PB GFI Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Pot kettle, you really aren't one to critique. Even the Requiem needed some fine tuning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The euro is no longer a good model beyond Day 7, inside of that it's been good this year so far, maybe the best it's been in awhile but beyond that the op runs flop like a fish in water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 GFS 0z Day 10 Guidance White Xmas Mode - Coal in the Metro Weather Stocking -ATM- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121300/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 0z GFS and 0z Para GFS are way different for the 20-21 storm along with the GGEM and Euro. GGEM and Euro mean are quite similiar. GFS Para has a weak wave staying way south and east. Model madness FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Ignore 0z GFS for dec 21 event. The model's sh!tty resolution "looses" the big low over se canada so the HIGH slides east and the low goes into ohio. Other models with better resolution dont do this... Including the 13km GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Ignore 0z GFS for dec 21 event. The model's sh!tty resolution "looses" the big low over se canada so the HIGH slides east and the low goes into ohio. Other models with better resolution dont do this... Including the 13km GFS Whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Ignore 0z GFS for dec 21 event. The model's sh!tty resolution "looses" the big low over se canada so the HIGH slides east and the low goes into ohio. Other models with better resolution dont do this... Including the 13km GFS Euro tonight looks a little to south and east tonight ..though do not have the precipitation images to confirm with certainty.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Really?? Thanks Dave for taking the time to post. Please don't let the trolls get to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Euro tonight looks a little to south and east tonight ..though do not have the precipitation images to confirm with certainty.. Correct. Light precip .05-.10" to roughly EPA. Nice little set up to bring in some fresh cold air for what's behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 WhateverSome of you have to understand why private forecasters use the euro 1st .When you are paid based on performance and are not a salaried based employee its only reasonable that you rely on the number 1 skill score model in the industry . The GFS is really not the model of choice when your bills and reputation depend on being successful as a results oriented entrepreneur. When your point and click bust by 15 degrees from 5 days out or a foot of party cloudy falls after a week of the model taking your snowstorm south and east of NYC you just move on but watch a NG trader miss the draw because you had a blow out like that and It would be line out. The GFS is the number 3 skill score model of all the globals and those who are fans of it usually just sit around and wait for it to play catch up as its missed many big event on the EC over the past decade. I know there are fans of it and it's not a put down to NCEP which has a deep product base. But it does lag behind the Euro and UKMET in verified scoring So whatever doesn't necessarily fit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 And the gfs is back to a miller B solution for 20/21 but then does a lot of weird things post truncation although it still shows the 24th storm and more beyond that even if too warm but most likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 And the gfs is back to a miller B solution for 20/21 but then does a lot of weird things post truncation although it still shows the 24th storm and more beyond that even if too warm but most likely wrong. Yea keep on using the GFS. See how far that gets you over the ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Hot Fudge is for Ice Cream and it looks like the Cherry sales team in here, might be spreading some false hope for metro snow atm -imho of course - Fudge this! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121300/ecmwf-ens_z500a_sd_namer.html a man's got to know his limitations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Jeez what is wrong with you people? We have an amazing met who comes in here and posts his thoughts and gets attacked ? You people are too much. Thanks dt ignore the haters and please continue to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 One bad euro run come on man!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 One bad euro run come on man!! bad GFS and GFSP bad GEM Bad post take a look for yourself 56 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Um 12 z euro 18 z gfs both looked good. But your the expert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 One bad euro run come on man!! The OP Euro has been having a different solution every run. So the Euro hasn't locked into a solution yet as you see the wide spread between the OP and Ensemble. When the OP and ensemble come into better agreement we'll have a clear picture of the second storm. But the first low can suppress the second too much if it trends less progressive. Just remember that one-two storms need to be perfect for the second to work out with no solid blocking. Zero margin for error without a Davis Strait/Greenland block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Um 12 z euro 18 z gfs both looked good. But your the expert 56 I don't make the model runs in my basement balance and moderation is what we strive for this is the big leagues dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 The OP Euro has been having a different solution every run. So the Euro hasn't locked into a solution yet as you see the wide spread between the OP and Ensemble. When the OP and ensemble come into better agreement we'll have a clear picture of the second storm. But the first low can suppress the second too much if it trends less progressive. Just remember that one-two storms need to be perfect for the second to work out with no solid blocking. Zero margin for error without a Davis Strait/Greenland block. Strongly agree here chris, commom rule of thumb here is when the ECMWF OP & ENSEMBLES are almost the same you can pretty much take it to the bank. Currently it has having problems with the christmas eve threat and the storms preceeding it. However, this is the ECMWF and i dont think it will be long for it to lock onto to what would be the eventual solution. ECMWF makes its reputation off southern stream systems so i dont expect its subpar performance to continue much longer honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Strongly agree here chris, commom rule of thumb here is when the ECMWF OP & ENSEMBLES are almost the same you can pretty much take it to the bank. Currently it has having problems with the christmas eve threat and the storms preceeding it. However, this is the ECMWF and i dont think it will be long for it to lock onto to what would be the eventual solution. ECMWF makes its reputation off southern stream systems so i dont expect its subpar performance to continue much longer honestly The UKMET is also slower and more amped with the first low. So it may be that the models are beginning to see that will be a big player as to the teleconnections for the second storm. It always makes me a bit nervous to rely on the first low to be the perfect 50/50 for the second low when there is no solid Davis Strait or Greenland blocking pattern before or during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 The UKMET is also slower and more amped with the first low. So it may be that the models are beginning to see that will be a big player as to the teleconnections for the second storm. It always makes me a bit nervous to rely on the first low to be the perfect 50/50 for the second low when there is no solid Davis Strait or Greenland blocking pattern before or during the event. Hence why before we get established a west based -NAO we will have to "thread the needle". We have seen even the past several years what a well placed/time 50/50 LP has done in a crappy pattern for us snow wise on the EC. still going for a 4"+ event for NYC before this month is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 bad GFS and GFSP bad GEM Bad post take a look for yourself 56 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ GFS CANADIAN LOL enough said . Lets let those POS RIP . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 If any bothered to read DT s piece he was as cautious as he said he was not completely sold on the 21st , because he wasn't sure if the 17th system could create the block or if the 21st ejects fast enough to catch it on its way E then NE . You will see different solutions off the OP because as many of should know by now the Euro is traditionally slow ejecting SWs out of the SW and the speed of it will determine if it can actually catch the block on the backside . That solution will take a few days but the GFS is not the model that will find that because it`s just flat out awful . I did not make those skill scores up in my basement either . If it doesn`t DT thought the 21st could create the block for the 25 th . There are 3 SW swinging through under a pos PNA this is not 1 and done so threading the needle will come down to where the trough axis sets up , the speed of the SW and can we catch a transient block . Patience is the key . We said the pattern would look better starting Dec 20 . I think the Euro ensembles are showing you that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Mets like DT dont use just the models. Lets see if his skill is what he says it is. I have faith. Otherwise it doesn't take much to draw some black lines and sound educated. But again, I dont think thats the case, I think he is going to school everyone. As they say, that's why they play the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 the ao/nao forecasts have been useless...every day it changes...The nao is very positive and it is forecast to fall towards neutral or negative territory...The ao is positive today and is forecast to be above to neutral now...Tomorrow it will probably change...If I was a real met and made a living from it I would be pulling my hair out...What's ever left of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Patience is the key . We said the pattern would look better starting Dec 20 . I think the Euro ensembles are showing you that . PB the key may not fit the pattern lock LOL 200mb GEFS guidance http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gefs-spag&area=npac&cycle=20141213%2006%20UTC¶m=200_1176_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area Flatline EKG FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 the ao/nao forecasts have been useless...every day it changes...The nao is very positive and it is forecast to fall towards neutral or negative territory...The ao is positive today and is forecast to be above to neutral now...Tomorrow it will probably change...If I was a real met and made a living from it I would be pulling my hair out...What's ever left of it... None have the runs have had anything more than a transient or weak -AO/-NAO and there is the problem. El Nino Decembers typically don't have much blocking. 2002 and 2009 were the outlier El Nino years that really spoiled a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 PB the key may not fit the pattern lock LOL 200mb GEFS guidance pc.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gefs-spag&area=npac&cycle=20141213%2006%20UTC¶m=200_1176_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area Flatline EKG FTW Different tools for different folks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Different tools for different folks . PB Look up the verification scores for the euro on the Pac side and get back to me thanks dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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