Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 High pressure at that time is situated North of the great lakes.. ecm.png Granted paltry air mass in place (not arctic) but nothing IMHO wrong with the position of the high! Is that a miller B moving east, or a miller A moving northeast? I haven't seen the frames before.... A miller B in this setup could give decent snows doe many. Probably rain to snow for our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 A snow event would seem unlikely given a very positive NAO and probably positive AO. The PNA is doing its thing though and sometimes that could be enough. There's also more cold air available and even a high present in a decent location so a lot is going to depend on the what the storm itself does. Latest gfs really weakens it but it's been waffling so much that I can't take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 High pressure at that time is situated North of the great lakes.. ecm.png Granted paltry air mass in place (not arctic) but nothing IMHO wrong with the position of the high! I would say there is an error with the placement of either the HP or the LP on that run..........if it were to verify that way which is doubtful that is not snow here with southeast winds bringing in warm air off the atlantic with an LP in that position... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I would say there is an error with the placement of either the HP or the LP on that run..........if it were to verify that way which is doubtful that is not snow here with southeast winds bringing in warm air off the atlantic with an LP in that position...They are prob east not southeast that center is just off your east. But east kills you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 They are prob east not southeast that center is just off your east. But east kills you too. ok east then - that setup might work if there was an arctic airmass in place previous to the storm arriving and temps in the teens and water temps in the mid 30's but not with the airmass above freezing previous to the storm and water temps probably still above 40 - water temps are still in the mid 40's today http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.sxus81.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 ok east then - that setup might work if there was an arctic airmass in place previous to the storm arriving and temps in the teens and water temps in the mid 30's but not with the airmass above freezing previous to the storm and water temps probably still above 40 - water temps are still in the mid 40's today http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.sxus81.KPHI.html It won't be good for the city of nearby burbs but further north and west i may be good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 PURE MILLER a Is that a miller B moving east, or a miller A moving northeast? I haven't seen the frames before.... A miller B in this setup could give decent snows doe many. Probably rain to snow for our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 if you had a brain you would be dangerous the criticism is over the Methods used not the met really ? Some of the brainiacs around here think they have the long range all figured out already........One thing I don't like about who I was talking about is the bragging when he might be correct and then being critical of fellow METS in the business in advance....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 ABOUT DEC 21 and 12z euro run The cold air supply is limited... The over all Upper air pattern not great. This is a marginal situation for the interior and rain that ends as snow for the COAST. For western NC Mtns WVA western half of VA western half of MD .. most of PA this could be a SIGNIFICANT SNOW.. COULD BE..from PHL to BOS again very mariginal on the coast...12z EURO shows wet snow or mix SIGNIFICANT SNOW Inland As I said the KEY is the DEC 17 Low ( all rain for the all fo the east coast) . It is the rapid development of the DEC 17 Low into a BIG Low over SE Canada THAT sets up the DEC 21 Low winter storm threat. ** IF the big low of SE cnada does not develop or if it moves away .. DEC 21 coastal Low ai all rain for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Good analysis. Given such a seemingly unfavorable snow pattern it would be quite a win to score this thread the needle event. It seems we actually have a little more to work with compared to the last two events starting with the late November storm in terms of cold air available and the placement of certain features. And yeah everything lies on what happens with the low before it. I wonder if the storm on the 21st will also affect what happens after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Christmas week starts the pattern . Big picture here are those heights that start to connect over the top after day 10 . The euro ensembles cluster is further east but the key is the 17th system. You need that on the playing field or East winds cook you. Not sure what the control run is seeing because it actually drills the MA then heads due east. The ensembles are further north probably the better solution. But there is no WARM air in this pattern. It's done by Wednesday . We are close to normal for a few then colder than normal on the back end of the curve. Someone needs to call CPC they are going to need a touch of blue ink . Days 10 thru 15 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 if you had a brain you would be dangerous the criticism is over the Methods used not the met OK I have challenge for you - you are invited to enter my 2014/2015 snowfall contest ! Lets see how good you actually are - the predictions are for NYC Central Park http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44832-predict-the-monthly-and-seasonal-20142015-nyc-snowfall/ Dec - Jan - Feb- March - April - May - Total Season - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 gfs is rain for almost every one, takes way to long for the low to transfer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Nice -EPO building on the Euro Ens. days 10 - 15. From what I can recall, this month was always supposed to be a step down month. Gradually, into a colder pattern towards Jan and forward from there. Seems pretty much on track to me, individual storms aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 OK I have challenge for you - you are invited to enter my 2014/2015 snowfall contest ! Lets see how good you actually are Hotshot - the predictions are for NYC Central Park http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44832-predict-the-monthly-and-seasonal-20142015-nyc-snowfall/ Dec - Jan - Feb- March - April - May - Total Season - Yes bc guessing snow totals proves something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 gfs is rain for almost every one, takes way to long for the low to transfer to the coast. It should be transferring a lot fast and the main storm shouldn't be going that far north given a well defined 50/50 low. Granted it could still be too warm even then but not as warm as the gfs shows. Wait a few days until there's more consistency because so far each run has been different. Gfs LR brings the arctic hammer down and winter really kicks off unfortunately it occurs after the storms come through but again we're talking one LR gfs OP run which is mostly fantasy anyway. It's best to just use the ensembles as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 GFS is really stormy and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 GFS is really stormy and cold Let's look at 5 days or under. You can always find what you want long range. We are about to enter the much hyped period of December 15th-end of month Monday. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 It should be transferring a lot fast and the main storm shouldn't be going that far north given a well defined 50/50 low. Granted it could still be too warm even then but not as warm as the gfs shows. Wait a few days until there's more consistency because so far each run has been different. Gfs LR brings the arctic hammer down and winter really kicks off unfortunately it occurs after the storms come through but again we're talking one LR gfs OP run which is mostly fantasy anyway. It's best to just use the ensembles as of now. GFS always shows some super cold solution at the end of the run which never happens - also thats what we don't want that frigid polar vortex sinking too far south to suppress the storm track so its snowing in the Carolinas while we watch the cirrus clouds float through the southern skyline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Yes bc guessing snow totals proves something... well since you don't care you want me to remove your name from the contest ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 GFS always shows some super cold solution at the end of the run which never happens - also thats what we don't want that frigid polar vortex sinking too far south to suppress the storm track so its snowing in the Carolinas while we watch the cirrus clouds float through the southern skylineagreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 GFS actually showing snow cover in New Orleans and top third of Florida by the 29th.! Never gonna happen. Wonder if New Orleans ever had more snow on the ground than New York City at the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 GFS actually showing snow cover in New Orleans and top third of Florida by the 29th.! Never gonna happen. Wonder if New Orleans ever had more snow on the ground than New York City at the same time?first mistake was looking at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Wonder if New Orleans ever had more snow on the ground than New York City at the same time? Of course that's happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Mother Of Gawd. BOMB on Christmas Eve/Day on the GFS/ holy mother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJeff1019 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Mother Of Gawd. BOMB on Christmas Eve/Day on the GFS/ holy mother Yeah that's quite a sight.... Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Mother Of Gawd. BOMB on Christmas Eve/Day on the GFS/ holy mother That storm then pumps massive ridging over Greenland... but since this is post D10, details should be taken with a large grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 That storm then pumps massive ridging over Greenland... but since this is post D10, details should be taken with a large grain of salt. Yup there's your white Christmas though borderline and your NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Mother Of Gawd. BOMB on Christmas Eve/Day on the GFS/ holy mother yes the GFS gives us a Christmas present in its final days - but we will probably have to return it because it sure does look defective http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121400/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png Then at 6Z the Good For Sh*t model has a different solution this why you don't look at this model past 3 days http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Plenty of Pacific air in place ahead of the storm instead of Arctic. That's the risk that you run with a +EPO and +AO/+NAO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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