RedSky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 First call Berks, Lehigh 8-12" 7-9" Upper Bucks, Montco, West Chester 5-7" Central regions 3-6" Southeast regions Philly 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just bought my first snowblower... Let me first apologize for the snow hole that will set up over my house and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 First call Berks, Lehigh 8-12" 7-9" Upper Bucks, Montco, West Chester 5-7" Central regions 3-6" Southeast regions Philly 2-3" I'll easily take that. Somehow I think this will over-perform or under-perform...just not go as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc17926 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 weathernation has me going "what the what?!" http://news.weathernationtv.com/2014/11/24/huge-storm-impact-east-coast-likely-cause-huge-thanksgiving-travel-headaches/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 weathernation has me going "what the what?!" http://news.weathernationtv.com/2014/11/24/huge-storm-impact-east-coast-likely-cause-huge-thanksgiving-travel-headaches/ It's back-assed. Turn your PC screen 180 degrees and it may be correct for the precip in the Philly area. (Heavier W, Lighter E) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 weathernation has me going "what the what?!" http://news.weathernationtv.com/2014/11/24/huge-storm-impact-east-coast-likely-cause-huge-thanksgiving-travel-headaches/ Driving up web view I see. Never heard of them...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just bought my first snowblower... Let me first apologize for the snow hole that will set up over my house and surrounding areas. What, no snow pile this year??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Bullseye in SW NJ? I'd like whatever they are smoking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 First call Berks, Lehigh 8-12" 7-9" Upper Bucks, Montco, West Chester 5-7" Central regions 3-6" Southeast regions Philly 2-3" We think closely. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What, no snow pile this year???HahaOh don't you worry, that pile last year was mainly from a second story deck. I still have to shovel that, and will definitely strategically point the blower in the right direction Last year was a banner year for the pile. We can only hope we reach such heights this year! 2014-15 the year of the pile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Early and late season snowstorms are hard to forecast and can depend greatly on where the best banding sets up. Models often have trouble with that too. I remember several storms (the most recent being early November 2012) where heavy snow was expected NW of I-95, and it ended up along or east of it, because that's just where the banding set up. I suspect some of you remember how badly the forecast for November 2012 went... (I was among those who was off, though got lucky at TTN because they were exactly on the opposite side and distance from the heavy banding from what I thought, so locally my forecast was right... for the wrong reasons). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Haha Oh don't you worry, that pile last year was mainly from a second story deck. I still have to shovel that, and will definitely strategically point the blower in the right direction Last year was a banner year for the pile. We can only hope we reach such heights this year! 2014-15 the year of the pile! Hear hear! It would be awesome if we could reach similar heights this year without having to get overly creative... (Credit to forum member BuffaloWeather for the pic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM is a beast, stormvista shows 2+" in philly at 42 hours even though it starts off warm, lets see how it finishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Early and late season snowstorms are hard to forecast and can depend greatly on where the best banding sets up. Models often have trouble with that too. I remember several storms (the most recent being early November 2012) where heavy snow was expected NW of I-95, and it ended up along or east of it, because that's just where the banding set up. I suspect some of you remember how badly the forecast for November 2012 went... (I was among those who was off, though got lucky at TTN because they were exactly on the opposite side and distance from the heavy banding from what I thought, so locally my forecast was right... for the wrong reasons). If I recall correctly for that one, a winter storm warning went up (in this area at least) early in the morning on the day of. And we got all rain except for a coating at the very end. But it was kind of a last minute upgrade to the forecast was it not? Between that and it being so early (November 8th??), it didn't bother me all that much. (Only when I hear people talking about the 6-8-12" they got, lol). This is more "in season", and unless a lot changes in the next 24 hours I'd be somewhat surprised if we didn't get some accumulation. Subject to change of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 'Jeez, I'm just used to seeing a couple snow showers and flurries on or around Thanksgiving. I'm gonna be in Downingtown, so I'm expecting to see a lot of white, and maybe brown if it's really dense and picks up dirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 interesting as now, PHL only I-95 city under WSW.....we'll see, although I can see the thought that Philly and even some of DC area might do better than NYC here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 We think closely. Sent from my iPad time will tell, of course, but this is a pretty aggresive forecast, i'd probably cut these numbers in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM is a beast, stormvista shows 2+" in philly at 42 hours even though it starts off warm, lets see how it finishes It sure is! Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 time will tell, of course, but this is a pretty aggresive forecast, i'd probably cut these numbers in half. This forecast goes with about 99.9% of every forecaster pro and amateur in the area lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Early and late season snowstorms are hard to forecast and can depend greatly on where the best banding sets up. Models often have trouble with that too. I remember several storms (the most recent being early November 2012) where heavy snow was expected NW of I-95, and it ended up along or east of it, because that's just where the banding set up. I suspect some of you remember how badly the forecast for November 2012 went... (I was among those who was off, though got lucky at TTN because they were exactly on the opposite side and distance from the heavy banding from what I thought, so locally my forecast was right... for the wrong reasons). Definitely. I believe this could be the type of storm were you see areas in the banding switching to heavy snow several hours before other areas on either side of the banding sitting on subsidence and not having the rates to cool and changeover. Mesos are gonna be real important on this one. The boom/bust on this forecast is definitely high. Some people are going to get hit pretty hard while others will have bad mixing issues or subsidence. It should be interesting to see how the RGEM picks up banding over the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 wow....NAM is INTENSE. that just woke me up.. (more than coffee) through 60 hours - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 wow....NAM is INTENSE. that just woke me up.. Then you need to check the RGEM. It ups the ante even further. Dynamics are legit, and the area cools quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Then you need to check the RGEM. It ups the ante even further. Dynamics are legit, and the area cools quickly. Indeed. Good to see it's got some backup... as we all know what the nam could do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here is my snowfall map for the area. WildWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS much drier than NAM or RGEM, not surprising of course. Probably an average of GFS/Nam in terms of precip not a bad idea at this point. Placecment of the low would argue for a somwhat wetter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0z UKie looks good no changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Early and late season snowstorms are hard to forecast and can depend greatly on where the best banding sets up. Models often have trouble with that too. I remember several storms (the most recent being early November 2012) where heavy snow was expected NW of I-95, and it ended up along or east of it, because that's just where the banding set up. I suspect some of you remember how badly the forecast for November 2012 went... (I was among those who was off, though got lucky at TTN because they were exactly on the opposite side and distance from the heavy banding from what I thought, so locally my forecast was right... for the wrong reasons). Very true, was forecasted with a sloppy inch for that. Ended up with 13" quite possibly the heaviest early Nov snowfall for the area ever. Although the sloppy inch is more likely inorder for this goaround (but you never know). I still think with no blocking, this storm will disappoint more than please; like so many of those 2007-2008 busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All I know is that its currently 67 degrees at 12:30 am.... In late November... I'm seeing some forecasts (like weather underground fi) showing 5-8". It just doesn't seem possible. I do remember a storm in the late 90s in March where we got 7" of heavy wet snow on grass and the roads were just slushy or wet... But it wasn't 67 less then 36 hours before the event started. I just can't see any snow that might fall sticking on these surfaces at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's all going to come down to where the best banding sets up. It doesn't matter that its in the 60s right now, if you get rates of 1-2" an hour it'll stick to everything and the temps will crash fast if you get under one of those bands. If it just stays at a light to moderate snow than yes accumation will be difficult especially mid day. Inevitably there will be more on the grass and cars than blacktop but if it does snow at a good clip everything will be white by Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Anyone want to comment on how the Euro looks for this region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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