IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Reminds me a lot of the last storm. It's cold enough aloft to support snow in most areas but the BL is really warm, espeically on the immediate coastal plain. Still an advisory level snow for most of NE NJ and a lot more once you get into the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 If this verified you wouldn't have the sleet issues like the last storm. It would be a heavy wet snow. The 700mb low actually passes East of the benchmark and 850's are below freezing pretty much everywhere by 03z Tuesday. On closer look, this would probably be mostly snow for just about everyone. Whether it sticks or not is a different question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 700mb low actually passes East of the benchmark No, it goes over Islip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It has a band of very strong dynamics which cool the thermal profile and allow for heavy snow over parts of NJ, Philly and SE PA. (image only up temporarily) eurodynamics2.png Yep. While it's not the February 2013 phase bomb miracle in a unfavorable pattern, it shows how phasing and closing off can really help. The LLJ on the initial WAA front end looks impressive eastern sections as the storm pushes up against the very strong high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 No, it goes over Islip Yes, you're right, I was looking at 925mb, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yep. While it's not the February 2013 phase bomb miracle in a undavorable pattern, it shows how phasing and closing off can really help. The LLJ on the initial WAA front end looks impressive eastern sections as the storm pushes up against the very strong high to the north. Regardless of how much of a fantasy it might be, this setup as advertised is already better for dynamic wet snow than the last one. But it still could use some improvement. The H7 low goes over Islip and the other mid level centers are just off the coast. So it can be assumed that we're looking at a fairly thin warm layer in the mid to low levels which could theoretically be more easily overcome by strong dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yep. While it's not the February 2013 phase bomb miracle in a unfavorable pattern, it shows how phasing and closing off can really help. The LLJ on the initial WAA front end looks impressive eastern sections as the storm pushes up against the very strong high to the north. ecmwf_mslp_uv850_neus_6.png this totally reminds me of the February blizzard 2013 the setup. I don't see why we can get some good snows with this upcoming event. We got a high to our north maybe a bit too east but has wen more favorable the last few runs on the euro. Gfs has to be out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 12z JMA is tucked right in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This has a much better shot of happening than the Nov 25-27th storm in my opinion. More things going for it. It's all about where the trough sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This has a much better shot of happening than the Nov 25-27th storm in my opinion. More things going for it. It's all about where the trough sets up. The Thanksgiving storm most certainly happened; I have languishing snowbanks to prove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Regardless of how much of a fantasy it might be, this setup as advertised is already better for dynamic wet snow than the last one. But it still could use some improvement. The H7 low goes over Islip and the other mid level centers are just off the coast. So it can be assumed that we're looking at a fairly thin warm layer in the mid to low levels which could theoretically be more easily overcome by strong dynamics. The timing of the close off also. As modeled, there is strong initial warm surge into the NYC and coastal sections. If we close off just a few hours slower, the precip will end before a changeover can work down to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The Thanksgiving storm most certainly happened; I have languishing snowbanks to prove it. I am talking about for the cities, example NYC. Anyways, for shins an giggles, one of the 00z euro members has a bomb lol, 2-3 feet from philly to NYC, pretty awesome. Weenie run of the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I am talking about for the cities, example NYC. Anyways, for shins an giggles, one of the 00z euro members has a bomb lol, 2-3 feet from philly to NYC, pretty awesome. Weenie run of the year so far. to piggy back off of this, has there ever been a situation where one of the outlier ensembel members verified.... one can dream, can't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 to piggy back off of this, has there ever been a situation where one of the outlier ensembel members verified.... one can dream, can't they? I highly doubt since the ensemble members change every run just like the OP. Its a 1 in 51 chance lol..so your saying theres a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I highly doubt since the ensemble members change every run just like the OP. Its a 1 in 51 chance lol..so your saying theres a chance? Not really correct. It's conceivable that none of the model solutions depcited verify which puts us with no set odds at all lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I think this storm is starting to gain some serious support. That being said, it still remains possible that the eventual evolution aloft supports the storm going farther east and not tucking in near the coast. That will ultimately come down to the exact interactions between the perturbations aloft. Still, if the northern stream system does gain as much forward steam as some of the models are indicating it well, we could have ourselves a very interesting situation with a low pressure system along the baroclinic zone offshore. As far as snow is concerned, keep your hopes down and don't even think about it at this point. It's going to take a lot to get snow in this situation. Meanwhile, the CMC ensembles are really aggressively suggesting that this storm will at the very least track near or just inside the 40/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 So the gfs OP is just completely lost then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 What also helps about closing off at 500mb is that it keeps much of the mid-level profile much colder than the last storm. This means that any snowflakes are more likely to survive a warm BL given that they've already been in a cold source region. The analogy is an ice cube that is almost about to melt being taken out of the freezer (pre-Thanksgiving storm) vs an ice cube that had already been stored in a mega freezer, being taken out of the freezer (this storm, hopefully). As as bluewave said, closing off at 500mb makes wraparound snows possible. We did not have that last storm. The teleconnections are pretty poor, but we do have that nice PNA spike which makes amplification possible. It's still going to come down to some perfect timing of features, and there is almost no way to avoid a good amount of tainting. But at least we have something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro ensembles are very amplified at 500mb...that's about all I needed to see. Still too far out to worry about specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 1000mb right over the 40/70 on the Euro Ens...big signal for a storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This is a bizarre storm in that NYC may see snow and Boston rain based on the track the Euro shows...of course it will change 5 times. Its entirely possible the bowling ball the Euro wants to develop in Colorado near Day 10 and may be preparing to become a Panhandle Hook type storm could be the start of changing the pattern...it will likely torch big time for a day or two if that type of storm occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 At hour 72ish, the GFS, Canadian, and Euro seem nearly identical with the positions of the northern and southern shortwaves over southern SK and the central Plains, respectively... what causes the GFS to dampen out the northern bit so much, compared with the other two models? Is that merely a product of the differences in how the PNA is handled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 That has to be one of the strangest ways of getting a snowstorm in here that I've ever seen. The February 2013 storm was too, that thing happened during a raging +NAO and it was more reminiscent of a storm that occurs in a short wave length setup in March or April, it sort of resembled 4/9/82. It probably would have went out to sea if it occurred between 12/1 and 1/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This is a bizarre storm in that NYC may see snow and Boston rain based on the track the Euro shows...of course it will change 5 times. Its entirely possible the bowling ball the Euro wants to develop in Colorado near Day 10 and may be preparing to become a Panhandle Hook type storm could be the start of changing the pattern...it will likely torch big time for a day or two if that type of storm occurs. That bolded language is music to my ears that carries the potential to drown out the impatient weenie hems and haws. Can you expand on that a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 That bolded language is music to my ears that carries the potential to drown out the impatient weenie hems and haws. Can you expand on that a bit? If we get a big cutter to track up into the Lakes and Canada it would pull a deep trough into the East Coast with a temporary -NAO starting as a ridge built up in the Atlantic out ahead of the storm as it tracked through Canada. The wildcard would be if we would get ridging to build behind it on the West Coast, if the Gulf of Alaska low would retrograded we could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 What also helps about closing off at 500mb is that it keeps much of the mid-level profile much colder than the last storm. This means that any snowflakes are more likely to survive a warm BL given that they've already been in a cold source region. The analogy is an ice cube that is almost about to melt being taken out of the freezer (pre-Thanksgiving storm) vs an ice cube that had already been stored in a mega freezer, being taken out of the freezer (this storm, hopefully). As as bluewave said, closing off at 500mb makes wraparound snows possible. We did not have that last storm. The teleconnections are pretty poor, but we do have that nice PNA spike which makes amplification possible. It's still going to come down to some perfect timing of features, and there is almost no way to avoid a good amount of tainting. But at least we have something to watch. We do have a pseudo 5/50 low, with that PV lobe swinging over Davis Strait. It causes the ridge to build over Newfoundland/Quebec and helps with phasing. It also does give room for the storm, to get close enough, to taint us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 snow depth on these dates to the el nino years... year..12/1 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 1/3 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 2/2 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 28 3/3 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 51-52....0...0...0...0...0...2...1...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...3....T...0...0...0...0...0...T...T...0...1....1...0...T...0...T...0...0...0...0...0 52-53....T...2...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...3....T...T...T...T...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 53-54....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...T...T...9...7...7...T...T...0...0....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T 57-58....0...1...1...0...1...T...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...4...3...T...2...1...0...0...0....0...0...1...T...T...8...5...1...T...T....0...0...0...0...2...0..11..T...0...0 58-59....0...0...0...2...1...1...T...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...1...0....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...5...1...0...0...0...0...T 63-64....0...0...0...0...T...T...1...T...6...5...2....2...T...0...1..13..8...T...0...0...0....0...0...T...2...0...T...6...5...2...1....0...0...0...1...0...0...1...0...0...0 65-66....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...2...2...7....8...4...2...T...0...0...0...0...4...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 68-69....0...0...0...0...0...5...1...T...0...2...0....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...T...0..15.11..9...6...5...2...1....3...T...1...T...0...0...0...0...0...0 69-70....T...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...2...4...2....1...1...2...3...2...1...4...3...2...T....0...3...1...0...1...2...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...4 72-73....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2....0...0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 76-77....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...2....T...T...2...1...6...5...3...2...2...2....1...4...2...1...T...0...2...T...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0 77-78....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0....1...0...1...0...2...1..15..11..T...T....T...T..18.10.10..6...5...4...4...3....8...4...3...1...T...1...0...0...0...0 79-80....0...0...0...0...0...0...3...T...0...0...0....0...1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...0...T....0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0 82-83....0...0...0...0...3...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...1...T...T...0...0...0....0...0...2.14..16...8...3...T...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 86-87....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...T...1...7...9...6....3...T...0...0...2...1...T...4...1...0....0...0...0...2...0...0...0...0...0...0 87-88....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2....2...5...9...4...3...1...0...0...2...1....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0 91-92....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0....0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...1...2...0...0 92-93....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T...0...0....T...0...T...1...T...0...0...0...0...0....T...0...2...0...1...0...0...1...T...T....0...T...0....8...2...1...0...0...0...0 94-95....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...8...7...5...4...2...0...0...T...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 97-98....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0 02-03....0...0...5...1...0...0...0...0...5...2...0....0...T...1...0...T...T...T...0...2...1....0....0...5...2...T..19.12..4...2...1....T...3...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 03-04....0...0..13..6...T...T...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...T...5...3...2...2...8...7....7...2...1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...4...0...0...0...0 04-05....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...2...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...0..14.13.11....8...6...4...0...0...0...1...T...4...6....5...3...1...1...0...0...0...1...0...0 06-07....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...1....T...0...0...0...2...2...0...0...2...0....0...0...0...0...0...3...T...0...0...0 09-10....0...0...0...0...0...0...9...7...2...0...1....T...T...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....1...0...0..10...8..10..4...0..21..15..4...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think NYC sees a foot plus. In reality allot of us got burned with the last storm right up to the the last minute. This is still a thread the needle pattern. Waaaaaaaayyyyyyy the F to early You are joking right ? But you only predicted 5.7 inches for december in the contest ! a Foot would be fine with me since I predicted 10.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You are joking right ? But you only predicted 5.7 inches for december in the contest ! a Foot would be fine with me since I predicted 10.3 He's joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think NYC sees a foot plus. In reality allot of us got burned with the last storm right up to the the last minute. This is still a thread the needle pattern. Waaaaaaaayyyyyyy the F to early too late he already published a "preliminary" snow map. weenies gone wild! this storm has better cold air to work with, and I say that cautiously. the HP isn't exactly in the best location and I still think NYC-east stays all rain with this thing. a colder rain than last storm IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.