Violentweatherfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I am asking as in what do you mean by you only remember once? Once when? November? If so, it is late November. It has happened before (see link although not same setup). If banding sets up areas will cool rapidly at surface. Models have hard time picking this up. Everything above 1000mb is below freezing. Not saying this will be a high accumulation event in extreme SEPA, but to dismiss it completely makes little sense. JMO http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2007/11/november-1953-snowstorm.html?m=1 It was before Thanksgiving, I'm thinking '77/78 maybe. I remember playing street hockey in it and realizing it wasn't meteorological winter yet, great times had. Yeah banding can set up and you're right it's hard to forecast however for me personally I'm not getting excited about this for any accumulating snow due to it being early in the season. Thanks for the link, nice read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Man it's pretty warm out still. 6"+ in the forcast. I'll believe it when I see it. Unless it pours snow much will melt on contact especially roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hopefully early dementia not setting in.... NOV 1995 - 3" NOV 1989 - 5" 95 sucked, '89 don't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 95 sucked, '89 don't remember. 89 it was brutally cold I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Man it's pretty warm out still. 6"+ in the forcast. I'll believe it when I see it. Unless it pours snow much will melt on contact especially roadways. Temp really hasn't moved since 7am this morning....stuck in the 52-53 range. Not sure if it matters but it's been overcast all day so no sun has been cooking the black asphalt...maybe kept it a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 95 sucked, '89 don't remember. 3" of snow followed by a mid 30's / low 20's day in NOV sucks - snow wasn't white enough for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 89 it was brutally cold I believe88-89 was pretty darn cold early but got mild late Dec. thru March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 it appears that ABC6 and NBC10 will have very different snow predictions based on their intros at 4pm... 6 has it changing to snow by evening in the city whereas 10 has it switching over by noon... will be interesting to see how this works out and what their accum projections will be!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I see two positives on the storm. It will start as rain then maybe change to snow instead of visa versa and a good part of it will be during daylight. An ideal snowstorm for me would be if it started at around 7 am and snowed hard until about 6 pm. Then all of the roads and my driveway would be snow free the next morning. I know, keep dreaming. As a side note, the New York Metro subforum has become unbearable again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 YES... per my prior post... Hurricane has me in 5-8" and city 3-5" with snow by 10 am there!! 6 has me and city as 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 it appears that ABC6 and NBC10 will have very different snow predictions based on their intros at 4pm... 6 has it changing to snow by evening in the city whereas 10 has it switching over by noon... will be interesting to see how this works out and what their accum projections will be!!! Well, here's Glenn's map at 4:25pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 YES... per my prior post... Hurricane has me in 5-8" and city 3-5" with snow by 10 am there!! 6 has me and city as 1-3" Yeah, the line dividing the 1" to 3" area from the 3" to 6" area on Channel 6's forecast puts only the NW third of Bucks and Montgomery Counties and far northern Chester county in 3" to 6". That's about 20 miles NW of where I'd place it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'll just be happy if we turn over to heavy snow for an hour or so in NE Philly...I am highly doubting more than an inch accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'll just be happy if we turn over to heavy snow for an hour or so in NE Philly...I am highly doubting more than an inch accumulation. You're full of shiet...you want more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If I am 6ABC I am praying the RGEM is wrong...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The warm 18Z GFS worries me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wow, first time I've seen this....6abc quite a bit different from Glenn (NBC10): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 CBS3: I would go w/this out of the 3 local networks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You're full of shiet...you want more! haha you know me too well, of COURSE I want more, but honestly all we have on our side is the RGEM...As much as I respect Glenn I don't think Philly has a chance in hell to hit 3" but there's a reason he's on TV and not me lol... I think 6 ABC's forecast is spot on.... Looking at the RGEM might get you excited, but remember even if .8" of snow fell we have TERRIBLE ratios, plus we'd waste a lot to non-accumulating snow, so .8" QPF as snow would probably still translate to 1-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 haha you know me too well, of COURSE I want more, but honestly all we have on our side is the RGEM...As much as I respect Glenn I don't think Philly has a chance in hell to hit 3" but there's a reason he's on TV and not me lol... I think 6 ABC's forecast is spot on.... Looking at the RGEM might get you excited, but remember even if .8" of snow fell we have TERRIBLE ratios, plus we'd waste a lot to non-accumulating snow, so .8" QPF as snow would probably still translate to 1-4" It all depends on the changeover time. A 2 hour difference either way will screw up the totals if under heavy precip. Gotta watch temps/DP tonight...down to 47.1 from 53F.. 2 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 down to 45.1 right now in west chester pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It all depends on the changeover time. A 2 hour difference either way will screw up the totals if under heavy precip. Gotta watch temps/DP tonight...down to 47.1 from 53F.. 2 hours ago. Temps dropping at a pretty good rate...45.8 now from 47.1.. 20 minutes ago. DP34F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That is a thing of beauty. Sitting pretty at -5 in Mercer county. Doesn't matter that much when its 0 at 925 and +1 at 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Last best guess Berks, Lehigh 7-10" 5-7" Upper Bucks, Montco, West Chester 3-5" Central regions 2-4" Southeast regions Philly 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Doesn't matter that much when its 0 at 925 and +1 at 1000. ah I didn't see that... Really tight forecast for just east of TTN (5 miles). I'm expecting 2-4". What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ah I didn't see that... Really tight forecast for just east of TTN (5 miles). I'm expecting 2-4". What are your thoughts? That's in the ballpark. I like Mt. Holly's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah I like their map too. Although I think they could have went a bit higher in Montgomery county and I would have made the higher totals have a more east to west orientation rather than north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Media Delaware County in my back yard 43 dew point 32 let the tracking the rain snow line game begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I've been outside blowing leaves (prepping the lawn, just in case you know), and one thing I was happy to notice is stars and the moon - radiational cooling! I'm sure it will cloud up at any time, but here I'll take all the help I can get. 43F currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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