DarthDoppler Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice to see an early season threat showing up. My guess is this will be a classic I95 r/s line setup with significant snowfall just to the West of that line. 12z runs should be interesting....lets hope (for us close to 95) that this thing doesn't start getting tucked in tighter to the coast on subsequent runs. This time of year that "classic" setup is more like Blue Mountain. (just north of the Lehigh Valley) We usually end up with a few inches of slop while the mountains get the big accumulations. That warm ocean hurts us over here also. I've never actually seen a big November snow here.........October has had 2 larger snows lol. (14" in 2011, and about 7-8" of super sloppy snow a few years prior) Largest I've seen here is about 5" in November. (1989) EDIT: Just noticed Chesco's post, which is right in line with my "few inches" prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 One thing I'm slightly worried about for the NWS, is this is kind of sneaking up on people. I spoke to some people yesterday at my job & some customers, told them to watch out for snow on Wed and they laughed at me saying it is going to be in the 70s this week...I hope people plan ahead with travel, especially in the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS is toasty for the big cities. We will have to see what the euro does but I am assuming we can push THE r/s line about 35 miles n and of i95 based on whAt the gfs spit out verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ending as some snow in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS is toasty for the big cities. We will have to see what the euro does but I am assuming we can push THE r/s line about 35 miles n and of i95 based on whAt the gfs spit out verbatim GFS is a wet snow bomb for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS is toasty for the big cities. We will have to see what the euro does but I am assuming we can push THE r/s line about 35 miles n and of i95 based on whAt the gfs spit out verbatim it depends on what site you use, but stormvista (which is usually conservative) has around 6" for the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Using ncep...tough to make out as always. Clearly begins as rain then transitions to snow as system deepens. Gonna be a close call. Im about 15 miles n and w of 95 and sweating this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS is a wet snow bomb for the coastBl...period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Bl...period 700 - 850 - 925 temps never go above freezing for the city on the GFS. There's some warm layers in there, but this is snow IMO. Need a pro to analyze it for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 12 Z GFS was decent for many people in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 700mb is def colder than -4 as well (a good standard for snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Last two runs of the GFS now with the classic I95 rain/snowfall line. Ok im in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's GON SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Like the suppressed look of the GGEM, PARA and most other modeling lends me to thinking the ECM/GFS won't come further west which would lead to a big rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Like the suppressed look of the GGEM, PARA and most other modeling lends me to thinking the ECM/GFS won't come further west which would lead to a big rainer. I wonder if the PARA, NAM and a few others are keying in more on a baroclinic zone off the coast. I remember a storm last winter where the NAM was showing a further east solution which no one could understand given the H5 setup, but the globals eventually did follow the NAM although not as drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z gfs is mainly snow at phl with warmest layer near the surface. Getting close though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mike masco out of Baltimore is saying a positive tilt here is gonna lead to this storm going well east of what's being modeled Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mike masco out of Baltimore is saying a positive tilt here is gonna lead to this storm going well east of what's being modeled Sent from my iPad Sorry but this is not a positively tilted trof: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 EURO trended stronger and NW....against other guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro went west.. got to stop the west trend if we want snow. But then we always have to get the right track for snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Doctor No likely onto something with the blocking out in the Atlantic...cant really go too far East imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Doctor No likely onto something with the blocking out in the Atlantic...cant really go too far East imo Actually agree with ya, but plenty of time for it to come a few ticks E, but I def think EURO is probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does anyone have the euro soundings for phl, abe, and the poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Despite the ECM nudge west wunderground maps still present an extremely heavy snowfall for I95 corridor to central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Despite the ECM nudge west wunderground maps still present an extremely heavy snowfall for I95 corridor to central Jersey. pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 pic? Wunderground site has them but it's slower than an old turtle to load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Despite the ECM nudge west wunderground maps still present an extremely heavy snowfall for I95 corridor to central Jersey. Heavy wet snow paste bomb. Tough forecast. Need strongs dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 EURO verbatim is too warm for the city IMO. There's a few warm layers in there that would probably make this more rain and sleet around the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 NWS Mt. Holly Briefing released at 3PM today. PDF attached. Thanksgiving Storm Breifing 2014.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I would take that forecast. Cabin bound for the holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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