jjvesnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 LHV BL is 24 @ 120 - .02 BL is 25 @ 126 .03 Plenty cold at the surface inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Normally for freezing rain we have some sort of WAA, so the mid levels flood with warm air and CAD can keep the surface cold. In this case, 925mb is below freezing, so even though 850mb is rather warm, it looks more like sleet. Now, if you were to really bump up the dynamics, you could bring some of that warmer air down, but you might also warm the surface because you don't have that strong CAD keeping the surface cold. You really need everything to time out perfectly for ice, one of the reasons why it's so rare around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Looks like the old need the first low further west so the second low is closer to the coast juggling routine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Does someone have the Euro soundings yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Only 3-4 of the GFS ensembles really support the Euro solution, its gotten a couple of events correct though this year...I tend to trust the Euro in El ninos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Winters over , Dec is over , Winter cxl. Boy this pattern sucks , Guys are gona bust for the winter , Mets are going to have to go back to how they look at winters . So NE looking at a snowstorm , A possible ice storm in the lower hudson valley , And some frozen in KNYC . All in what was suppose to be a torch week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The UKMET isn't even close. We'll have to see how many Euro ensemble members are on board to see if that OP run has any support. That southern stream low needs to close off like the Euro is showing 96 hrs otherwise it will kicked east like UKMET. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html It would really help if we could put some points on the board next week that would make the nails go down easier in the 10 -15 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The UKMET isn't even close. We'll have to see how many Euro ensemble members are on board to see if that OP run has any support. That southern stream low needs to close off like the Euro is showing 96 hrs otherwise it will kicked east like UKMET. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html The pattern next week supports a cut-off or closed low somewhere over East . If this comes close enough, strong winds could be threat. With a tight pressure gradient with the strong high to north and east. The UKMET has the high at 1050mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Winters over , Dec is over , Winter cxl. Boy this pattern sucks , Guys are gona bust for the winter , Mets are going to have to go back to how they look at winters . So NE looking at a snowstorm , A possible ice storm in the lower hudson valley , And some frozen in KNYC . All in what was suppose to be a torch week . any cold air? Otherwise this is a rainy week for the coast/city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 many el nino Decembers were wet not white until around Christmas time...If they were white at the beginning of the month it got mild after and before Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 any cold air? Otherwise this is a rainy week for the coast/cityThis pattern is gonna benefit anyone away from the coastal plain. Our first legit shot of snow from NYC-east have to wait until december 20th onward since D 10-15 are horrendous during the pattern reload.Im kind of excited for this. If the pattern reloads for the 20th we may be able to possibly set ourselves up for a white christmas. Anyone ever consider that within all these weenie suicides in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 any cold air? Otherwise this is a rainy week for the coast/city Days 4 - 10 are Cold . Def beat what the ensembles had for us this week in the LR from a week ago . In regards to the storm . too early , not sure . Would favors those just away from the coast and in NE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 This pattern is gonna benefit anyone away from the coastal plain. Our first legit shot of snow from NYC-east have to wait until december 20th onward since D 10-15 are horrendous during the pattern reload. Im kind of excited for this. If the pattern reloads for the 20th we may be able to possibly set ourselves up for a white christmas. Anyone ever consider that within all these weenie suicides in here? There's plenty of cold air after the 1st cutoff. Just need the timing of the vort interactions to be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 We have to lead a walking your in NYC Saturday and models seem to show a complete washout. Am I reading it correctly that Saturday's gonna be a steady rain pretty much all day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 We have to lead a walking your in NYC Saturday and models seem to show a complete washout. Am I reading it correctly that Saturday's gonna be a steady rain pretty much all day? The morning looks spotty, steady rain by afternoon however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Some crazy 12z Euro Ensemble members in there. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 That's record warmth in the Midwest...even if it's muted it will still be warm! I don't know what you want me to say? That warmth will get to us at some point, we can only avoid it for so long. I would love to see some cold start building in Canada on these op runs. Next week threats looks meh for the coast. No cold air mass to tap over the conus.I hear you bud but all I'm saying is we can't trust these models beyond day 5. Yes this pattern is crappy but don't ever expect a warm up with precipitation falling. If it's dry late next week than we could get some warming but I doubt it as this of the year climo is on our side and it's easier to be cold than warm. It is December after all. I hear you, you're only stating what the models are saying but you've got to go beyond the models and make a final decision yourself as models are only guidance. Keep up the good work though, your a great poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Surprised no one has mentioned the Full Moon Sunday since the kitchen sink was mentioned - also I tend to doubt this would be an ice storm anywhere in the region - more like a snow/rain mix inland and plain rain in the immediate metro and coast - HP is in an unfavorable location to the north for a frozen event so the marine air and east wind will eventually out trump any attempt of cold enough air to become involved or CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 Surprised no one has mentioned the Full Moon Sunday since the kitchen sink was mentioned - also I tend to doubt this would be an ice storm anywhere in the region - more like a snow/rain mix inland and plain rain in the immediate metro and coast - HP is in an unfavorable location to the north for a frozen event so the marine air and east wind will eventually out trump any attempt of cold enough air to become involved or CAD Agree, last time i checked a HP system no matter how strong moving EAST of maine isnt good for anyone save for maybe NE/NNE or those with substantial elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The 18z GFS is a little stronger with the shortwave through 66 hours than 12z but it's not even on the same planet as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The GFS is so far north with the surface low that we almost get dry slotted on Saturday. It's still going to be fairly wet, but once again nothing close to the Euro, or GGEM for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 While the 12z UKMET is East with the first system, it supports the Euro's thinking post day 5 of a large 500mb low over East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Agree, last time i checked a HP system no matter how strong moving EAST of maine isnt good for anyone save for maybe NE/NNE or those with substantial elevation Would you prefer no high at all? Even if the location is not desirable it can't hurt to have a strong high close by because we could at least see some CAD go on. Then again given your location I could see why it's not a good thing regardless but it at least gives inland areas a better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Surprised nobody posted the 00z GGEM, 976mb just outside of the benchmark. Very wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Surprised nobody posted the 00z GGEM, 976mb just outside of the benchmark. Very wrapped up. No precip really gets thrown back at us, too far OTS. it was a big storm though. GFS continues to be OTS, EURO will be interesting, some of the ensemble members were jacked up, so I expect something similar as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The gfs is an absolute killjoy. It has squat and the massive torch continues after. I really hope it's wrong or its gonna be a very sad closing in on the holidays. It roasts us from the 11 through the entire run or up till the 20th with no hope of a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah hard to not give some credit since its been very consistent with the warmth the past several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It was pretty much expected to be warm now thru about the 20th of the month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It was pretty much expected to be warm now thru about the 20th of the month.. I just hope it's not like 50s or 60s on Xmas eve/Xmas or even worse 60s and rain. Talk about depressing. Of course the pattern won't just turn on a dime either post 12/20 so a mild holiday season could be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The gfs is an absolute killjoy. It has squat and the massive torch continues after. I really hope it's wrong or its gonna be a very sad closing in on the holidays. It roasts us from the 11 through the entire run or up till the 20th with no hope of a change.I'm sure next run will show something continent different. The overall global features don't support this.. Right now anyway.Edit : yes the GFS has been somewhat consistent in terms of warmth, but in the upper atmosphere it has not held as steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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