TonyLovesSnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 TonyLovesToPointFingers Those that live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. BTW, it's you're i still think next weeks potential is real and if euro verifies I'm going with it. Euro has always been good with miller A storms! Hopefully it won't be warm but at least were tracking something in what some people said it would be a historical torch? Where is it? It's 46 and raining here in Riverdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I was literally going over there to ask some of those guys if they knew if phase 7 and 8 during Ninos in December were warmer than Jan and Feb and then I saw that posted. I'm curious how other phases play out and the progression from Dec to Jan and Feb. I also noticed the 20 day lag map posted yesterday and its progression from widespread warm anomalies across the CONUS to cooler anomalies in the east. We very well could see a huge flip then from this month to January especially if we factor stratospheric warming and the Eurasian and AO correlations from October into Jan-March. It could also take longer like in 06/07 but at some point what's been established these past couple of months should get entrenched within our winter pattern unless a strong Nino develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The Euro is super amplified with the shortwave on Sunday, almost a bowling ball esque look now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The Euro is super amplified with the shortwave on Sunday, almost a bowling ball esque look now. Still ends up being a coastal low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Closes off at H5 hr 96, 850's are really warm right into the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Hr 102 low kissing obx rain in our area..surface and 850's north of high point nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Still ends up being a coastal low I think it's important to note that it's not your standard coastal low. This develops over land, and then cuts off east of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Hr 102 low kissing obx rain in our area..surface and 850's north of high point nj It's actually IP/ZR for NW NJ starting hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Hr 108 surface 32 line drops to I-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I think it's important to note that it's not your standard coastal low. This develops over land, and then cuts off east of VA. Yep, a cut off low. Surface line is pretty close to the City at 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Hr 114 surface down to cnj...nasty ice for northern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 32 line is right near the city at 117 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 ummmm? the sun is not furthest in the winter chief Haha that puts an end to that post lol. Not only is it not true, it is actually the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Surface does not move from 114-120...verbatim nasty ice storm for north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 This is a nasty run from NYC westward. Mostly rain on the coast with a change to sleet or even ice and a possibly icestorm for inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Still going at he 126...sne gets a good snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Moving onto Monday, you have the left over energy and low hung up East of NJ, with a closed H5 low over Wisconsin and a piece of the arctic jet dropping in. Should be a fun solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Still going at he 126...sne gets a good snowstorm Coast warms up as the low is close to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 This is a nasty run from NYC westward. Mostly rain on the coast with a change to sleet or even ice and a possibly icestorm for inland areas Looks like sleet. 925mb looks too cold to support freezing rain on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 700s are cold through the entire event . That`s a brutal ice set up just NW . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Well this is certainly your kitchen sink storm on the Euro. Starts off with rain showers on Friday night, Saturday and Sunday are mostly washouts, and then a little bit of ice, sleet and snow for some areas lasting into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 the storm on the euro has been creeping east each run. if this goes further east on future runs we might not get much of anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 700s are cold through the entire event . That`s a brutal ice set up just NW . . 700mb is above 850mb. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the key with IP vs ZR is that with ZR you need the cold air to be very shallow, otherwise the rain freezes before hitting the surface and you end up with sleet. So in this case the rain would reach 925mb and become sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Backside energy is now generating the second low, right over OBX hr 156. Looks to cut off again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Second low is going to be too far East for much of an impact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Over 2" liquid with this system for 99% of the sub-forum. That's pretty impressive for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 700mb is above 850mb. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the key with IP vs ZR is that with ZR you need the cold air to be very shallow, otherwise the rain freezes before hitting the surface and you end up with sleet. So in this case the rain would reach 925mb and become sleet. Yeh you guys are are colder at almost every level . FRZ is possible there . BL 33-falling into the upper 20`s - 850s start + 1 fall to -1 700s - 3 . That`s close just NASTY . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 700s are cold through the entire event . That`s a brutal ice set up just NW . . What does the surface look like. Brutal ice storm would require temps 30 and below. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 What does the surface look like. Brutal ice storm would require temps 30 and below. IMO.It looks like a lot of sleet to me. I wouldn't get hung up on this, it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 What does the surface look like. Brutal ice storm would require temps 30 and below. IMO. LHV BL is 24 @ 120 - .02 BL is 25 @ 126 .03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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