Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I worked my ass off in here with my data posts and you bring this crap how about some insight instead of insults JFC Banter: talk or exchange remarks in a good-humored teasing way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Mo- your mixing apples and oranges your doing temp profiles today (euro style) I was showing track guidance with gfs ens and op run Why are we putting a label on these systems so early without any consensus??? Mitch Miller forecast ...... follow the bouncing ball 1. I couldn't be more clear that days 1 thru 15 was going to turn out colder than normal after the CPC back on Nov 29th had its 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 guidance above... we can put a check In that box. 2 Yesterday you posted CPC latest guidance for the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 which was warm . I said BS not Gona happen Dec 20 - 31 will be below normal. The euro ensembles support me. 3 I said some snow xmas week.. yesterday your question was where's the cold air to support it. Today you are arguing suppression . ( which would have to imply colder than normal ) right ? I mean why would LP slip to you S if there wasn't air pressing down in the NE My issue is the GFS. I see your argument but you are going fishing with a hammer. Just trying to give the better tools so you don't waste the day out on the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 WHY in god's name would anyone use not only the OP gfs BUT THE 6z GFS for east coast threats is beyond me it screwed last week storms BIG time.. it neve the event until 96 hours out then it was way too cold which lead to many forecast for snow IN NYC area and it was god awful for NOV 26 event gfs-ens_uv250_eus_41.png GFS ENS 250mb Upper Air Pattern for Xmas Eve run the loop it slides off - HOT- (fast) not a positive trend for turning up the coast -imho run comparison http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121406/gfs-ens_uv250_eus_comp240.html yes.... I know its simplification but nice guidance nonetheless GFS 6z op run shows this trend---- at the surface level 5f0c9a1cf099e34a2e8af0aa18d.gif http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 My issue is the GFS. I see your argument but you are going fishing with a hammer. Just trying to give the better tools so you don't waste the day out on the water Paul better tools perhaps explaining the JET STREAM influence on the GFS track guidance Zonal Flow is not suppression thru Christmas after that time frame the Euro Guidance and the CPC temp maps can have at it understood??? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 DUDE ... 1st the PV is NOT needed. In fact having the PV come way south is actually NOT good for east coast snowstorms . 2 the map you posted is SATURDAY .,...all CPC products from Saturday are computer generated so whatever the GFS says that is what the 6-10 DAY n and 8-14 day will show Good Morning Cassius WPC take on temp trends (min temp anomaly) http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif tem.gif Where is the PV????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 again 100000000% GFS Generated ... all 6-10 day and 8-14 day coc maps are a straight rip and read of the op GFS better tools perhaps but look at my craftsmanship explaining the JET STREAM influence on the GFS track guidance Zonal Flow is not suppression thru Christmas after that time frame the Euro Guidance and the CPC temp maps can have at it understood??? cpt.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 WHY in god's name would anyone use not only the OP gfs BUT THE 6z GFS for east coast threats is beyond me it screwed last week storms BIG time.. it neve the event until 96 hours out then it was way too cold which lead to many forecast for snow IN NYC area and it was god tawful for NOV 26 event And look what it does at 12z. Goes from suppression to Toronto .I like the euro s idea takes a miller A. Once east of the MISS it has to get its feet wet and should follow the warm water off the EC .Any COD on the the coastal plain ( if any ) will b a result of the 17th system But ths doesn't cut or just slide out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 WHY in god's name would anyone use not only the OP gfs BUT THE 6z GFS for east coast threats is beyond me it screwed last week storms BIG time.. it neve the event until 96 hours out then it was way too cold which lead to many forecast for snow IN NYC area and it was god awful for NOV 26 event The floor is all yours.... This was not a final a forecast showing Jet Stream guidance in relationship to the latest Op run 250mb guidance on the GFS ENS is steady and true dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 about the PV.... This is a huge switch from pervious runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 about the PV.... This is a huge switch from pervious runs gfs_z500a_nhem_49.png You've had some pretty damn spot on analysis lately DT. promising signs for EC snowstorms 21st and later. Looks like we will be rocking into new years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 one can NOT use a model.. anyone model... to prove that the model is correct / accurate etc this is like citing the Bible to prove the Bible is the word of god.... ONLY an idiot would do that since we all alreadyknow that the bible is going to tell us or its like going to a marxist and asking if his communism works. There is only 1 possible answer from a marxist view point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 about the PV.... This is a huge switch from pervious runs gfs_z500a_nhem_49.png Excuse me DT but why not baby sit the pattern change topic you opened on all the regional threads??? we out for the day folks Trolling has become its own profession Tommy E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 suppression has actually worked out for our area, if we are going to get a great snowstorm here with no mixing, either we need the track to be suppressed SOMEWHAT so we are on the northern (ish) side of the storm or we need very cold air to the north. otherwise we are going to have to "thread the needle." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Actually suppression is needed for snows in NYC and the coast. I have a rule for snowstorms in monmouth county, when people start talking suppression it's time to get the ruler out. Give me the cold and I'll find the snow. Bring on the PV, bring it ad far south as you want, snow will eventually get us good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 It's good to have you back in here DT, keep some of the weenies in line who believe their own press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Excuse me DT but why not baby sit the pattern change topic you opened on all the regional threads??? we out for the day folks Trolling has become its own profession Tommy E You have been around long enough to know DT's style. Don't ley it get to you. I am glad to see he is back here posting and actually he seems to have mellowed somewhat. You have been posting some great stuff. As far as the banter goes, I am getting a lot of information out of the 'banter'. It's fun reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 hr 132 nice look on the 12z euro…50/50 low holding strong and nice High pressure…..low is over Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 hr 144 12z saturday snow pushing into dca…low over northern GA…..high pressure over Wis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 hr 150 18z saturday low over northern SC….mason dixon line south getting rocked…snow from bwi-dca-west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 REGULAR GFS vs 13KM GFS ABOUT DEC 20-21 EAST COAST THREAT This is one of the reasons why I hate the operational GFS past 84 hours for East coast storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 hr 162 994 just south of acy…..eastern PA..northern nj…..getting crushed…mid level issues long island…central and souther nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Low comes further west closer to coast this run as the high over the GL is weaker than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 REGULAR GFS vs 13KM GFS ABOUT DEC 20-21 EAST COAST THREAT This is one of the reasons why I hate the operational GFS past 84 hours for East coast storms Being that the parallel will be the GFS, you're thinking it will be a much more accurate model? If so...that's very good. America can maybe have a solid weather model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 REGULAR GFS vs 13KM GFS ABOUT DEC 20-21 EAST COAST THREAT This is one of the reasons why I hate the operational GFS past 84 hours for East coast storms why are you even looking at a model that is being discontinued this week ? The Para is taking over.....suggestion to all - don't even look at the old GFS just look at the Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 basically a costal hugger on the euro……trough goes negative over ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 basically a costal hugger on the euro……trough goes negative over ohio what is the location of the HP to the north ? Is it moving ? Is it blocked ? How strong is it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 where is the location of the HP to the north ? It's significantly weaker than 0z centered north of the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 where is the location of the HP to the north ? Is it moving ? Is it blocked ? How strong is it ? over the great lakes its just weaker this run….the coast gets a good amount of snow verbatim this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 over the great lakes its just weaker this run….the coast gets a good amount of snow verbatim this run next question - being a coastal hugger what is the wind direction in the metro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 It's significantly weaker than 0z centered north of the GL. Take a look at those surface temps from EWR west. Close shave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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