Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 i really hope the pattern change doesnt get pushed back any further it would be very discouraging to not have a good pattern to start off january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 just a quick question would the euro ensemble mean be snow or rain for the coast for the 21st system...ik its colder and further east but still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 i really hope the pattern change doesnt get pushed back any further it would be very discouraging to not have a good pattern to start off january. Don't know if this is a serious post, but who's been pushing back the pattern change? Also, bad post dissing DM. He posts a lot more of value than many, and it's good to have alternate outcomes presented even if you think it's wrong or it's not what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Don't know if this is a serious post, but who's been pushing back the pattern change? Also, bad post dissing DM. He posts a lot more of value than many, and it's good to have alternate outcomes presented even if you think it's wrong or it's not what you want to see. awhile back i heard it was gunna be around the 15th then around the 20th now people are saying after christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 i think its best for some people to just sit back and let things play out and stop stressing about something that is completely out of your control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Guys for the record Tommy and I are cool with each other.DM is a VG poster and it's great that we can all go back and forth with different ideas.I wish there was more of it.We all like the weather. So I hope everyone gets what they want for Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 A number of thoughts... 1. The pattern change will begin around the 17th as a cold front moves eastward. The transitional period will probably last a week +/- a few days. 2. Given repeated runs of the GFS ensembles, ECMWF ensembles, and operational ECMWF, a moderate to possibly significant coastal storm (sizable area with 0.50" qpf or higher) in the 12/21-22 timeframe appears more likely than not. 3. The possible coastal storm would not be a KU snowstorm. The pattern will still be in transition. Coastal areas including the NYC metro area would probably see some snow and perhaps even some accumulation, but the best chance for 4" or more snow would be interior areas i.e., northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern NJ, Orange and Dutchess Counties into northwest Fairfield County. That list is not all inclusive. More time is needed before one can really hone in on the details. 4. Afterward, the pattern should be starting to lock in. At the same time, the subtropical jet will very likely remain active through much or all of the rest of the month. Hence, even as it begins to turn colder, there could be an additional 1-2 storm opportunities before the month concludes. At present, NYC has seen 1.0" snow for December. A 4.0" figure for the month is probably more likely than not. An 8.0" figure might be attainable, but that will depend on how the pattern continues to evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 your posts are terrible and narrow sighted...u ride the gfs way to hard its ridiculous u even got made fun of by dt and called out for it pls stop posting thanks I don't think he's a bad poster at all. I just think he's wrong in this case for trusting the gfs which has shown a completely different solution every run. I feel like he thinks people are humping the one model the shows snow in the area which is usually true but not in this case. I haven't seen anyone seriously discuss precip type for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I don't think he's a bad poster at all. I just think he's wrong in this case for trusting the gfs which has shown a completely different solution every run. I feel like he thinks people are humping the one model the shows snow in the area which is usually true but not in this case. I haven't seen anyone seriously discuss precip type for this event. i agree i over reacted...but i just dont agree with his posts...i live on the north shore of long island and although i am not expecting any snow(im hoping for it though haha) i would ride the EURO with southern stream storms whether or not it has the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Winter storm on tap for weekend before christmas.....nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Winter storm on tap for weekend before christmas.....nice! Is this sarchastic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 You people are analyzing a storm that is a week away. The ensembles will usually be southeast of the op. There is support for a storm and we will not know anything for a few days. Besides, a lot of people here enjoy analyzing a storms that are a week away. I just hope they realize the current limits in weather forecasting. Things have improved, faster super computers & data gathering. The thing we will never get a handle on is the chaos of the atmosphere so long range forecasting (one to three months) will always be very challenging if not impossible to be consistently correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Is this sarchastic? Euro has been consistent with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riverrat Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 A number of thoughts... 1. The pattern change will begin around the 17th as a cold front moves eastward. The transitional period will probably last a week +/- a few days. 2. Given repeated runs of the GFS ensembles, ECMWF ensembles, and operational ECMWF, a moderate to possibly significant coastal storm (sizable area with 0.50" qpf or higher) in the 12/21-22 timeframe appears more likely than not. 3. The possible coastal storm would not be a KU snowstorm. The pattern will still be in transition. Coastal areas including the NYC metro area would probably see some snow and perhaps even some accumulation, but the best chance for 4" or more snow would be interior areas i.e., northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern NJ, Orange and Dutchess Counties into northwest Fairfield County. That list is not all inclusive. More time is needed before one can really hone in on the details. 4. Afterward, the pattern should be starting to lock in. At the same time, the subtropical jet will very likely remain active through much or all of the rest of the month. Hence, even as it begins to turn colder, there could be an additional 1-2 storm opportunities before the month concludes. At present, NYC has seen 1.0" snow for December. A 4.0" figure for the month is probably more likely than not. An 8.0" figure might be attainable, but that will depend on how the pattern continues to evolve. Thank's Don, I've always respected your analysis and it sounds spot on to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Thank's Don, I've always respected your analysis and it sounds spot on to me. Concur, Don should be given an honorary red tag. My only comment concerns the NWS 1" accumulation at Central Park. IMO, that measurement is suspect. In the past we complained that there are not adequately trained personnel to take these snowfall measurements at this location. The NWS should post a trained spotter or one of their mets there instead of relying on the zoo personnel. The day before one half an inch was reported and then it was changed to 1". No sour grapes, just my opinion. Did any of our board members comment on the Manhattan snowfall accumulation on that said day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Concur, Don should be given an honorary red tag. My only comment concerns the NWS 1" accumulation at Central Park. IMO, that measurement is suspect. In the past we complained that there are not adequately trained personnel to take these snowfall measurements at this location. The NWS should post a trained spotter or one of their mets there instead of relying on the zoo personnel. The day before one half an inch was reported and then it was changed to 1". No sour grapes, just my opinion. Did any of our board members comment on the Manhattan snowfall accumulation on that said day. I was out there, there was just over 0.9 at 630pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 DOORMAN ... You may be the dumbest poster I have seen in about 3 years Like every other idiot weenie out there you are comparing apples and oranges. All weather models always Bust on SOME aspect of the storm once event is underway. To compare the fact that the European over BUST on the e snow in central and northeast Pennsylvania is Moronic. The arguemnt from seven days out is not how much snow is or is not going to fall over central PA. if you compare the op EURO to the fact of the G FS had no storm 8 days out ...or 7.5 days or 7 days ...or 6.5 days or 6 days... or 5.5 days ... . Your argument is absurd and ludicrous and without any merit You need take a course in critical reasoning 96 Better yet... How was this guidance for the last overblown euro system post-2352-0-25832600-1417927177.gif I talked about not buying into the typhoon re-curve If you can't recall my post euro love.... rule the roost today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 DOORMAN ... You may be the dumbest poster I have seen in about 3 years Like every other idiot weenie out there you are comparing apples and oranges. All weather models always Bust on SOME aspect of the storm once event is underway. To compare the fact that the European over BUST on the e snow in central and northeast Pennsylvania is Moronic. The arguemnt from seven days out is not how much snow is or is not going to fall over central PA. if you compare the op EURO to the fact of the G FS had no storm 8 days out ...or 7.5 days or 7 days ...or 6.5 days or 6 days... or 5.5 days ... . Your argument is absurd and ludicrous and without any merit You need take a course in critical reasoning +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Concur, Don should be given an honorary red tag. My only comment concerns the NWS 1" accumulation at Central Park. IMO, that measurement is suspect. In the past we complained that there are not adequately trained personnel to take these snowfall measurements at this location. The NWS should post a trained spotter or one of their mets there instead of relying on the zoo personnel. The day before one half an inch was reported and then it was changed to 1". No sour grapes, just my opinion. Did any of our board members comment on the Manhattan snowfall accumulation on that said day. I was in the park and it sure looked like ~1" to me. Clearly not 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 NO he is bad poster... sorry . NOT over his opinions per se but because he will assert that a bust on part of storm is the same thing as another model having NO event for days and days and days I don't think he's a bad poster at all. I just think he's wrong in this case for trusting the gfs which has shown a completely different solution every run. I feel like he thinks people are humping the one model the shows snow in the area which is usually true but not in this case. I haven't seen anyone seriously discuss precip type for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 DT with the way the pattern is, do you believe the euro runs could be coming true? I mean the 50 50 low is everything right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 yeah I see what you mean no snow there Really does not look terribly snowy anywhere in the Northeast over the next 10 days / 240 hours...rare for mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 NYC ain't getting out of this month without at least 4-5 inches of snow, I guess it's possible but it's going to require major dodging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 NYC ain't getting out of this month without at least 4-5 inches of snow, I guess it's possible but it's going to require major dodging. my problem is what threat do u see that will deliver that? Although i wanna believe that it seems like its gunna be difficult to get snow around here with the systems on the 21st and 25th give or take...and then after that the months practially over but ill take ur word for it cause ur a met and im not haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 WHY? Please save yourselves time and wait for a few days to look at the GFS for next weekends storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 yeah I see what you mean no snow there ECM_12_opUS_SF_0610.png Just based on a cursory check of the Canadien & GFS...ECMWF was not considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I was out there, there was just over 0.9 at 630pm Okay, that's then good enough for me. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 WHY? I think he's essentially agreeing with you that the GFS will not have a clue for at least another several days, since it is always inferior to the Euro at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 the 6z GFS has a Low of 1011 mb no cold ar movign die east of hatteras the 12z Sunday euro had 987mb 50 miles east of ACT with 12"+ snow over t WVA the shenandoah valley much western MD and much of PA Yes great call DOORMAN ... yes the EURO caved to the GFS... Yeah, pretty idiotic to think the smoothed out ens mean which still shows a big storm mean it is caving to a non event like the 6z GFS shows, not sure WTH doorman is looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 so you went out of your to IGNORE the best weather mode in world and looks at the 2 worst? Just based on a cursory check of the Canadien & GFS...ECMWF was not considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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