MJO812 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Not really . Looks nothing the 12z OP and matches other guidance . The UKMET wanted no part of this either does the 0z Euro or it`s ensembles . Don`t get fooled by 1 OP run. It would have been nice to steal a little something before the warmest part of the progression here but was not likely for the coast and now I would just move on . Next week temp wise will be B/N . But then look for Day 10 - 15 ( and most likely beyond ) look to be A . GEFS also doesn't want any part of it. I guess it was too good to be true. Euro has been showing way too many weenie fantasy storms of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The "LittleWhiteHope" for XMAS? http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_90HR.gif Need coastal low to deepen at expense of the GLL which it has over last two days of following this time frame, now looks boarderline snowy. Also the warm period upcoming mid-month looks dry with a mostly NW wind at surface keeping 2mT's below their 850mb anomaly potential, which seems to be about 7-8Cdegs., ie. 5C instead of the normal -2C to -3C for the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The 00z ECMWF ensembles weren't that bad. Quite a few members still showing a storm near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The 00z ECMWF ensembles weren't that bad. Quite a few members still showing a storm near the coast. Still worth tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Friday night and Saturday afternoon and night looks to be a rather wet period. 1-2" of rain likely as we continue to improve from the drought conditions over the Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 the place that needs the rainfall and or snowfall right now is the reservior locations for instance the ones that supply NYC http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml Friday night and Saturday afternoon and night looks to be a rather wet period. 1-2" of rain likely as we continue to improve from the drought conditions over the Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Giant at the 12z GGEM, what a piece of garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Giant at the 12z GGEM, what a piece of garbage. Hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Hurricane? 992mb on the NJ coast. 3-5" of rain. Almost double that for southern NJ. Cuts off and barely moves for two days right off the NJ coast. Eventually fills and drifts East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Before that mess, it has a real soaker for Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The 12z OP GFS keeps the 850 0 line up in Canada from day 8-16..I have never seen that before in December..in never goes down in the states.Is that possible?..looks like an early October map wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS is an outlier right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The 12z OP GFS keeps the 850 0 line up in Canada from day 8-16..I have never seen that before in December..in never goes down in the states.Is that possible?..looks like an early October map wow Yep! Going to get worse before it gets better. From next weekend till the 20th looks pretty warm...but there is light at the end of the tunnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 In today's comic, the CMC has 925mb winds of 70kts just off the coast of Long Island at 18z Tuesday and 60kts areawide thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yep! Going to get worse before it gets better. From next weekend till the 20th looks pretty warm...but there is light at the end of the tunnel Numerous 00Z GFS ensemble members had a pretty good look Day 12-16 as far as more troughiness in the East and ridging starting to build out West....the Op has not had one run yet where it showed that but the ensembles which maybe had 1-2 members showing it a few days ago have more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Numerous 00Z GFS ensemble members had a pretty good look Day 12-16 as far as more troughiness in the East and ridging starting to build out West....the Op has not had one run yet where it showed that but the ensembles which maybe had 1-2 members showing it a few days ago have more now. This maybe a stupid question but I am trying to learn so forgive me. Do the ensembles tend to pick up on changes before the OP? Or does the OP pick up on changes before the ensembles, And thanks for answering just trying to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The UKMET just does that Canadian phase further east. The 12z Euro should have a decent idea since its so good with phases and southern stream interactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This maybe a stupid question but I am trying to learn so forgive me. Do the ensembles tend to pick up on changes before the OP? Or does the OP pick up on changes before the ensembles, And thanks for answering just trying to learn This may be an equally stupid answer, but I would imagine that ensembles should theoretically identify subtle changes before the operational run, simply by virtue of testing dozens of different atmospheric states as opposed to one. Obviously verification scores will differ from agency to agency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 12z ECMWF is 1.00"+ of rain all areas for this weekend, and trending back towards a less progressive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The Euro is probably going to come West with the second system. Much less progressive. That's if we even have a second system. The first low is hanging on offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Looks like it will try and pull the initial system back towards the coast. Another run, another outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Rain moving in early morning hours on Tuesday for the Coast, Snow 20 miles West of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm convinced now that the GFS is completely out to lunch. 996mb inside the benchmark. It's probably frozen or mostly frozen outside of Suffolk County. Would have to look at things more closely before saying for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 992mb just inside the benchmark, 71W, 41N. The city is definitly snow by this panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Only about 0.10-0.25" falls after 18z Tuesday. Pretty much a Tuesday morning/afternoon wet snow event for the interior. The coast picks up a few inches as it pulls away and cools. 988mb in the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Only about 0.10-0.25" falls after 18z Tuesday. Pretty much a Tuesday morning/afternoon wet snow event for the interior. The coast picks up a few inches as it pulls away and cools. 988mb in the Gulf of Maine. Total QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The Euro fulfills two requirements to get some measurable snow to the city and coast in a terrible teleconnection pattern this run. It phases and closes off at 500 so there is some light backlash snows to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Total QPF? Rough estimate is 0.75-1.00" out your way. Tough to tell exactly since it's counting the rain for this weekend on totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 That has to be one of the strangest ways of getting a snowstorm in here that I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The Euro fulfills two requirements to get some measurable snow to the city and coast in a terrible teleconnection pattern this run. It phases and closes off at 500 so there is some light backlash snows to the coast. It has a band of very strong dynamics which cool the thermal profile and allow for heavy snow over parts of NJ, Philly and SE PA. (image only up temporarily) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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