DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 it is NOT being discontinued this week 2nd I was making a point .. about why WHY for YEARS I have loathed the GFS for east coast winter storms yet TV station after TV station up and down the east coast ALWAYS look at it then look atthe Euro and end up saying " the model are all over the place" why are you even looking at a model that is being discontinued this week ? The Para is taking over.....suggestion to all - don't even look at the old GFS just look at the Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Take a look at those surface temps from EWR west. Close shave. wind direction must be off the low to mid 40's atlantic if its huggging the coast - how did we get the snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 next question - being a coastal hugger what is the wind direction in the metro ? 0 LINE JUST INLAND FROM s NJ to NYC to BOS ... Low is VERY close to the coast this means that once the GFS gets within 84 hrs and it shifts east.. as the gfs always does we can anticipate the usual... "its come east " banter ... and the oldie but goodie " the euro hadnt been right all season" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 50/ 50 LOWS gotta love em... cannnot get the big one without em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 50/ 50 LOWS gotta love em... cannnot get the big one without em A west based -NAO couldn't hurt either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 only good thing about this run there is still time for changes since its still a week away - this run is not going to cut it in the metro too warm - this would work in January not now water too warm verbatim the city would get a good thump then prob dry slot/drizzel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 verbatim the city would get a good thump then prob dry slot/drizzel ok I looked at the model and I agree - must be a tremendous amount of dynamic cooling going on with a storm that strong really a thread the needle situation for us http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121412/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The airmass is still a lot colder this run, though. This is because the H5 low didn't close off nearly as early. Look at how much more cold 850s are in our vicinity this run vs 12z. That could have major implications if we were to get a 50 mile shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 verbatim the city would get a good thump then prob dry slot/drizzel H7 dries out at 168 it looks like verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The airmass is still a lot colder this run, though. This is because the H5 low didn't close off nearly as early. Look at how much more cold 850s are in our vicinity this run vs 12z. That could have major implications if we were to get a 50 mile shift east.Looks a tick colder than the T giving storm. EWR could b ok with that set up. Still KNYC is just a tick or 2 above from where they need to be. I agree though it's close and this runs the entire coast. So it's brutal for holiday travel in a lot of spots regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The airmass is still a lot colder this run, though. This is because the H5 low didn't close off nearly as early. Look at how much more cold 850s are in our vicinity this run vs 12z. That could have major implications if we were to get a 50 mile shift east. 2m dewpoints are in the upper teens and lower 20s around the area at 18z Saturday as well. Could be some cooling at the onset. Faster timing is better for us all snowise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 2m dewpoints are in the upper teens and lower 20s around the area at 18z Saturday as well. Could be some cooling at the onset. Faster timing is better for us all snowise. Good point. We could definitely get a front-end thump with that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Thanks to td and the rest of the red green taggers contributing love to learn from you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 If the 50-50 low quickly exits the way the Euro has it doing now when the storm is coming, there won't be much to stop a coastal hugger and torch for places near the coast. There's also no high in a good spot to lock cold air in. This is where it's good to have blocking-to force the 50-50 low to stay and force an offshore track. This reminds me a lot of the storm last Dec 20th which had a couple of inches of slop near me and then tons of rain to wash it all away, but 6"+ of snow just inland. As soon as the coastal front and wind shift happened for me, the heavy precip started and we torched 10 degrees in a half hour. Until the upper air pattern changes, this isn't a storm I'm excited for in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 It's also 12 hours faster than 0z that's why u see this so close. We always said the key here Is the speed of either SW Another 12 hours faster and we semi catch the 17th and thwart the E flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 If the 50-50 low quickly exits the way the Euro has it doing now when the storm is coming, there won't be much to stop a coastal hugger and torch for places near the coast. There's also no high in a good spot to lock cold air in. This is where it's good to have blocking-to force the 50-50 low to stay and force an offshore track. This reminds me a lot of the storm last Dec 20th which had a couple of inches of slop near me and then tons of rain to wash it all away, but 6"+ of snow just inland. As soon as the coastal front and wind shift happened for me, the heavy precip started and we torched 10 degrees in a half hour. Until the upper air pattern changes, this isn't a storm I'm excited for in my area. You mean the 14th? Thats when temps kept dropping through the 20s and nobody thought the change to ice and rain would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 You mean the 14th? Thats when temps kept dropping through the 20s and nobody thought the change to ice and rain would happen I think that was the day I went from 23 to 34 in like 30 mins and then up to 45 the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Upton is saying all rain and I agree - I think that Euro run is not cold enough http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I think that was the day I went from 23 to 34 in like 30 mins and then up to 45 the next hour. Yep, that was the one. I was waiting and waiting for the front end that mostly didn't happen, and then as the real precip arrived the winds turned onshore and I went from mid 20s to 40s in under an hour. Another hour later it was as if it never snowed. That's why it's always hard for me to get excited for a storm that's supposed to produce at the beginning but then go to a dry slot when it warms up. Far more often than not here the warm air arrives a lot sooner. Locally, 2/13/14 was another such fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Upton is saying all rain and I agree - I think that Euro run is not cold enough http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html There's a chance that the system out west could act as a kicker, but there's nothing aloft stopping this from being another torch coastal hugger. Therefore, it's pretty likely to end up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The 17ths SW has not cleared the playing field yet at 150 . The mean is east and colder but 7 days out one should look at the members to get a clearer picture . There are several members to close for comfort . IMO if the 21st SW is 6 hours faster or the 17ths just a little slower in its movement E then we are really close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I expect the next storm to be a big threat too, currently the Euro appears it's going to want to cut it west but remember it did with this one too at around Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Do the models still have the pattern change around the 20th Or did they push it back again???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 It could be a frustrating couple weeks where again it's close but no cigar or they cut west until things finally are able to support a real snow pattern. Things look promising afterwards but too far out to be certain. Could add a few to several more inches of rain this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Upton is saying all rain and I agree - I think that Euro run is not cold enough http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Verbatim per reliable euro snow maps (not wxbell) 4 in line bisects Long Island and 8in line touches NW part of nyc. Everyone nw of 95 is 8+. This is several days out but your opinion of what the euro showed is incorrect. And look at a forecast discussion don't post the text forecast which will not explain any thinking. The reality is this will likely change and the overall pattern and cold air in place is not great so certainly could trend in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 With those higher heights over Hudson bay it should NOT cut . You can see here its holding to much energy behind in the SW it so its slow to eject . With a trough into Europe would think this should go to OBX not ORD . The Ole Rope a Dope-- MO Mt Holly http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THIS PERIOD HAS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MODELED TO FORM TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO OUR NORTH COUPLED WITH A LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY OF HEIGHTS TO REBOUND NORTH IN THIS PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR COLDER AIR TO LINGER. AS A RESULT, THIS LOW COULD HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF US FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A MORE INLAND TRACK WOULD LEAD TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THE LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS ARE MORE INTENSE IN TERMS OF LOWER PRESSURE, TRACKING A LOW FROM ALABAMA NORTHEAST UP THE COAST. THE CMC MODEL IS QUITE A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED AND SHEARS THE SYSTEM INTO PIECES KEEPING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST, DISCOUNTING THIS. WE ALSO HAVE THE 12Z GFS WHICH HAS A LOW TRACKING TO BUFFALO BEFORE FORMING AN AWKWARD SECONDARY LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. APPARENT MODEL BIASES APPEAR TO BE AT WORK WITH THE GFS AS IT FORMS THE LOW VERY FAR NORTH OVER TEXAS. A HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET. THE UKMET HAS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE ECMWF TILL SATURDAY MORNING BUT IS MUCH WEAKER. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT 1/2 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, 1/4 HIRES GFS AND 1/4 UKMET. THIS PLACES NO EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHLY INTENSE ECMWF OR THE HIGHLY SUSPECT 12Z GFS SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN MIND, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST TO EASTERN TENNESSEE SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A COASTAL LOW OFF VIRGINA BEACH DEVELOPS WHICH THEN SLIDES EAST/NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS TRACK ALLOWS FOR BOTH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE FALL LINE AND POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COASTAL SECTIONS MOST LIKELY TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME. INTERIOR AREAS SUCH AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE STAYING ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DETAILS ARE SILL UNCERTAIN IN THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM, PLEASE STAY TUNED TO TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. So what you do here ..is mold every euro run till it gives you snow???? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Frazier Corner throws in the Towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Damn shades of 07/08. Coastal nightmare inland bounty. Just like I feared. It looks like we are going to have to wait till January. For any real hopes. In a marginal situation elevation is going to win out all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Verbatim per reliable euro snow maps (not wxbell) 4 in line bisects Long Island and 8in line touches NW part of nyc. Everyone nw of 95 is 8+. This is several days out but your opinion of what the euro showed is incorrect. And look at a forecast discussion don't post the text forecast which will not explain any thinking. The reality is this will likely change and the overall pattern and cold air in place is not great so certainly could trend in the wrong direction. I'll post whatever I feel like -if you don't like it take a hike - I am being nice - I have been saying all along the last few days I thought it would be liquid ..........I mentioned we are in a step down pattern 17th and 21st rain and colder air to work with for the 24th storm with possible 50/50 and neg nao developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is colder and more east than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I think it's interesting that the stubborn lobe of the PV thats been hanging around Greenland starts to drop south towards Hudsons Bay as we head towards Jan. with ridging trying to build over the top. Have to see how it goes, but EPS and GEFS both show this near the end of their runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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