delijoe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT's commentary on the 0z Euro is pretty much nothing is changed... His first guess is 1-2" for the city with more to the west and rain on the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT's commentary on the 0z Euro is pretty much nothing is changed... His first guess is 1-2" for the city with more to the west and rain on the coast... I agree with him honestly, city is going to have a tough time in this storm to get snow to accumulate. Going to be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Neither the GFS nor the EC is all snow for PHL. Despite what various internet website maps might have you believe, buying either the GFS or the EC would have significantly lesser snowfall amounts than the 10" that QPF would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ray if we can get 2-3" of snow from heavy rates in the city do you think the roads would be an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Anytime you get snowfall rates of an inch or more and hour roads will be a problem doesnt matter how warm it was or how much salt was put down ive seen it plenty of times up here Ray if we can get 2-3" of snow from heavy rates in the city do you think the roads would be an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 6z NAM looks pretty shaweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM is perfect scenario for snow for the city IMO, too bad it is still out of its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ray if we can get 2-3" of snow from heavy rates in the city do you think the roads would be an issue? Wednesday is the second busiest travel day of the year. Even if it rained, roads would be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wednesday is the second busiest travel day of the year. Even if it's sunny, roads would be an issue Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NWS Mt Holly latest... .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STILL FOCUSED ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING TIME FRAME AND THE POTENTIAL WINTRY IMPACTS TO THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW, COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE FURTHEST WEST AND LEAST PROGRESSIVE, WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND, AT LEAST FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW. BY 00Z THURSDAY...THE DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS ONLY ABOUT 150 MILES. THE ONE PUZZLING THING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS THAT THE GFS CAME IN CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS, ODD GIVEN ITS TRACK OF THE LOW. AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM ALL INDICATE EITHER RAIN, RAIN/SNOW, OR SNOW (ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THESE TRANSITIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS...SEE BELOW). THUS, AT THIS POINT DON/T HAVE ANY CONCERNS FOR FREEZING PRECIP OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. LETS TALK TURKEY....FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, STILL EXPECT A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT ROUGHLY AROUND THE I 95 CORRIDOR. NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE COULD SEE AMOUNTS FROM 2 UP TO 8 INCHES (THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW NJ AND THE POCONOS). EAST OF THE FALL LINE COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURE STILL IN THE 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE EVENT. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE, AND WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD OUTLIER OF THE GFS, THERE IS POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS ISSUE, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. Basically snow amounts are still up in the air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAN looks decent....rain to slop to accumulating snow for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 To be honest, I like how we're seeing a return to the traditional setup where the piedmont sees the most snow. It's been very odd how the coastal plain has been cashing in these past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAN looks decent....rain to slop to accumulating snow for most. NAM pretty much all snow for me based on Plymouth Skew-T. No warm layers aloft, just the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Saw that. Im right on the edge....rain to start here then quickly to frozen. Im thinking 2-5" for our general area seems like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Saw that. Im right on the edge....rain to start here then quickly to frozen. Im thinking 2-5" for our general area seems like a good bet. I think that is a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Haz, I am thinking 3"-5" for right now. I am worried about surface temps, plus treatments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Haz, I am thinking 3"-5" for right now. I am worried about surface temps, plus treatments. Yes, surface is REALLY toasty. I can see a lot of this falling as snow and melting on contact. We really need pretty heavy rates with surface temps 34-35. If most of the event was over night, I think we'd be looking at 6", but now thinking MT. Holly current call looks good (perhaps slightly more just north of fall line). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yes, surface is REALLY toasty. I can see a lot of this falling as snow and melting on contact. We really need pretty heavy rates with surface temps 34-35. If most of the event was over night, I think we'd be looking at 6", but now thinking MT. Holly current call looks good (perhaps slightly more just north of fall line).What is mount holly's call? Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What is mount holly's call? Map? 1-2/2-4 for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 right on the edge 4-6. elevation should help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Of course, we could see those surface temps fall more quickly then modeled (wouldn't be the first time that happened in an event like this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thats true as well. I hope evap cooling occurs. Regardless, I will be on the medic during day, fire house at night lol. Great times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Liking the current 12z gfs for NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Liking the current 12z gfs for NW burbs Upper elevations of SEPA looking decent for mostly snow, good chance now at 4-8" and finally breaking my November 4" high snow mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 PGFS has caught up and now in line with 0z ECM. GGEM too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 PGFS has caught up and now in line with 0z ECM. GGEM too PGFS nails I-95 pretty good. Best case scenario for that area. Such a thread the needle situation for CNJ; too far west and the precip is mostly rain, too far east and we miss out on the best dynamics resulting in light snow that has trouble accumulating, not even sure what to root for at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 45% chance for 8"? I'll take my chances lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sorry for the MBY question but I'm going to ask anyways I'm driving into Phil for the parade on Wed. What time do you think it starts there and do you think it will start as rain and change to snow about what time. And what do you think amounts will be? 45% chance for 8"? I'll take my chances lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My personal guess based on all the data is Light rain starts in the city pre-dawn like 3-5am, probably some sleet/snow/rain mix at 7am-8am, but the city goes over to mostly rain through rest of day with sleet/snow mixed in at times... I think Philly sees <1" of snow, I am not feeling good about this event... However, 15-20 miles N and W? Could be a nice wet snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My personal guess based on all the data is Light rain starts in the city pre-dawn like 3-5am, probably some sleet/snow/rain mix at 7am-8am, but the city goes over to mostly rain through rest of day with sleet/snow mixed in at times... I think Philly sees <1" of snow, I am not feeling good about this event... However, 15-20 miles N and W? Could be a nice wet snowstorm. Feeling about the same way you are for the I95 corridor. However about 25 miles N and W will be a completely different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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