SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The gfs is now worlds apart from the Euro. One of these models is going to go down in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The gfs is now worlds apart from the Euro. One of these models is going to go down in flames.Wana bet which one. ? I will give u a hint. It's the one that always does on the EC .I read above the euro stinks. Stuff like this is crap .We know snow is not bombing away on the coast at 40 N. It's not suppose to without blocking and a marginal air mass . So temper your expectations on the coast. This looks to be a great interior snowstorm. This look could be a powerhouse in terms of accumulations In central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 00Z KMA Hour 120 [Progressive Model] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Wana bet which one. ? I will give u a hint. It's the one that always does on the EC . I read above the euro stinks. Stuff like this is crap .We know snow is not bombing away on the coast at 40 N. It's not suppose to without blocking and a marginal air mass . So temper your expectations on the coast. This looks to be a great interior snowstorm. This look could be a powerhouse in terms of accumulations In central New England. Agree 100% paul. The EURO is damn good in storms like these. Furthermore, your assessment of the crappy stale air mass for the coastal plain is true as well and couple that with the poor location of the antecendent HP system EAST of maine it is a cold rain for coastal areas. Only way i see snow at the coast and snowgoose agreed with me on this is IF the 500mb LP closes off east of LI (a la 12/25/02) and we get legit backend snows and not brief light flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Agree 100% paul. The EURO is damn good in storms like these. Furthermore, your assessment of the crappy stale air mass for the coastal plain is true as well and couple that with the poor location of the antecendent HP system EAST of maine it is a cold rain for coastal areas. Only way i see snow at the coast and snowgoose agreed with me on this is IF the 500mb LP closes off east of LI (a la 12/25/02) and we get legit backend snows and not brief light flurries WPC is showing the backend precip - if there is any frozen involved its a rain to snow event for the metro agreed we need that LP to close off and create its own dynamic cold air - BUT that is a less then a 50/50 chance right now IMO- thank you NAO a negative NAO might have prevented the strong cold HP from flying east out of Quebec - it also lingers precip here through mid week as shown in the 6 -7 day map more then likely I will continue to cross out contestants names through next week in the CONTEST day 4-5 precip http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1417780564 day 6 - 7 precip http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1417780684 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 WPC is showing the backend precip - if anything this is a rain to snow event for the metro - it also lingers precip here through mid week as shown in the 6 -7 day map - 12/25/02 is a good analog - I have to find the analogs website to see if it is on it day 4-5 precip http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1417780564 day 6 - 7 precip http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1417780684 12/25/02 was probably as perfect of a setup from NYC-east from true and notable backend snows. the key with that setup was a vertically stacked system pulling away EAST of LI. that is really our only hope with this storm. WELL inland into CNY- NNE this can be a yard stick storm in some of the higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12/25/02 was probably as perfect of a setup from NYC-east from true and notable backend snows. the key with that setup was a vertically stacked system pulling away EAST of LI. that is really our only hope with this storm. WELL inland into CNY- NNE this can be a yard stick storm in some of the higher elevations It just goes to show how hard it is to get decent backlash snows here . More can usually go wrong than we need to go right when the teleconnections are very poor. The 0z Euro closes off too far west so the front end WWA overcomes any chance of even a light backend accum at coast. The interesting thing about Christmas 02 is that we had solid blocking much of the month prior to the storm which helped us out. The 50/50 let the storm close off in the perfect location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The 06z GFS much like the 18z run yesterday nearly had something again but still way off the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 It just goes to show how hard it is to get decent backlash snows here . More can usually go wrong than we need to go right when the teleconnections are very poor. The 0z Euro closes off too far west so the front end WWA overcomes any chance of even a light backend accum at coast. The interesting thing about Christmas 02 is that we had solid blocking much of the month prior to the storm which helped us out. The 50/50 let the storm close off in the perfect location. ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png If i were to give some kind of preliminary forecast for NYC/LI it would be rain with a little snow with little or no accumulations at this time. This is far from an ideal setup no matter how its split for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salseneca Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 JB out there on twitter starting to hype up the Jan flip: Speaking of cold, CFSV2 is trending way down now for Jan. Latest run at 500 mb, and temps! Polar Vortex hype coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salseneca Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 since you are a newbie we have a vendor thread for the JB's of the world oops sorry bout that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 If i were to give some kind of preliminary forecast for NYC/LI it would be rain with a little snow with little or no accumulations at this time. This is far from an ideal setup no matter how its split for this area. need a blocking mechanism to slow down or hold that strong enough 1040 + Quebec HP in place- doesn't show right now on any models - too early in the season for a less then ideal HP location to the north - later in the season you may be able to get away with it when water temps are down closer to freezing and also like last year there is a huge amount of cold enough air involved in the pattern - there is one way to get some frozen out of this in the metro - impressive dynamics from the storm in a thread the needle location - good luck with that scenario ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 need a blocking mechanism to slow down or hold that strong enough 1040 + Quebec HP in place- doesn't show right now on any models - too early in the season for a less then ideal HP location to the north - later in the season you may be able to get away with it when water temps are down closer to freezing and also like last year there is a huge amount of cold enough air involved in the pattern - there is one way to get some frozen out of this in the metro - impressive dynamics from the storm in a thread the needle location - good luck with that ! Agreed and already this season we've seen some misinterpretation on how dynamic cooling happens. You MUST have a cold source to tap into and the storm still cant be close to land since you'll have a fetch off the torched atlantic. Its been used pretty loosely around here and one must understand that dynamic cooling happens profiently in storms that are vertically stacked/closed off at most or all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I may be mistaken but every piece of guidance has this as a retrogading low ..outside the GFS.. If only there were a hurricane coming up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GEFS still shows no sub 0C 850mb temps. between 12/13-21! Normal is -2C to -3C @850mb for NYC. -6C is nice for snow I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GEFS still shows no sub 0C 850mb temps. between 12/13-21! Normal is -2C to -3C @850mb for NYC. Wow do the ensembles do ok with temperature profiles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GEFS still shows no sub 0C 850mb temps. between 12/13-21! Normal is -2C to -3C @850mb for NYC. and how many times has that model been correct in that range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Wow do the ensembles do ok with temperature profiles? Well that period looks dry with NW surface winds mostly, so 2mT's do not take off---48-53 deg. highs. Normal high is 42degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GEFS still shows no sub 0C 850mb temps. between 12/13-21! Normal is -2C to -3C @850mb for NYC. -6C is nice for snow I think. Gfs 12z OP has begun to change its torchy tune as we progress toward the 20th and beyond. The storm early next week is clearly having a propagating impact in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Long range Euro continues to advertise a big cutter, that could help break the pattern as we get closer to Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ302 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014PAZ054-055-060600-/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0022.141205T2100Z-141206T0600Z/CARBON-MONROE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG302 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM ESTSATURDAY...* HAZARD TYPES...AREAS OF SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING OF SLEET, AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OFAN INCH OF ICE.* TIMING...SOME AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUETHROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE, ALLOWING FORPLAIN RAIN.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CAN CREATESLIPPERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FORUNTREATED SURFACES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, THEN RISING TOTHE MID 30S THROUGH TONIGHT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET OR FREEZINGRAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERYROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. USEEXTRA CAUTION ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS THESESURFACES TEND TO BE COLDER.&&$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ302 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014NJZ001-060600-/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0022.141205T2100Z-141206T0600Z/SUSSEX-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON302 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY.* HAZARD TYPES...AREAS OF SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING OF SLEET, AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OFAN INCH OF ICE.* TIMING...SOME AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUETHROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE, ALLOWING FORPLAIN RAIN.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CAN CREATESLIPPERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FORUNTREATED SURFACES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TEMPERATURES...NEAR FREEZING, THEN RISING TO THE MID 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET OR FREEZINGRAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERYROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. USEEXTRA CAUTION ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS THESESURFACES TEND TO BE COLDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I know its not getting a lot of attention, but look at all the warm air in the high plains in about a weeks time. 80's possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I know its not getting a lot of attention, but look at all the warm air in the high plains in about a weeks time. 80's possible? Texas to Nebraska, not here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I know its not getting a lot of attention, but look at all the warm air in the high plains in about a weeks time. 80's possible? No, not with the December sun angle, and remember 2-3 days ago the Euro thought that was going to happen at Day 10 and now Day 7-8 are nowhere near that warm. I went through and glanced at Omaha's records for 12/12-12/20 and the highest daily record I found was 69 from 1976 on 12/16...even +10 850s under full sunshine probably only get you to about 70. Years back Atlanta only made it to 87 with an 850 temp of 20C in early February, that gets you to at least 96 most summer days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Today's (12/06) 18Z GFS is a real snoozer! Keeps 850mb's @ 0deg. and above for 216 hours [168-384] straight and shows not a bit of precip. for 273 hours [111-384] straight! Shake me---Wake me>>>When It's Over, When It's Over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Today's (12/06) 18Z GFS is a real snoozer! Keeps 850mb's @ 0deg. and above for 216 hours [168-384] straight and shows not a bit of precip. for 273 hours [111-384] straight! Shake me---Wake me>>>When It's Over, When It's Over! Don't get too worried - recent runs have had a cooldown before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Soaker today and no thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The wind is pretty nasty this morning. Woke me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 The wind is pretty nasty this morning. Woke me up. Yea wind was quite intense this morning driving to work and this morning when i woke up similar to you. Pretty odd this storm that has passed didnt garner any attention. Given that this storm and next weeks storm will still be rain and the backlash snow thread IMO being north again and not in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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