bluewave Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 December tornado in LA and rain a few days later in NYC. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amCEWi_-izQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 PB Look up the verification scores for the euro on the Pac side and get back to me thanks dm So this goes beyond ver scores . When you see SWs in the SW on the euro one HAS to know they are traditionally slow to eject . Ver score doesn't show you that time tested errors in the model show you that . So when you see an exiting SW in the east that crossed in 3 days as the fire hose on the W coast is open its REALLY EASY to assume that one of these 2 SWs are goin to come out faster . See Tommy when you have been at this as long as I have you can look beyond the pretty colors on a map . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 So this goes beyond ver scores . When you see SWs in the SW on the euro one HAS to know they are traditionally slow to eject . Ver score doesn't show you that time tested errors in the model show you that . So when you see an exiting SW in the east that crossed in 3 days as the fire hose on the cali coast is open its REALLY EASY to assume that one of these 2 SWs are goin to come out faster . See Tommy when you have been at this as long as I have you can look beyond the pretty colors on a map . Paulie you are feeling me tho the fear is creeping in hang your hat on the Euro this is way to much fun http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NHEM_f264wbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Paulie you are feeling me tho the fear is creeping in hang your hat on the Euro this is way to much fun http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NHEM_f264wbg.gif Euro vs GFS . I like it we can lay the leather all winter . I Call Ali first you gotta be Fraizer . Dec Jan Feb . Trilogy for trilogy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Euro vs GFS . I like it we can lay the leather all winter . I Call Ali first you gotta be Fraizer . Dec Jan Feb . Trilogy for trilogy . Tropic Lift will be the perfect Cosell Game on http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 He was predicting a warm November a few days prior to November 1st - case closed............ Everybody was and everybody was wrong...why does everybody here think LR forecasting past a week is an exact science?..IT ISN'T..Computers aren't that good enough..they are better than 20 years ago without a doubt. CFS,Euro weeklies..yes you can look at them to get a glimse of an idea..but looking at a 10 day GFS or Euro and saying it's going to turn out that way exactly is foolish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Everybody was and everybody was wrong...why does everybody here think LR forecasting past a week is an exact science?..IT ISN'T..Computers aren't that good enough..they are better than 20 years ago without a doubt. CFS,Euro weeklies..yes you can look at them to get a glimse of an idea..but looking at a 10 day GFS or Euro and saying it's going to turn out that way exactly is foolish really ? Some of the brainiacs around here think they have the long range all figured out already........One thing I don't like about who I was talking about is the bragging when he might be correct and then being critical of fellow METS in the business in advance....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Tropic Lift will be the perfect Cosell co.jpg Game on http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html Deal. Highlights of the month. No torch Dec 1 thru 15 .... Pattern change after the 20th Think some snow xmas week. Where I stood stand and could get dusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 He was predicting a warm November a few days prior to November 1st - case closed............ So was everyone. The typhoon recurving changed the pattern. Why would you a bash a met? Do you really want a strictly weenie only board (minus a few really good non mets)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 So was everyone. The typhoon recurving changed the pattern. Why would you a bash a met? Do you really want a strictly weenie only board (minus a few really good non mets)? we have plenty of good METS on this board along with Pro Forecasters - a Vendor MET with an attitude is another story..........technically those should only post in the vendor thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Deal. Highlights of the month. No torch Dec 1 thru 15 .... Pattern change after the 20th Think some snow xmas week. Where I stood stand and could get dusted. Lady in Red...is Dancing with Me http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Lady in Red...is Dancing with Me http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif cpc.gif text-quotes-typography-text.jpg Hey. I just read that book back on Dec 1st. Psssst want me to tell you how it ends. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Hey. I just read that book back on Dec 1st. Psssst want me to tell you how it ends. Lol. It ends with must of us having negative departures minus JFK which is +.5 I think. (Only looked at the major airports not places like Islip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Hey. I just read that book back on Dec 1st. Psssst want me to tell you how it ends. Lol. With the invisible snowman in your backyard today? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121306/gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_40.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 So was everyone. The typhoon recurving changed the pattern. Why would you a bash a met? Do you really want a strictly weenie only board (minus a few really good non mets)? That extreme 924 MB ET and record ridge pump near Alaska was a very rare event for November. We haven't had that strong a ridge in that location before in an El Nino year as the two runner ups weren't El Nino years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 That map looks wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 p.jpg With the invisible snowman in your backyard today green.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121306/gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_40.png Notice that NW wind. Pos PNA with no SE ridge it's how we didn't roast like Ahhem some thought. Sorry had to clear throat . Now Dec 20 onward . All that pretty red u see at 500 is just HP in Canada and it looks warm but check out the temps in yellow knife over the next 10 days and even though it modifies . You can see the 850's at 240 . It's below normal as it slips through the lakes. Snow hole Yeh. Not the white pattern one would want. But temps those were able to beat with my eyes closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 That map looks wrong especially if you are wearing your snow goggles while looking at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 It ends with must of us having negative departures minus JFK which is +.5 I think. (Only looked at the major airports but places like Islip) Yeh I always argued N for the 1st to the 15th . I know everyone wants snow but I was just betting on the temps . We got lucky there was no SE ridge so our flow was never SW or it could have been toasty . Now after the 20th I like all those SW s cutting under all that pressure in Hudson bay. Does it have to snow ? No but those are the patterns where you could snow . Although not the greatest set up so I can't totally argue against bluewave I think we have a punchers chance. Tommy see how I worked that in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Yeh I always argued N for the 1st to the 15th . I know everyone wants snow but I was just betting on the temps . We got lucky there was no SE ridge so our flow was never SW or it could have been toasty . Now after the 20th I like all those SW s cutting under all that pressure in Hudson bay. Does it have to snow ? No but those are the patterns where you could snow . Although not the greatest set up so I can't totally argue against bluewave I think we have a punchers chance. Tommy see how I worked that in there. I agree with you that we could see some snow between the 20-31st of December. But the AO and NAO aren't playing along this month for a major all snow event for NYC and coast. We only average 4.8" for NYC in December. So a few well placed nickel and dime events could get us close. Maybe the shift to a more -EPO later in the month could help us see a small or even moderate event if all the ducks line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 especially if you are wearing your snow goggles while looking at it That map is worth less than the paper its printed on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 That map is worth less than the paper its printed on and that was not a weekend computer generated map - lets see what the computer generated maps for the 6 - 10 and 8 -14 look like later - also will be interesting to see what WPC says about the long range starting tomorrow - anybody hear from Paul Kocin lately ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I agree with you that we could see some snow between the 20-31st of December. But the AO and NAO aren't playing along this month for a major all snow event for NYC and coast. We only average 4.8" for NYC in December. So a few well placed nickel and dime events could get us close. Maybe the shift to a more -EPO later in the month could help us see a small or even moderate event if all the ducks line up. I think your plus 6 analysis is good . I am willing to bet we are BN from the 20th to 31st. And then hope is one of these SW s break a little something off for us. Those higher heights over HB do accomplish one thing it will keep the flow to our south. So cutting may be hard. One battle at a time I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Although not the greatest set up so I can't totally argue against bluewave I think we have a punchers chance. Tommy see how I worked that in there. "Kill the body and the head will die. - Smokin' Joe Frazier" WPC snippet http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd&version=1&fmt=reg ..NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST LATE SUNDAY... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN ALL TRENDED SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED AND/OR AMPLIFIED...DEPICTING SOME SEPARATION OF A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT TO THIS TROUGH. THESE TRENDS ARE TYPICAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER IN TIME...AND THE GEFS MEAN ALSO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...GIVING THE TREND PLENTY OF WEIGHT. THIS MAKES THE 00Z NAM/GFS APPEAR TO BE MUCH TOO FAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS HARD TO CALL THEM OUTLIERS GIVEN THE STRONG AND STRAIGHT JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WHICH IS A PATTERN THAT COULD SUPPORT QUICKER MOVEMENT OF LEAD SHORTWAVES. Flat is where its at! http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_96hr500bw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I think your plus 6 analysis is good . I am willing to bet we are BN from the 20th to 31st. And then hope is one of these SW s break a little something off for us. Those higher heights over HB do accomplish one thing it will keep the flow to our south. So cutting may be hard. One battle at a time I guess. The tendency for the trough to keep reappearing over the Northeast since October has really kept the warmer temperature potential in check as NYC is -1 so far in December. We could just use some depth to the cold with that main -10C 850 line pushing closer to the Northeast instead of hanging back further north in Canada. Maybe the EPO can help us in that department later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 ECMWF has a pretty decent snowstorm for the MA/NE with the 21st system that's been showing up recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 ECM has a good looking storm on the 21st too bad it's only got tepid pacific polar air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 ECMWF has a pretty decent snowstorm for the MA/NE with the 21st system that's been showing up recently. not with the low in that position and stale cold air and the HP in the wrong position thats rain the whole key to this event is keeping the HP to the north from escaping - we know we are going to have LP moving this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 not with the low in that position and stale cold air and the HP in the wrong position thats rain the whole key to this event is keeping the HP to the north from escaping - we know we are going to have LP moving this way High pressure at that time is situated North of the great lakes.. Granted paltry air mass in place (not arctic) but nothing IMHO wrong with the position of the high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I would not sweat a 9 day op run when the key to any damming is going to be the speed of either SW You have to admit that s a hell of a lot better than seeing 50 with the center at KALB. But that's a great look just away from the coast regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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