MJO812 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Getting the NAO negative is a great step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 We have already been discussing this storm and the one that should follow it in the other thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Getting the NAO negative is a great step in the right direction. Its not just the NAO that well have if this verifies. AS many have mentioned, there are other ingredients that can contribute towards snow that are in place, even if the NAO wasn't negative. IF the NAO goes negative, conditions will be ripe for a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Yeah again it's all about getting enough polar air in place to thread the needle. The tracks and threats are out there and in a good spot. Things actually fit in quite nicely from what DT talked about. Hopefully we score with one of them at least and yes starting post 12/17 could be our first threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 Yeah again it's all about getting enough polar air in place to thread the needle. The tracks and threats are out there and in a good spot. Things actually fit in quite nicely from what DT talked about. Hopefully we score with one of them at least and yes starting post 12/17 could be our first threat. Thanks for starting to be more reasonable and not harping on every opportunity to punt december like you have been lately. The threats are there and even with a less than ideal setup we could still nail atleast a moderate event for NYC-east in december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 ahhhhhh. I think these indices would support an event around the 21st...nao drop and pna mini spike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I don`t understand why you guys keep using the GFS s AO-NAO-PNA . You have to look to the Euro . Big PNA difference Not sure why anyone would look at the number 3 skill score model when one could look at the number 1 skill score model . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I don`t understand why you guys keep using the GFS s AO-NAO-PNA . You have to look to the Euro . Big PNA difference . Not sure why anyone would look at the number 3 skill score model when one could look at the number 1 model . Do you have a link? Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Do you have a link? Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 That's an interesting setup for the pattern moving into next week. Normally with that phase occuring over the Southern Plains we would be dealing with a big cutter and very warm temps but because the ULL is still nearbye it completely changes our sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 PNA Thing of beauty seeing those higher heights towards greenland/N. CANADA. Going into new years we should start seeing the stars align for bigger storms on the EC. Current pattern we have to thread the needle, which around the 21st i think that has a good shot. Spike in PNA and drop to near nuetral NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The 12z GFS has a nice PNA spike early next week with the closed system over the Central Plains and a piece of the polar jet trying to come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 That's an interesting setup for the pattern moving into next week. Normally with that phase occuring over the Southern Plains we would be dealing with a big cutter and very warm temps but because the ULL is still nearbye it completely changes our sensible weather. Huge pos PNA , southern jet cutting underneath ( So it`s stormy ) " type" not sure . The trough is too slow , its an error on the euro . Expect that trough to be deeper on the EC . Trough into the GOA and Europe it teleconnects nicely . Nothing should cut with those heights near Hudson Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 PNA That's one heck of a pattern if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Okay, I have to take a hot bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badfishranch Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The PINEAPPLE VORTEX!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 EURO is making some big changes at 12z for the LR....liking what I'm seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The Euro looks similar to the PGFS with a miller B developing off the NJ coast early Wednesday morning, nice burst of wintry precipitation away from the coast. And then of course you've got the massive cut off day 10 that will likely verify as a glorrified cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Day 10 Euro looks interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The Euro looks similar to the PGFS with a miller B developing off the NJ coast early Wednesday morning, nice burst of wintry precipitation away from the coast. ( And then of course you've got the massive cut off day 10 that will likely verify as a glorrified cold front. ) 1. Glorified . 2. Not quite . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Day 10 Euro looks interesting! always 10 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 1. Glorified . 2. Not quite . Spelling isn't one of my stronger attributes. IE doesn't have the auto correct that chrome has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Well...DT just made a thread for the day ten storm, I've seen it all http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45111-12z-dec-11-ecmwf-goes-woof-for-dec-21/#entry3184904 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 always 10 days away! I don't think its been 10 days out yet. It was 2 weeks, then 12 now 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 One thing going for this is the 50/50 low up in Southeast Canada that helps to create a block over Greenland and locks in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Well...DT just made a thread for the day ten storm, I've seen it all http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45111-12z-dec-11-ecmwf-goes-woof-for-dec-21/#entry3184904 His last paragraph is the best part of the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 His last paragraph is the best part of the post. But he forgot...'unless you live in the NYC Metro' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Nice to see the model displaying it as a possible solution, but it's still just one run for an event that is 10 days out. Still, hopefully the shades of optimism we've seen over the past few days will quell the weenie suicide cries. Like several others on here, I remain confident that winter is far from over and still stands a decent chance of being a memorable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 1. Glorified . 2. Not quite . Pot kettle, you really aren't one to critique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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