baseball0618 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS is not way west. It's a little warmer at 850mb but that's about it really. IMO it's still way too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS is not way west. It's a little warmer at 850mb but that's about it really. IMO it's still way too dry. a little? its a torch bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ECM and RGEM for the win, not paying attention to the goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 a little? its a torch bro yes at 850 mb the surface is a little warmer but the rest of the thermal profiles are about where they have been, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My current thinking, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS has warmer low levels (850 on down). Its pretty rainy along I-95, that's for sure. If I only had the GFS to look at, I'd probably go coating to 2 inches at home, leaning more towards the coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS has warmer low levels (850 on down). Its pretty rainy along I-95, that's for sure. If I only had the GFS to look at, I'd probably go coating to 2 inches at home, leaning more towards the coating. What are your thoughts for central bucks? I am thinking 4"-6" if you blend everything together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS has warmer low levels (850 on down). Its pretty rainy along I-95, that's for sure. If I only had the GFS to look at, I'd probably go coating to 2 inches at home, leaning more towards the coating. Yep...even I see a lot of rain with the GFS. Please God NO! Big bust for me if GFS verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Meanwhile, before GFS came out Mt Holly updated their FB page saying they would be upping total at 3:30. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What are your thoughts for central bucks? I am thinking 4"-6" if you blend everything together. That's probably reasonable. So far, despite the apparent day shift vs. night shift battle at Mt. Holly (not to mention an apparent overnight war with Upton), their maps have seemed reasonable to me, or at least in the ballpark. I've been distracted by personal matters and haven't put a lot of effort into accumulation thoughts until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My current thinking, FWIW... 2014-Nov-26-SnowMap.jpg That's a solid map. I'm thinking 3" IMBY. You'll probably do better with your elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 New Mt Holly briefing http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Noting wind and heavy snow potentially causing power outages in the Lehigh Valley And Poconos Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That's probably reasonable. So far, despite the apparent day shift vs. night shift battle at Mt. Holly (not to mention an apparent overnight war with Upton), their maps have seemed reasonable to me, or at least in the ballpark. I've been distracted by personal matters and haven't put a lot of effort into accumulation thoughts until today. Thanks buddy. NAM,EURO,RGEM seem to be dropping a lot of QPF, around 1" or so. GFS is less and warmer. I personally think its time to use the NAM/RGEM more as we are very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thanks buddy. NAM,EURO,RGEM seem to be dropping a lot of QPF, around 1" or so. GFS is less and warmer. I personally think its time to use the NAM/RGEM more as we are very close. The GFS warm trend should be alarming since its been colder, and the Euro is still rather warm. In that regard, the GFS and EC are actually closer thermally, though the NAM also warmed somewhat. Although the NAM puts down well over an inch of QPF at, say, TTN, by my estimate less than half of that will translate into "10:1" snowfall.. in other words, compared to total storm precip, the total snow:total water ratio looks like its less than 5:1 on the NAM. This is because it fails to bring surface temps down to freezing. If the NAM can't do that... Obviously further NW its a different story. So far, anyway, at least on the NAM. RGEM has a super steep snowfall gradient. If you are on the right side of that, you're gonna be golden, but on the wrong side you'll be very unhappy if you wanted snow. Right now that gradient is almost directly on top of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ray it's been a long time since we had one of these normal climo I95 rain/snow line storms. Feels like the 80's and 90's again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 While the RGEM looks great for the NW suburbs and Lehigh Valley, that has to be tempered by what the GFS just showed. I think a more conservative forecast of 3 to 6 inches in Bucks, Montgomery and Chester counties with 5 to 10 inches in the Lehigh Valley seems pretty reasonable at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM Sent from my iPhone Philadelphia hopefully gets in the snow; the R/S line should be close to them. The GFS had the 0C 850 line right over them. Out here I think 3-6+ is ok to predict at this time. 2-4 for the city, less if models get warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ukie looks great- huge servings of mashed potato snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ukie looks great- huge servings of mashed potato snowsEven for lower Mont/Bucks?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even for lower Mont/Bucks? Sent from my iPhone It looks great for even NYC from what they are stating in their forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It looks great for even NYC from what they are stating in their forumHopefully an encouraging sign for the afternoon Euro to come.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Philadelphia hopefully gets in the snow; the R/S line should be close to them. The GFS had the 0C 850 line right over them. Out here I think 3-6+ is ok to predict at this time. 2-4 for the city, less if models get warmer.Yeah Matt you're gonna do well out there in Collegeville. Hoping for 3-5" maybe more in the Villanova area. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Is the ukie that reliable with thermal levels as much as the NAM or rgem though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even for lower Mont/Bucks? Sent from my iPhone Stronger low colder 850's than GFS don't know mid level warmth but i think they would do ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Stronger low colder 850's than GFS don't know mid level warmth but i think they would do ok How about for Trenton area/Mercer County? I'm really fringing this event. The R/SN line is going to be right about over my house the whole day, gonna be a frustrating gradient. Hopefully I end up on the right side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It really is quite the gradient on the rgem. Ive been burned living on tge warmer side of it before. It is pretty accurate when dealing with rain snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wow, crazy gradient over Philadelphia. It's like going from a desert to a rain forest. Hopefully Downingtown will get some good snow, as it seems to be in a sort of safe spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 EURO looks drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Colder and a touch drier, solid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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