ frazier routine

has more views.... than any of his put together

hows that pattern change thread doing ????

the internet creates very sad egomaniacs

only you and me know

we were playing

and that makes it even sadder

that he has to put on his weather superhero cape for me and (the metro)

 

 

good luck with your goon squad....Commander DT

we wont be back 

 

Tommy E

North Arlington 

New Jersey

 

DT is a very knowledgeable met. He knows his stuff.. 

I been watching the weather models for years AND the ECM is always the first to catch on to the big storms ..GFS is always the last to catch on.. Go back to the GFS at about 72 hrs and under and it will then begin to have a clue. There is a reason why the ECM ranks highest in verification scores!

[SnoSki14]

A badly timed Grinch cutter could actually be the precursor to a blocked and more favorable pattern for snow.

My time frame for our first significant snow event is 12/27-12/31. The 20/21 looks too marginal and the 25th storm is likely a transition storm possibly an archembault event we need to turn things around.

[snywx]

Says snow and rain for me. I guess up here doesnt count.

 

Shows all snow for me.. The term "we" drives me crazy in this forum. If someone is gonna analyze the potential effects of the tri-state area they should try to steer away from the whole "we" term. Its very misleading. Nonetheless this is looking like another interior hit.

 

 

[PhillyBlizzard17]

Euro out to 48....let's see if it stays consistent here

[Superstorm93]

Energy out west looks much different compared to the 12z run through 96 hours. Downstream pattern doesn't look terribly different so things may not wind up too different in the end.