The Plowsman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 CNJ weather phone app now calling for 90% n 70% snow weds n Thurs now!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Well another two days have passed since I indicated the GFS had no sub 0C 850mb over NYC from 12/14-21. Well there is still virtually no sub 0C 850mbs., but period now ends 12/23. When does the pattern change turn up? Seems warmup keeps being pushed ahead in time, days (11-15) now show up as above normal and (1-10) as normal when it was to be above normal. It is just that the below normal temps. never get here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Well another two days have passed since I indicated the GFS had no sub 0C 850mb over NYC from 12/14-21. Well there is still virtually no sub 0C 850mbs., but period now ends 12/23. When does the pattern change turn up? Seems warmup keeps being pushed ahead in time, days (11-15) now show up as above normal and (1-10) as normal when it was to be above normal. It is just that the below normal temps. never get here!! I asked a similar quesiton on another board. THe answer I got was this (summarized in my words): -GFS operational (the model you are looking at) is not accurate. Case in point, it didn't even have this weeks storm until just a couple of days ago. -Ensembles can give you a better idea as to whats going on in the long range (as opposed to the operational). -GEFS, GGEM and NAEFS (ensembles) are all showing a drastic pattern change (cold), -EPO, -AO, -NAO which is what we need for cold and snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I asked a similar quesiton on another board. THe answer I got was this (summarized in my words): -GFS operational (the model you are looking at) is not accurate. Case in point, it didn't even have this weeks storm until just a couple of days ago. -Ensembles can give you a better idea as to whats going on in the long range (as opposed to the operational). -GEFS, GGEM and NAEFS (ensembles) are all showing a drastic pattern change (cold), -EPO, -AO, -NAO which is what we need for cold and snow chances. I am using the ensembles. GEFS, NAEFS which show no drastic change over the next 15 days and the NAEFS did not show the 50mm of rain we are to get Tues_Wed just a few days ago either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I am using the ensembles. GEFS, NAEFS which show no drastic change over the next 15 days and the NAEFS did not show the 50mm of rain we are to get Tues_Wed just a few days ago either. Interesting. Either I was unintentially uninformed or you need to clear your cookies. Ha. In all seriousness that is a downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There is no warm up coming. This has beaten to death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There is no warm up coming. This has beaten to death Never said there was a warmup coming. It is just that it seems so far it is the warmup that is being delayed and not a 'colddown' that is being presaged by the ensembles. Truth be known, the temperature right now is lower than any that one would predict based on these ensembles for the next 15 days. A little above normal two weeks from now is about just what we have now. I admit teleconnections, weak west based El Nino and SSW are all favorable---just do not understand why ensembles have not reacted. I want to see 500THK drop some 200-300m at the end of any run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Never said there was a warmup coming. It is just that it seems so far it is the warmup that is being delayed and not a 'colddown' that is being presaged by the ensembles. Truth be known, the temperature right now is lower than any that one would predict based on these ensembles for the next 15 days. A little above normal two weeks from now is about just what we have now. I admit teleconnections, weak west based El Nino and SSW are all favorable---just do not understand why ensembles have not reacted. I want to see 500THK drop some 200-300m at the end of any run. The Euro has . You are not looking at right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 The Euro has . You are not looking at right . Agreed, starting end of last week the EURO has really been honing in on the dec. 20th time period and on for the step down into the abyss for winter. christmas week is gonna be as exciting as 2010 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Agreed, starting end of last week the EURO has really been honing in on the dec. 20th time period and on for the step down into the abyss for winter. christmas week is gonna be as exciting as 2010 IMO Why must you always go to the extreme . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Why must you always go to the extreme . I said 2010 not boxing day since that was a highly anomolous setup during a big blocking regime paul. I meant storminess in that we will have threats monitored throughout that time period and on with cold air not far away should a storm venture up the coast. I didnt say break out the KU cookbook yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I said 2010 not boxing day since that was a highly anomolous setup during a big blocking regime paul. I meant storminess in that we will have threats monitored throughout that time period and on with cold air not far away should a storm venture up the coast. I didnt say break out the KU cookbook yet You said Christmas week 2010 ..... Oh you meant another random anomalous event in 2010 . Got ya . Just saying you ruin the context of the forecast when you insert events like that . Nothing like that is modeled . We step down and it`s to a colder regime but not the abyss ( yet ) . Euro monthlies says it happens Jan - March . I can`t post them but the 500 mb mean is pretty good . The pattern after the 18th looks like it would be one that could and should favor cold and some snow . How much I have no %$^&* idea . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 You said Christmas week 2010 ..... Oh you meant another random anomalous event in 2010 . Got ya . Just saying you ruin the context of the forecast when you insert events like that . Nothing like that is modeled . We step down and it`s to a colder regime but not the abyss ( yet ) . Euro monthlies say it happens Jan - March . I can`t post them but the 500 mb mean is pretty good . The pattern after the 18th looks like it would be one that could and should favor cold and some snow . How much I have no %$^&* idea . Didnt mean to mention 2010 since it did include the Boxing Day Blizzard and obviously we are worlds apart pattern wise comparing that week to this one. Just noting the potential, i wont mention years or weeks for that matter when stating potential then paul. I just think they're will be snow on the ground come christmas day thats what i really wanted to say not take it to the extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Didnt mean to mention 2010 since it did include the Boxing Day Blizzard and obviously we are worlds apart pattern wise comparing that week to this one. Just noting the potential, i wont mention years or weeks for that matter when stating potential then paul. I just think they're will be snow on the ground come christmas day thats what i really wanted to say not take it to the extreme All good mate . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 All good mate . Ill admit in an effort to improve myself in the hobbies i love i do get ahead of myself. Thanks for bringing me back down to earth i will be more, reasonable in the future. Gotta admit though 10 days ago the 20th and on didnt even look that great and now BOOM, its a nice little turn around to almost fit the El Nino mold perfectly for winter if you will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 We definitely need to get a few inches this month because climo would dictate a not so good winter if that doesn't happen. Interestingly enough we might bootleg cold so that the month is near normal to only slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 We're less than 24 hours away from a major noreaster and people are talking about Boxing Day. It must be a hard life when the only weather that excites you is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Ill admit in an effort to improve myself in the hobbies i love i do get ahead of myself. Thanks for bringing me back down to earth i will be more, reasonable in the future. Gotta admit though 10 days ago the 20th and on didnt even look that great and now BOOM, its a nice little turn around to almost fit the El Nino mold perfectly for winter if you will Worry about tomorrow's storm first and then we can focus on the long range. There are promising signs...one day at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Anyone notice the ocean effect streamers just offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salseneca Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hard to get excited about this 12z GFS Ensemble run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I think a reasonable way of determining whether we are waiting for Godot to arrive with a satchel full of frigid air is to find out when the latest MAX. of 32 or lower (since the cold air invasion we are waiting for is sure to have many of these days) has occured in NYC. Then subtract 15 days from that date and look for a big drop in geopotential heights and 850mb by the end of the run of the ensembles issued that day. Currently lowest MAX is 36 in Nov. GEFS_NAEFS when published say on 12/23 should show just this near end of that run, since CFS weeklies offer little hope till start of New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Through 10 days most places are normal to a 0.5 below normal. Other than the torch on the 1st its been a very average month thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 There's actually some decent support from the Euro ensembles of a storm between the 20th and 22nd. Corresponds well to the 12z GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 There's actually some decent support from the Euro ensembles of a storm between the 20th and 22nd. Corresponds well to the 12z GFS op. The gfs has had something around the 24th the past couple runs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Through 10 days most places are normal to a 0.5 below normal. Other than the torch on the 1st its been a very average month thus far. Been alot of cloudy damp days versus get real cold air though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Watch the period around the 16th. That's quite a potent shortwave coming out of the Plains and you have a high moving towards Eastern Canada. Could be another thread the needle event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 Watch the period around the 16th. That's quite a potent shortwave coming out of the Plains and you have a high moving towards Eastern Canada. Could be another thread the needle event. The two threats from the 17th on show some interesting features in what is a sub par air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Pineapple express in the pacific! Parade of storms ready to come ashore. Just need some cold air if even transient to get into the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Pineapple express in the pacific! Parade of storms ready to come ashore. Just need some cold air if even transient to get into the action.Good for the drought out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 ahhhhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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