SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 too late he already published a "preliminary" snow map. weenies gone wild! this storm has better cold air to work with, and I say that cautiously. the HP isn't exactly in the best location and I still think NYC-east stays all rain with this thing. a colder rain than last storm IMO This storm the issue is not so much the front end, the entire first part is going to be rain, this storm may have a chance for back end snows with some models or ensembles showing it being rather intense and vertically stacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 How does the wind look with this storm??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 This storm the issue is not so much the front end, the entire first part is going to be rain, this storm may have a chance for back end snows with some models or ensembles showing it being rather intense and vertically stacked only time we along the coast can get legit backend snows, and correct me if im wrong is the 500mb LP closing off E of LI like Xmas 02'. we had this happen February and the 500mb LP closed off over NYC and punted the backlash wayyyy north of the area IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 How does the wind look with this storm??? if it bombs out and becomes vertically stacked it can produce some big winds, especially on south shore facing beaches and east end of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 only time we along the coast can get legit backend snows, and correct me if im wrong is the 500mb LP closing off E of LI like Xmas 02'. we had this happen February and the 500mb LP closed off over NYC and punted the backlash wayyyy north of the area IIRC Usually, there is one other way I have seen backend snows, its when there is a very strong negative tilt at the upper levels but no real closed low and usually not a deep system, you may have a surface low somewhere off SNE.....12/11/93 and 12/14/10 I think are the only cases I can think of where that happened. They usually produce snow over narrow areas...12/11/93 was mostly NYC to WRN LI while the 2010 event was mostly central or ERN LI. Most backlash events are also Miller Bs, 12/25/02 is classified as a Miller A by many but to me its almost a Miller A/B mix event. There have been some Miller As that were rain to snow but generally it seems they are all rain, all snow, or snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You are joking right ? But you only predicted 5.7 inches for december in the contest ! a Foot would be fine with me since I predicted 10.3 It was joke! But in reality at this juncture anything is possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 its a preliminary snow map and I will tweak it on Monday again. I honestly think we will get a snow event with this one even here in NYC. Just hoping the main dynamics come in during the night because the cold air is just not that cold, but than again a storm this big could make it's own cold air as depicted by John's dynamic map of the euro 12z run. It'll most likely be a rain to heavy wet snow event for our area. TLS break down this OPC surface map for us.... I would like to see your skill set thank you dm http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 TLS break down this OPC surface map for us.... I would like to see your skill set thank you dm A_96hrbw.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml is this what you meant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 is this what you meant? TLS not bad, not bad at all.... Now tell us what the mb pressure of this system will be?? As extrapolated in the forecast map Is it inside or outside the benchmark??? you can do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 1014 outside of benchmark. Too easy! I'm not a beginner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 1014 outside of benchmark. Too easy! I'm not a beginner! So say you,,,T your not right tho! The extrap is 1004mb and is that good enough to bring us 3-6 inches of snow??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 So say you,,,T your not right tho! The extrap is 1004mb and is that good enough to bring us 3-6 inches of snow??? 96hrbw-2.gif no that's rather a weak system. I'm hoping the storm really bombs out to 990 or so. What do you mean I'm wrong, the low southeast of us as depicted on the map above is at 1014Edit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 no that's rather a weak system. I'm hoping the storm really bombs out to 990 or so. What do you mean I'm wrong, the low southeast of us as depicted on the map above is at 1014 He said extrapolated meaning what would the low be if you advanced those maps in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 He said extrapolated meaning what would the low be if you advanced those maps in time.oh ok sorry I didn't get that, it would be 1004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 no that's rather a weak system. I'm hoping the storm really bombs out to 990 or so. What do you mean I'm wrong, the low southeast of us as depicted on the map above is at 1014 Edit: T lesson #1 this 04 marker is the Extrapolated pressure forecast that's a ten mb drop Hoping for something ,is just like a wishcast yes or no??? We don't do that here.... do we??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 T lesson #1 this 04 marker is the Extrapolated pressure forecast that's a ten mb drop op.gif Hoping for something ,is just like a wishcast yes or no??? We don't do that here.... do we??? technically I know this already so if you wanna call it a lesson you may. Also 3 of the better models (euro,uk, and cmc) all had the low stronger than 1004 so yes I'm hoping those models are right. Plus as the first low pressure scoots up the second low will have plenty of time to form and strengthen stronger than 1000 millibars. Also where the low is getting formed there is some really warm water around there and like Anthony says warm water could fuel these type of storms just like a hurricane's main fuel is very warm waters! But yeah I know each line is 10 millibars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 technically I know this already so if you wanna call it a lesson you may. Also 3 of the better models (euro,uk, and cmc) all had the low stronger than 1004 so yes I'm hoping those models are right. Plus as the first low pressure scoots up the second low will have plenty of time to form and strengthen stronger than 1000 millibars. Also where the low is getting formed there is some really warm water around there and like Anthony says warm water could fuel these type of storms just like a hurricane's main fuel is very warm waters! But yeah I know each line is 10 millibars T... Hoping is Wishcasting! What do you see here? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std_f120_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 1004 isn't going to cut it boys. We need Boxing Day type storm -980 to draw down air cold enough for coastal snow. As modeled it's another 270 NW special Orange County might as well be Vermont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 1004 isn't going to cut it boys. We need Boxing Day type storm -980 to draw down air cold enough for coastal snow. As modeled it's another 270 NW special Orange County might as well be Vermont ty LBSF oh yeah ....lets pile on while we can Game-Set-Match from the OPC http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hr500bw.gif Vision & Mission StatementThe OPC strives to be recognized as the mariner's weather lifeline through exceptional products and customer service. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) is an integral component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) located at the NOAA Science Center in Camp Springs, MD. The primary responsibility is the issuance of marine warnings, forecasts, and guidance in text and graphical format for maritime users. Also, the OPC quality controls marine observations globally from ship, buoy, and automated marine observations for gross errors prior to being assimilated into computer model guidance. The Ocean Prediction Center also provides forecast points in coordination with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean E of 60W and N of 20N. OPC originates and issues marine warnings and forecasts, continually monitors and analyzes maritime data, and provides guidance of marine atmospheric variables for purposes of protection of life and property, safety at sea, and enhancement of economic opportunity. These products fulfill U.S. responsibilities with the World Meteorological Organization and Safety of Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS) [International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 1960 and 1974]. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/abtopc.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 ncep is a noaa weather model aka national center of environmental prediction. This particular ensemble of the 2 depicted shows the average temperatures of 850 millibars. It does show above average during the storm period, but this is also just a model and at the end of the day I would go against it especially the fact that the 850's should stay below freezing since the low is going to be way offshore. If we had a cutter id understand that and we'd have sleet or just plain rain, but since we have a coastal even 850's should get very cold as the storm deepens which is forecasted to do. its not just the storm that determines temps at all levels - take a look at the HP and the positioning of that and what it forces the wind direction to become - thats the key to this whole event - nothing to block the high from scooting from Quebec as the storm is approaching to northeast of Maine when it counts around here more of an easterly component in the wind especially this early in the season with water temps in the 40's means more liquid vs. frozen in the immediate metro area and coastal locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Anytime bud. Lets see what the 0z runs have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Anytime bud. Lets see what the 0z runs have to say guaranteed its still going to show the HP in a poor position eventually - need something like a 50/50 to lock the high into Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 [quot e name=NEG NAO" post="3170982" timestamp="1417751375]its not just the storm that determines temps at all levels - take a look at the HP and the positioning of that and what it forces the wind direction to become - thats the key to this whole event - nothing to block the high from scooting from Quebec as the storm is approaching to northeast of Maine when it counts around here more of an easterly component in the wind especially this early in the season with water temps in the 40's means more liquid vs. frozen in the immediate metro area and coastal locationsthats a strong high though we might have cad in place combined with evoporative cooling leading to dynamic cooling which should cool all layers including the surface temps assuming this storm is stronger than 1000 millibars but I hear what your saying though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 guaranteed its still going to show the HP in a poor position eventually - need something like a 50/50 to lock the high into Quebec bingo check this out on the 0Z GFS for Tuesday - high scoots east of Maine and no storm ? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GFS looks weird - once again the bias in the flawed model is putting to much emphasis on the northern stream with a strong low in southern Canada - leaving the offshore storm weak and wandering and nobody even stayed up for this model run leaving me to do the flawed play by play - now thats dangerous http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 looks to me like the GFS continues to show a fairly benign solution when compared to the other globals. i just can't get over the stark differences in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 NEG NAO, i appreciate it, no worries... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 00z GGEM is a nuke. Run right out of Anthony's garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 00z GGEM is a nuke. Run right out of Anthony's garage. 12z run was stronger. Wouldn't say a NUKE this run. Also very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12z run was stronger. Wouldn't say a NUKE this run. Also very warm. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/PT_PN_144_0000.gif 12z http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/PT_PN_156_0000.gif this is the Dec 4th guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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