atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GEM is a tightly compact wound up system.. I definitely would not use the GEM for thermal profile however.. The important thing is to notice how the GGEM is consistent with showing a wrapped up system while the GFS still sleeps on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 00z UKMET is also showing a nicely wrapped up system at 120 hrs out. So definitely the GFS is an outlier at the present time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png GEM is a tightly compact wound up system.. I definitely would not use the GEM for thermal profile however.. The important thing is to notice how the GGEM is consistent with showing a wrapped up system while the GFS still sleeps on it! Yeah with absolutely no cold air in sight. That is going to be a problem with this storm at this point, unless things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah with absolutely no cold air in sight. That is going to be a problem with this storm at this point, unless things change. The reason why i said not to use the GEM for temperature profile... However..with a rather stale air mass in place it is going to be difficult for NYC to see snow. Even down where I am located..I am not speaking in terms of snow. First needs to be decided if there is going to be a storm? GFS ? No. Other guidance yes..Then we worry about thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah with absolutely no cold air in sight. That is going to be a problem with this storm at this point, unless things change.I'm not sure how things really can change. As far as the big players go they all scream rain other then the far NW. If the lows further offshore or weaker we can't draw in cold or draw down cold. Both of which are necessary with surrounding air mass being barely marginal. We need a bomb In the perfect spot. Another major thread the needle to get it done at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm not sure how things really can change. As far as the big players go they all scream rain other then the far NW. If the lows further offshore or weaker we can't draw in cold or draw down cold. Both of which are necessary with surrounding air mass being barely marginal. We need a bomb In the perfect spot. Another major thread the needle to get it done at the coast Not even thread the needle. It's clearly an all rain system for pretty much everyone including the interior. However, if it winds up enough we might get some high winds and some wave action out of it. Their is just no cold air in place for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 euro stinks lol. nothing, still a storm but further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 00z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Basically starts out further east, but tucks back west. Wacky run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 euro stinks lol. nothing, still a storm but further east Umm it goes over CAPE COD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This is a special version of 2/26/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 ecm.png ecm2.png 00z ECM Wow that has to be a massive hit for E NY & points west. 2/26/10 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Umm it goes over CAPE COD! Read last post, it was further east, but it came back way west, then it almost stalls and creates another low over NY. WACKY run. 2/26/10 is going to be tossed around with this run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Read last post, it was further east, but it came back way west, then it almost stalls and creates another low over NY. WACKY run. 2/26/10 is going to be tossed around with this run for sure. I may be mistaken but every piece of guidance has this as a retrogading low ..outside the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Does it even gives us anything or is it too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I may be mistaken but every piece of guidance has this as a retrogading low ..outside the GFS.. Not to that extent though, Euro literally has 2-4 feet for a lot of people in NH, Vermont, upstate NY its a crazy snow run. However nothing for the major cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Does it even gives us anything or is it too warm? Warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 [q uote name=TeleConnectSnow" post="3171183" timestamp="1417761299]Read last post, it was further east, but it came back way west, then it almost stalls and creates another low over NY. WACKY run. 2/26/10 is going to be tossed around with this run for sure.i think we should toss the gfs and really blend cmc and euro. If u wanna go crazy you could even add a mix of the ukmet. And you get a nice storm. It's winter (meteorologist) that is and we could easily get a rain to snow event as the storm really strengthens. What the euro is showing some great wraparound moisture. We'll be on the cold side of the storm so I don't see why we can't get a full blown snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Not to that extent though, Euro literally has 2-4 feet for a lot of people in NH, Vermont, upstate NY its a crazy snow run. However nothing for the major cities Its close here, impossible to know at this range but its pulling down a ton of cold air with that 500mb signature, we are damn close to the R/S line at one point, remember Euro surface temps or any model won't see dynamic cooling in an event like this til close in, that would likely produce snow at some point all the way to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Warm Rain to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Rain to snow Doesn't have any accumulation except NW Jersey, but its too early to even talk snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This is a special version of 2/26/10It does look something like that which was one of the craziest storms I can remember. It's not often SNE is drenched while we cash in on over a foot of snow.If you look at the gfs it has all the elements in play but it seems to keep everything separated until it's too far east to affect us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It does look something like that which was one of the craziest storms I can remember. It's not often SNE is drenched while we cash in on over a foot of snow. There are some similarities to 12/30/00 as well, in how it initially develops, not so much on how deep it gets though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Its close here, impossible to know at this range but its pulling down a ton of cold air with that 500mb signature, we are damn close to the R/S line at one point, remember Euro surface temps or any model won't see dynamic cooling in an event like this til close in, that would likely produce snow at some point all the way to the coast. Also I think the ECM is known to run a little to warm as well at times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Also I think the ECM is known to run a little to warm as well at times? Its awful on surface temps, sometimes not great even inside 36 hours...I think for the 2/8/13 storm it thought NYC was going to be 39 at 00Z, we were 31 with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Doesn't have any accumulation except NW Jersey, but its too early to even talk snow totals. I think that probably has to do with it does not have much QPF associated with it till you get to Upstate NY and NE as that and offshore is where the best is located.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This is a special version of 2/26/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 What a thing of beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12am-3am temp. drop cold night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GFS has a 932 mb low just east of Greenland at 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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