PB GFI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The Ole Rope a Dope-- MO Mt Holly http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THIS PERIOD HAS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MODELED TO FORM TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO OUR NORTH COUPLED WITH A LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY OF HEIGHTS TO REBOUND NORTH IN THIS PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR COLDER AIR TO LINGER. AS A RESULT, THIS LOW COULD HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF US FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A MORE INLAND TRACK WOULD LEAD TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THE LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS ARE MORE INTENSE IN TERMS OF LOWER PRESSURE, TRACKING A LOW FROM ALABAMA NORTHEAST UP THE COAST. THE CMC MODEL IS QUITE A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED AND SHEARS THE SYSTEM INTO PIECES KEEPING A WEAKSHORTWAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST, DISCOUNTING THIS. WE ALSO HAVE THE 12Z GFS WHICH HAS A LOW TRACKING TO BUFFALO BEFORE FORMING AN AWKWARD SECONDARY LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. APPARENT MODEL BIASES APPEAR TO BE AT WORK WITH THE GFS AS IT FORMS THE LOW VERY FAR NORTH OVER TEXAS. A HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THEUKMET. THE UKMET HAS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE ECMWF TILL SATURDAY MORNING BUT IS MUCH WEAKER. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT 1/2 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, 1/4 HIRES GFS AND 1/4 UKMET. THIS PLACES NO EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHLY INTENSE ECMWF OR THE HIGHLY SUSPECT 12ZGFS SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN MIND, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST TO EASTERN TENNESSEE SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A COASTAL LOW OFF VIRGINA BEACH DEVELOPS WHICH THEN SLIDES EAST/NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS TRACK ALLOWS FOR BOTH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE FALL LINE AND POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COASTAL SECTIONS MOST LIKELY TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME. INTERIOR AREAS SUCH AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE STAYING ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DETAILS ARE SILL UNCERTAIN IN THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM, PLEASE STAY TUNED TO TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. So what you do here ..is mold every euro run till it gives you snow???? 9nhwbg_conus.gif http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Frazier Corner throws in the Towel Well there is some swelling above your right eye ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is colder and more east than the op. total mean is weaker and further east then the op -987 0p vs. 1006 mean --- the 850 mean is marginal and the surface is too warm which equals liquid in the immediate metro although its not impossible for a flake or 2 to mix in http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121412/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Upton is saying all rain and I agree - I think that Euro run is not cold enough http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Says snow and rain for me. I guess up here doesnt count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 You people are analyzing a storm that is a week away. The ensembles will usually be southeast of the op. There is support for a storm and we will not know anything for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 total mean is weaker and further east then the op -987 0p mean 1006 the 850 mean is marginal and the surface is too warm which equals liquid in the immediate metro http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121412/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_8.png Thanks NAO like the 6Z GFS run I posted this morning THAT JUST CAN'T BE The Euro Ens caves to a 6Z GFS op run???? Weenie T-shirts for everyone!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Says snow and rain for me. I guess up here doesnt count. just says snow and rain in evening at the start then a change to all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 just says snow and rain in evening at the start then a change to all rain Nope, snow and rain sunday. SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. SUNDAY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Nope, snow and rain sunday. SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. SUNDAY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. you in the Bronx ? this is where i got it http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121412/gfs-ens_uv250_eus.html Bermuda Low..... Anyone??? guidance trends .... not a snow molded agenda dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 you in the Bronx ? this is where i got it http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html No, rockland. It also said the same for orange, putnam, westchester, etc...upton isnt calling for all rain. Maybe for some sections, but not everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 No, rockland. It also said the same for orange, putnam, westchester, etc...upton isnt calling for all rain. Maybe for some sections, but not everywhere. there is a separate folder for the NW burbs I am only discussing immediate NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Thanks NAO like the 6Z GFS run I posted this morning THAT JUST CAN'T BE The Euro Ens caves to a 6Z GFS op run???? Weenie T-shirts for everyone!!!! 5f0c9a1cf099e34a2e8af0aa18d.gif NOT EVEN A LITTLE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Isnt true without blocking in place;it would have to be perfect storm track for snow event/coast city etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 No, rockland. It also said the same for orange, putnam, westchester, etc...upton isnt calling for all rain. Maybe for some sections, but not everywhere. Yup, here is my point and click for me, Saturday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 3 GFS runs and yet another solution . Bowling for answers .... So lets recap . 6z Sends a center to ORD then sends a secondary due east off the MA 12z Sends a center to Toronto as it pops a secondary off OBX and takes it ENE 200 miles E of the BM 18z Sends a center to Beckley reforms a center at OBX and takes it NE then swings it back towards CC . Gun to your head which of the 3 if any do you go with . The Euro for 3 days is roughly showing you 1 center ( a miller A ) off OBX to the BM . And the argument like it always is comes down where the R/S sets up on the coastal plain . Point and click , GIGO . Plain and simple . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Hasn't the gfs been woefully bad and the upgrade even worse? The euro has been really good so far, no reason to really stray from that. Gfs has been late to the party every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Isnt true without blocking in place;it would have to be perfect storm track for snow event/coast city etc. No, there are many cases of good snows without it, it just makes things tougher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 NOT EVEN A LITTLE . Paul You know this system is trending east... Euro paint bleeds on the paper http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&cycle=20141214%2012%20UTC¶m=500_522_564_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 We wouldn't even talking about storm threats past 3-5 days if there was no Euro model. And you can imagine how even big a miss there would be on storms right up to the short term like February 2013 and many others. Can you believe all this time and money and the upgrade is a downgrade .If we did this in the private sector they would hold the door . Terrible . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Paul You know this system is trending east... Euro paint bleeds on the paper gefs-spag_atlantic_168_500_522_564_ht.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&cycle=20141214%2012%20UTC¶m=500_522_564_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area DM, how did the GFS and its ensembles do for Hagupit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Can you believe all this time and money and the upgrade is a downgrade .If we did this in the private sector they would hold the door . Terrible . I would like to know who makes the decisions on how to develop these models and how to tweak them to perform better - what agencies in the various countries ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Isnt true without blocking in place;it would have to be perfect storm track for snow event/coast city etc. We have a rex block, 50/50 low and North Atlantic ridge and Rockies ridge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 DM, how did the GFS and its ensembles do for Hagupit? 96 Better yet... How was this guidance for the last overblown euro system I talked about not buying into the typhoon re-curve If you can't recall my post euro love.... rule the roost today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 96 Better yet... How was this guidance for the last overblown euro system post-2352-0-25832600-1417927177.gif I posted about not buying into the typhoon re-curve If you can't recall my post euro love.... rule the roost today I am trying to figure out which GFS should we buy today ? The center moving to Bermuda or the one to Chicago. You still haven't resolved that for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I am trying to figure out which GFS should we buy today ? The center moving to Bermuda or the one to Chicago. You still haven't resolved that for me. The key is to window shop - Until you find the one giving you snow EAST TREND GFS and EURO ENS today need a hug brother?? http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=hemi-wv-48 70 peeps in the house for a system a week away the snow starvation is sad keep choppin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Please save yourselves time and wait for a few days to look at the GFS for next weekends storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Really does not look terribly snowy anywhere in the Northeast over the next 10 days / 240 hours...rare for mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The key is to window shop - Until you find the one giving you snow EAST TREND GFS and EURO ENS today need a hug brother?? http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=hemi-wv-48 70 peeps in the house for a system a week away the snow starvation is sad keep choppin your posts are terrible and narrow sighted...u ride the gfs way to hard its ridiculous u even got made fun of by dt and called out for it pls stop posting thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The key is to window shop - Until you find the one giving you snow EAST TREND GFS and EURO ENS today need a hug brother?? http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=hemi-wv-48 70 peeps in the house for a system a week away the snow starvation is sad I don't need snow to show the euro is the superior model . It's consistent as it takes an OBX to CC track . I don't look at R/S lines 7 days out. Your model needs a Xanax . Look at its variance . Its Dizzying . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 there is a separate folder for the NW burbs I am only discussing immediate NYC metro Rockland IS the immediate nyc metro. Regardless, this is a discussion thread for the entire subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.