Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Anyone want to comment on how the Euro looks for this region? Excellent, held serve on the QPF and cooled down slightly. Similar to the NAM/RGEM, but not quite as robust. Great for I-95 and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ECM didn't really cool down, slightly east low placement yet expanded precipitation field to the NW thus better for those deeper in interior PA. Only small changes with snow amounts upped in Berks and Lehigh and trimmed 1-2" in lower portions of SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Excellent, held serve on the QPF and cooled down slightly. Similar to the NAM/RGEM, but not quite as robust. Great for I-95 and NW. From the maps I've seen the gradient between good snows and no snows is so extremely tight. My location just east of NE philly looks to in good shape but go like 10 miles SE and it's a different story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah, Im comfortable here for 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 000FXUS61 KPHI 250534AFDPHIAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ1234 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 **WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILLBE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UPTHE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR06Z THURSDAY. THE STORM...OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITHPROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLYTRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULDBE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTIONBUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT ISUSUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BITTOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSIONINTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLYHILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATEENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMALAXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDEROF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCHAMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURINGMIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDINGDURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALLSHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THATCOULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THEAFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THERISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWNBUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURESTILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMINGALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEPTHEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OFTHIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVENSNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAINFROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFOREENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THEDAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILLMODERATE DURING THE EVENING.NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS0.1 INCHES.AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES ANDVARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. DRAG/FRANCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM is 6-10" for all of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nam at 6z is WEST and WARM from what I can see... PHL is 80% rain here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM is 6-10" for all of PA No idea where you are seeing this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nam is like all rain dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nam is like all rain dude You don't have to go far from PHL for it to be mainly heavy wet snow... but yeah, at PHL proper, a lot is rain or white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You don't have to go far from PHL for it to be mainly heavy wet snow... but yeah, at PHL proper, a lot is rain or white rain.Mid levels look warm...could be a death band of sleet between the transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You don't have to go far from PHL for it to be mainly heavy wet snow... but yeah, at PHL proper, a lot is rain or white rain. Upper Bucks/Mont county and especially Allentown N and W probably will get a nice thump...so yeah not that far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks similar to last years storm the day after the super bowl but with more rain at the beginning and a little less snow in eastern areas. Good snow for far N+W. Enough for a white thanksgiving on grass near I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 hopefully we can get this to change over to heavy wet snow as early as possible. so much warm air around. bust potential on higher prediction numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The total snow accumulation map from Eurowx.com shows 0-3" snow for all of NJ except Warren and Sussex counties where it is up to 5". Philly would be about an inch. Their maps look pretty realistic to me. This is from the 0Z Euro run. Sorry I don't know how to post images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Q-town I would think the bust potential is very high with this one on either side. Whoever sits under that death band is gonna get a really good thump and could bust low. Those in subsidence on either side where it struggles to freeze could also bust too high with totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 No idea where you are seeing this.... My apologies, Instant Weather Maps and coolwx.com graphs seemed to indicate mostly or all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM solution looks wacky.I know there's gonna be mixing issues but I think that solution is too warm. Putting a lot of stock into the 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM solution looks wacky.I know there's gonna be mixing issues but I think that solution is too warm. Putting a lot of stock into the 12z RGEM 12 NAM is colder and a tick East fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Does anyone have a linjk to the p-type maps off the RGEM? I lost the link... Does anyone think that sleet may be an underrated p-type here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Does anyone have a linjk to the p-type maps off the RGEM? I lost the link... Does anyone think that sleet may be an underrated p-type here? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Does anyone have a linjk to the p-type maps off the RGEM? I lost the link... Does anyone think that sleet may be an underrated p-type here? Possibly on the sleet. The NAM closes off a 700mb low over Delaware then tracks it inland which is the kiss of death. So that warm tongue will certainly spell sleet and a lot of it for some folks imho. Not sure where that zone lies just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looking at my location, the sounding for the 12Z NAM show SFC and 1000mb temps at 0.8 and 0.2C with all other layers below freezing. I think I am looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM very interesting, turns Philly over to mix between 8-9am, then over to snow between 10-11am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Boom That would be a rain/snow mix for you in northeast philly my friend, not a boom for you. boom for me in west chester though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Warnings up for upper Bucks, MontCo and ChesCo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That would be a rain/snow mix for you in northeast philly my friend, not a boom for you. boom for me in west chester though I realize that, but it is very close, plus I will be stormchasing anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I realize that, but it is very close, plus I will be stormchasing anyway GFS is all rain for philly too according to snowmaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS is all rain for philly too according to snowmaps Yeah I'm hearing the same, can't access models from my phone, but I'm hearing it's way west, doesn't even look like the LV gets much accumulation. But then there's the NAM lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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