Animal Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Storm threat is legit. As I will be in the Philly area, let do it!. Yes, it can all go up in smoke.... Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I was originally thinking this was going to be a scraper with only the shore points seeing appreciable precip. After watching the model runs today and accounting for the 12z EURO bomb and the improvements on the GFS aloft, and good signs from the ensembles, I think its safe to say that we will have a fairly strong system that will throw significant precip back all the way into the interior. Once the we get better sampling when this wave makes it on shore, we should be able to pinpoint who's going to see the accumulating snow. I think right now we have 2 scenarios on the table: 1) amped with significant snow in the interior and a mix along I-95 and rain for the coast. 2) A swing and a miss as the system phases to late and the shore points see some flurries as the storm pulls away. At this point I think it's more likely that we will see scenario 1 happen. Still a lot of time on this one. I think it's crazy for anyone to be pinpointing a predominant rain/snow line at this point, especially with a marginal air mass and lack of blocking. Trends are certainly looking positive at this point, however I would keep expectations for a significant snowfall very low at this point as both climatology and the pattern do not support a significant snow storm for I-95, however the snowier solution as advertised by the 12z EURO and the EURO ensembles is certainly on the table and has been gaining support from the other models. Having said that, I would say that minor snow accumulations are looking increasingly likely for I-95 north and west. After all it is only November and it is just exciting to have something to track and I would be thrilled to see a few inches fall for Thanksgiving. Should be a fun one to track guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If it's 2-3" accumulating only on the grass I'll be happy. I'm not a fan of having a significant snowstorm on Thanksgiving as it will disrupt travel (and the black friday retail economy) too much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hey, its exciting and the storm risk is confirmed. Time will tell the outcome. recent model runs look positive. Yea the GFS is the GFS, 1st legit winter storm threat for the area is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 of course it will snow because I am on call for thanksgiving this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looking forward to a coastal. Maybe surf wed pm and turkey day morning if my back is better. Damn 40s! Hopefully us coastal dwellers see flakes before it pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looking forward to a coastal. Maybe surf wed pm and turkey day morning if my back is better. Damn 40s! Hopefully us coastal dwellers see flakes before it pulls away. Not sure if you're referring to temps or age, lol. Hope you see some snow too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not sure if you're referring to temps or age, lol. Hope you see some snow too! Think he meant age since we're in the same boat/age. Not horrible but just bought a new mattress and feeling better already before any major problems start. Anyhow, let's go winter weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 00z GFS snow Dark green is 2-3" whitle light blue is 3" + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The consistency of the Euro has been tremendous, and while all the 'math' adds up - I'm watching the trend (as is everyone else) - I suspect tomorrow will be quite telling, but my gut tells me the euro will begin/continue to trend slightly weaker and a touch warmer. Which isn't necessarily bad for snow lovers in this instance. It's early yet, and I'm growing confident a majority of us will see some white flying through the air, and even laying on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 0z ECM says if you liked your 12z snowmap, you can keep your snowmap...still a turkey bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 In the mid atlantic board someone posted a snowmap from I guess the Euro that shows ridiculously high snow totals for PHL and DC... Surely the surface temps will be too high for totals like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 In the mid atlantic board someone posted a snowmap from I guess the Euro that shows ridiculously high snow totals for PHL and DC... Surely the surface temps will be too high for totals like that... The assumption with these is that the ground will support what falls when we're this far out. Precip maps are reflecting almost exactly what snow depth maps are showing. Temps on Tuesday don't seem to warrant that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 In the mid atlantic board someone posted a snowmap from I guess the Euro that shows ridiculously high snow totals for PHL and DC... Surely the surface temps will be too high for totals like that... It's the Bastardi weenie=mc squared equation that makes for the pretty colors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's the Bastardi weenie=mc squared equation that makes for the pretty colors It's always amazed me how many different ways hard scientific data can be twisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The assumption with these is that the ground will support what falls when we're this far out. Precip maps are reflecting almost exactly what snow depth maps are showing. Temps on Tuesday don't seem to warrant that. Also the forecast high for Monday for where I am at least is 72... There doesn't seem to be enough time to cool the ground (at least the paved areas) to support snow accumulating at any reasonable rate. Again I'm still hoping for a small accumulation if any that doesn't disrupt travel or business on Thanksgiving in the Philly area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's always amazed me how many different ways hard scientific data can be twisted. and those maps get loose in social media and create quite a hype storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 and those maps get loose in social media and create quite a hype storm. In reality, a real possibility of more than 2" falling from the sky (even if very little of it were to stick) is hype worthy because of the time of year. Any other time, I'd be pretty upset that these are going to hit facebook/twitter - but this is one of the largest travel days of the year. It could serve as a solid warning, but could also put a lot of distrust in any future model runs because so many will see it/pay heed to it. (a little OT, but it's slow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Wunderground maps just as gung ho with excess of 12" in SEPA. 12z runs will be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 DT on his facebook says according to the euro it's going to be mainly rain ending as snow for DC/Philly/NYC with a big hit further inland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 DT on his facebook says according to the euro it's going to be mainly rain ending as snow for DC/Philly/NYC with a big hit further inland.... ECM's own algorithm map posted in NYC thread much lower snow totals due to mixing and warm layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 ECM's own algorithm map posted in NYC thread much lower snow totals due to mixing and warm layers. I'd be more inclined to go with that over WxBell and Wunderground, although both of these can serve quite well in winter with sub 40 ground temps, all bets are off in November after a 70 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Also the forecast high for Monday for where I am at least is 72... There doesn't seem to be enough time to cool the ground (at least the paved areas) to support snow accumulating at any reasonable rate. This line of thinking is flawed. I've seen this change happen within 24 hrs. In April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This line of thinking is flawed. I've seen this change happen within 24 hrs. In April. Granted the temp drop was MUCH sharper, but I remember a rather warm mid winter rainstorm quite a few winters back that featured 60+ temps even up here in Tamaqua. I remember it so well (the event, but not the year) because I drove my wife to work that morning. When we left the house at 7:15am, it was raining and 62 degrees. We drove to Palmerton, where she worked, and the cold air was moving in faster than we drove as the rain started mixing with snow as I was dropping her off. Temp was down into the low 40's by that point. I returned to Tamaqua two hours later, and by the time I got home, the temps had crashed into the 20's and I was in an all snow event, which was already sticking to paved surfaces. We ended up with a back end 2-3 inch "thump" and it did accumulate on roads and sidewalks despite the warm temps from a few hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 06z gfs is almost perfect for i95. Euro favors inland areas but need soundings for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice to see an early season threat showing up. My guess is this will be a classic I95 r/s line setup with significant snowfall just to the West of that line. 12z runs should be interesting....lets hope (for us close to 95) that this thing doesn't start getting tucked in tighter to the coast on subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Reading Mt. Holly's forecast discussion this morning has tempered my expectations a bit. Could be a classic late November near miss for many of us. Or maybe not. Still time for things to evolve. One thing, if it snows, and hard enough, I'm not at all worried about ground temps and stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Reading Mt. Holly's forecast discussion this morning has tempered my expectations a bit. Could be a classic late November near miss for many of us. Or maybe not. Still time for things to evolve. One thing, if it snows, and hard enough, I'm not at all worried about ground temps and stickage. Check their Facebook post from just over an hour ago. It read a bit differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Check their Facebook post from just over an hour ago. It read a bit differently. Read it, thanks. Made me smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco has Light IP/snow mix arriving around 7am temp 35.2 Mixed Snow/Rain most of midday with temps around 34 Transitioning to mainly snow and becoming heavy by late afternoon with between 3" to 5" of snow before ending by 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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