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December Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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Well another two days have passed since I indicated the GFS had no sub 0C 850mb over NYC from 12/14-21.   Well there is still virtually no sub 0C 850mbs., but period now ends 12/23.   When does the pattern change turn up?  Seems warmup keeps being pushed ahead in time, days (11-15) now show up as above normal and (1-10) as normal when it was to be above normal.   It is just that the below normal temps. never get here!!

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Well another two days have passed since I indicated the GFS had no sub 0C 850mb over NYC from 12/14-21.   Well there is still virtually no sub 0C 850mbs., but period now ends 12/23.   When does the pattern change turn up?  Seems warmup keeps being pushed ahead in time, days (11-15) now show up as above normal and (1-10) as normal when it was to be above normal.   It is just that the below normal temps. never get here!!

I asked a similar quesiton on another board.  THe answer I got was this (summarized in my words):

 

-GFS operational (the model you are looking at) is not accurate.  Case in point, it didn't even have this weeks storm until just a couple of days ago.

 

-Ensembles can give you a better idea as to whats going on in the long range (as opposed to the operational).

 

-GEFS, GGEM and NAEFS (ensembles) are all showing a drastic pattern change (cold), -EPO, -AO, -NAO which is what we need for cold and snow chances.

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I asked a similar quesiton on another board.  THe answer I got was this (summarized in my words):

 

-GFS operational (the model you are looking at) is not accurate.  Case in point, it didn't even have this weeks storm until just a couple of days ago.

 

-Ensembles can give you a better idea as to whats going on in the long range (as opposed to the operational).

 

-GEFS, GGEM and NAEFS (ensembles) are all showing a drastic pattern change (cold), -EPO, -AO, -NAO which is what we need for cold and snow chances.

I am using the ensembles.     GEFS, NAEFS which show no drastic change over the next 15 days and the NAEFS did not show the 50mm of rain we are to get Tues_Wed just a few days ago either.

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I am using the ensembles.     GEFS, NAEFS which show no drastic change over the next 15 days and the NAEFS did not show the 50mm of rain we are to get Tues_Wed just a few days ago either.

Interesting.  Either I was unintentially uninformed or you need to clear your cookies.  Ha.  

 

In all seriousness that is a downer.

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There is no warm up coming. This has beaten to death

Never said there was a warmup coming.    It is just that it seems so far it is the warmup that is being delayed and not a  'colddown' that is being presaged by the ensembles.    Truth be known,  the temperature right now is lower than any that one would predict based on these ensembles for the next 15 days.    A little above normal two weeks from now is about just what we have now.   I admit teleconnections, weak west based El Nino and SSW are all favorable---just do not understand why ensembles have not reacted.    I want to see 500THK drop some 200-300m at the end of any run.

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Never said there was a warmup coming.    It is just that it seems so far it is the warmup that is being delayed and not a  'colddown' that is being presaged by the ensembles.    Truth be known,  the temperature right now is lower than any that one would predict based on these ensembles for the next 15 days.    A little above normal two weeks from now is about just what we have now.   I admit teleconnections, weak west based El Nino and SSW are all favorable---just do not understand why ensembles have not reacted.    I want to see 500THK drop some 200-300m at the end of any run.

The Euro has . You are not looking at right .

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Agreed, starting end of last week the EURO has really been honing in on the dec. 20th time period and on for the step down into the abyss for winter. christmas week is gonna be as exciting as 2010 IMO

Why must you always go to the extreme . 

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Why must you always go to the extreme .

I said 2010 not boxing day since that was a highly anomolous setup during a big blocking regime paul. I meant storminess in that we will have threats monitored throughout that time period and on with cold air not far away should a storm venture up the coast. I didnt say break out the KU cookbook yet :lol:

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I said 2010 not boxing day since that was a highly anomolous setup during a big blocking regime paul. I meant storminess in that we will have threats monitored throughout that time period and on with cold air not far away should a storm venture up the coast. I didnt say break out the KU cookbook yet :lol:

You said Christmas week 2010 .....  Oh you meant another random anomalous event in 2010 . Got ya .

 

Just saying you ruin the context of the forecast when you insert events like that . Nothing like that is modeled .

We step down and it`s to a colder regime but not the abyss  ( yet ) .  Euro monthlies says it happens Jan - March . I can`t post them but the 500 mb mean is pretty good . 

The pattern after the 18th  looks like it would be one that could and should favor cold and some snow . How much I have no %$^&* idea .

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You said Christmas week 2010 ..... Oh you meant another random anomalous event in 2010 . Got ya .

Just saying you ruin the context of the forecast when you insert events like that . Nothing like that is modeled .

We step down and it`s to a colder regime but not the abyss ( yet ) . Euro monthlies say it happens Jan - March . I can`t post them but the 500 mb mean is pretty good .

The pattern after the 18th looks like it would be one that could and should favor cold and some snow . How much I have no %$^&* idea .

Didnt mean to mention 2010 since it did include the Boxing Day Blizzard and obviously we are worlds apart pattern wise comparing that week to this one. Just noting the potential, i wont mention years or weeks for that matter when stating potential then paul. I just think they're will be snow on the ground come christmas day thats what i really wanted to say not take it to the extreme
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Didnt mean to mention 2010 since it did include the Boxing Day Blizzard and obviously we are worlds apart pattern wise comparing that week to this one. Just noting the potential, i wont mention years or weeks for that matter when stating potential then paul. I just think they're will be snow on the ground come christmas day thats what i really wanted to say not take it to the extreme

All good mate .

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All good mate .

Ill admit in an effort to improve myself in the hobbies i love i do get ahead of myself. Thanks for bringing me back down to earth i will be more, reasonable in the future. Gotta admit though 10 days ago the 20th and on didnt even look that great and now BOOM, its a nice little turn around to almost fit the El Nino mold perfectly for winter if you will

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Ill admit in an effort to improve myself in the hobbies i love i do get ahead of myself. Thanks for bringing me back down to earth i will be more, reasonable in the future. Gotta admit though 10 days ago the 20th and on didnt even look that great and now BOOM, its a nice little turn around to almost fit the El Nino mold perfectly for winter if you will

Worry about tomorrow's storm first and then we can focus on the long range. There are promising signs...one day at a time.

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I think a reasonable way of determining whether we are waiting for Godot to arrive with a satchel full of frigid air is to find out when the latest MAX. of 32 or lower (since the cold air invasion we are waiting for is sure to have many of these days) has occured in NYC.    Then subtract 15 days from that date and look for a big drop in geopotential heights and 850mb by the end of the run of the ensembles issued that day.  Currently lowest MAX is 36 in Nov. 

 

GEFS_NAEFS when published say on 12/23 should show just this near end of that run, since CFS weeklies offer little hope till start of New Year.

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