POWERSTROKE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 In all seriousness , he's a great met, but I have been burned by his dynamical cooling quite a few times the last couple of years. He would say snow, it wouldn't happen He just updated website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 He just updated website Interesting he still thinks there is room for a more westward correction.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 He just updated website Its a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its a good one Indeed. So. Many. Variables. Interesting that he still feels upper dynamics and cooling are the elixir for us around Crown Town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 its clear the highest qpf is over eastern nc and start dropping sharply as you head west.....i think our only chance at flakes on this side of nc is when the low is pulling away......still alot of time to play out..... could the last minute east trend commence like last year who knows... nice way to start of winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Indeed. So. Many. Variables. Interesting that he still feels upper dynamics and cooling are the elixir for us around Crown Town. fwiw the 18z nam had more cooling than the 12z. the cooling only brought the 0c line from 875mb to 900mb at Charlotte. Might see a few flakes survive the melting, but that's it for Charlotte. Don't see how the NAM can be off by 2000+ft this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I have a 7 and 3 year niece/nephew visiting from FL, would love a few flakes for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sref looks west and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sref looks west and wet. Yep, looks a little warmer also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Ens mean improved a great deal from 12z to 18z... The snow stops right at the Wake County line. Too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM is digging the s/w further southwest. I have a feeling this run is going to do the typical NAM and go bonkers on QPF for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM is digging the s/w further southwest. I have a feeling this run is going to do the typical NAM and go bonkers on QPF for the SE. Hey Burger how are ya man? Was just about to comment on this. Do we want the southern vort to maintain dominance and have the northern vort more weak or vice versa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hey Burger how are ya man? Was just about to comment on this. Do we want the southern vort to maintain dominance and have the northern vort more weak or vice versa? Think we want the southern vort to juice up and dig as much as it can...then have the northern vort to swing in on the backside, if it could phase at the last minute it should help really blow up that low and force heavy rates so we get some cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well, I have made my first post regarding this chance of snow and rain with this upcoming storm system the day before Thanksgiving. Here is the link to the forecast: http://wxjordan.com/weather-forecast/forecast/94-storm-brings-rain-snow-chance-to-southeast-united-states This graphic shows my current thinking.... Dynamical cooling is going to be needed for areas north and west of I-85 to receive snow from this system. We will need good rates and a lot of moisture to overcome temperatures that are too warm for snow in normal situations. I am keeping accumulations limited to the mountains at the moment. This is the safe approach as I am not sure if temperatures will decrease enough for accumulations outside the mountains. Model trends on Monday and Tuesday will provide more insight into what will occur with this system. Models are also showing this being a relatively quickly event, only lasting 12 hours for areas outside the mountains. Of course, areas in the mountains will see a higher chance of elevated accumulations. Any time you have this sharp of a 500 mb trough, wild and unorthodox things can happen. It may be Tuesday before I have a good handle of the evolution of this storm system outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 @48 that vort in the gulf is starting to move and looks like it's taking more of a neutral tilt. Moisture incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That northern energy is coming in fast behind it...might be able to start to phase to help turn this more towards a negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You can actually see a small pocket of <0C 850s down in southern AL and into the Gulf at hr 51. Interesting. Looks colder across NC at hr 57, though the precip is taking longer to reach here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 850's def. colder on this run in GA. Moisture is lighter but think it's about to blow up in the next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 850's def. colder on this run in GA. Moisture is lighter but think it's about to blow up in the next few frames. Eh idk if i'm liking the evolution of the moisture output however the 5h is very nice looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 lol CLT might be the winner on this one @63 it gets hot and heavy right over MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Eh idk if i'm liking the evolution of the moisture output however the 5h is very nice looking Ends up being wetter overall for NC/VA though not as wet in the eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 lol CLT might be the winner on this one @63 it gets hot and heavy right over MBY. Yeah, the heaviest precip axis pretty much nails the I-85 corridor. 850s are well cool enough, though I'm not sure about surface temperatures. Over 1" of QPF and still going at hr 69. The storm skirts DCA and kind of screws them, so it's a lot different than the Euro. Is the NAM leading the way or is it being the NAM? Tune in later tonight to find out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ends up being wetter overall for NC/VA though not as wet in the eastern sections. I think my problem is im being spoiled by the setups of the GFS and EURO lol. The NAM is still playing catchup imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think my problem is im being spoiled by the setups of the GFS and EURO lol. The NAM is still playing catchup imho. The good news is it's the NAM past 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hi-Res NAM looks really good out to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Brad P just released a video on his thoughts concerning the upcoming storm. He's quite bearish for anywhere east of the mountains, but he kind of has to be with the large exposure he gets, especially after repeatedly cautioning people about "reckless posting on social media". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The trailing S/W drops more snow here at the end of the run, LOL. Also into S VA. Perhaps something to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Brad P just released a video on his thoughts concerning the upcoming storm. He's quite bearish for anywhere east of the mountains, but he kind of has to be with the large exposure he gets, especially after repeatedly cautioning people about "reckless posting on social media". When it's your job you can't be as wishful for the "maybes" and "could be". I see all of his points. As Robert said for anyone east of the mountains it's going to be all about the things models have the hardest time picking up. I want to see the clown maps from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Does the NAM have a tendency to be biased towards higher surface temperatures? I'm just having a hard time seeing below freezing mid-level temperatures with heavy precip not cool the surface below 40. It's not like it's April with a fiery sun angle cooking the surface or something. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 When it's your job you can't be as wishful for the "maybes" and "could be". I see all of his points. As Robert said for anyone east of the mountains it's going to be all about the things models have the hardest time picking up. I want to see the clown maps from the NAM. Not much to see. NAM shows maybe an inch or less from DC south through the western Carolina's. Some parts of the NC/VA border maybe 2", but there's nothing much to measure elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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