Wow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS looks much better. It is so close to a phase with that northern energy. More negatively so a lot wetter for WNC. Thickness still isn't there but if you got 850's right with that much moisture it might do it. 18z GFS...IMBY sounding at 66 .. gotta work more on the low level temps. Would be tough to overcome that. I'm at 850 ft or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Above 900mb it's cold enough... that's around 3000-3500 ft above sea level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS still does not deliver enough at the boundary layer for folks in the North Carolina foothills...I would like to see those temps lower just a bit more before getting my hopes up http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h66&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS...IMBY sounding at 66 .. gotta work more on the low level temps. Would be tough to overcome that. I'm at 850 ft or so. 18z GFS...IMBY sounding at 66 .. gotta work more on the low level temps. Would be tough to overcome that. I'm at 850 ft or so. Yea looking closer even the usually wonky clown maps of the GFS have nothing outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yea looking closer even the usually wonky clown maps of the GFS have nothing outside of the mountains. They are big for 85 west on WB and AMWx page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 QPF from this is now in the 0.50-0.75" for especially S & E ATL burbs. That has been increasing overall from what I can see. That's pretty significant and is a reason to watch the low level temp.'s carefully. However, I'm still going with a T of SN at KATL as my early guess fwiw due to the lack of a solid Arctic high to the N and W. We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yea looking closer even the usually wonky clown maps of the GFS have nothing outside of the mountains. Model Center map did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Model Center map did My SV maps are stingy as hell. Instant weather maps also didn't have much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm about to give up on this one. Just going to be a few degrees too warm in my area. Mountains should cash in though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I will be going to the tennessee mountains for thanksgiving. Hoping to catch some snow on the way!! I wouldn't give up yet. With a shallow warm layer heavy rates could erode a good bit of it. I wouldn't be surprised if at least some heavy wet flakes reach to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Model Center map did I am interested in the things you say and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW, the WeatherBell GFS clown (which usually isn't that awful) has 2"+ from around Burlington on down to just NW of Charlotte and N/W from there. No one gets >6". Surface temperatures actually don't look that bad. Mid-30s are workable. I still remember last years (mid-Feb) coastal, the Euro had it tracking way inland at this range, even at 36 hours out it had it tracking just west of New Bern and it end up tracking just over HAT. I remember, we got into a huge debate about whether is to strong/west with coastals inside 72 hours. I think you guys have a chance at this ticking east enough and getting enough cooling with heavy rates to have some accumulating snow on trees/grass. The models are spitting out sick precip. This is at the heart of the precip, this shifts east a hair and Euro is 1-2F off it's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This looks reasonable to me for precip type, for the 18z GFS...basically, a wet snow event in the mtns. Sfc temps hang in the 32-34 range through the day Wed for much of the mtns. Close call in areas of foothills and piedmont. 850mb low runs from just southeast of Columbia to just southeast of Raleigh, a very good track for the NC mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 850mb low at 10AM on Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Places like Rutherfordon(hello Mark), it is really really close. I could see places like South Mountain State Park and Casar cleaning up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Going to be slick thursday morning which is good to me. I would imagine an advisory at the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 QPF from this is now in the 0.50-0.75" for especially S & E ATL burbs. That has been increasing overall from what I can see. That's pretty significant and is a reason to watch the low level temp.'s carefully. However, I'm still going with a T of SN at KATL as my early guess fwiw due to the lack of a solid Arctic high to the N and W. We'll see! ground temps would also be a big issue I would imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 850mb low at 10AM on Wed Looks like it tracks from Florence to Goldsboro, its a great track for 85 and points NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The Ens mean improved a great deal from 12z to 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Damn, that's a big hit with the GEFS mean, Pack. 4-5" as a mean for the I-85 corridor is a big deal at this range. I'm guessing the GEFS mean SLP track is a little east of the operational with the lower totals in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Robert is still all in for central NC/VA. He's banking on dynamical surprises...Robert vs the online weather world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just looked at a few skew-t charts for NW ATL. Below 850 is a complete mess. I think unless we can get the cold a bit deeper it's going to be a case of snow at about 2500-3000 feet plus. Brasstown Bald is probably going to get whacked pretty good leaving the low landers in a rain. JMO as it sits now. It wouldn't take a lot more cold to cause a pretty scene in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Robert is still all in for central NC/VA. He's banking on dynamical surprises...Robert vs the online weather world. Gonna be interesting on Roberts paid version. He's honking surprises etc. He's updating soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I still remember last years (mid-Feb) coastal, the Euro had it tracking way inland at this range, even at 36 hours out it had it tracking just west of New Bern and it end up tracking just over HAT. I remember, we got into a huge debate about whether is to strong/west with coastals inside 72 hours. I think you guys have a chance at this ticking east enough and getting enough cooling with heavy rates to have some accumulating snow on trees/grass. The models are spitting out sick precip. This is at the heart of the precip, this shifts east a hair and Euro is 1-2F off it's a different story. Robert may be on to something there... you can definitely see it picking up the dynamic cooling over the W Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Robert may be on to something there... you can definitely see it picking up the dynamic cooling over the W Piedmont. Been talking a lot about that November 2000 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Robert is still all in for central NC/VA. He's banking on dynamical surprises...Robert vs the online weather world. In all seriousness , he's a great met, but I have been burned by his dynamical cooling quite a few times the last couple of years. He would say snow, it wouldn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Damn, that's a big hit with the GEFS mean, Pack. 4-5" as a mean for the I-85 corridor is a big deal at this range. I'm guessing the GEFS mean SLP track is a little east of the operational with the lower totals in the mountains. Lots of agreement with the Op, a few that are a tick west, several east that hit central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Places like Rutherfordon(hello Mark), it is really really close. I could see places like South Mountain State Park and Casar cleaning up. One could only hope Jeremy. In most cases, like this, Rutherford gets split in half. The lowest layer always has a tough time getting to the magic number. And this is always the case in this type of set-up in my area ( eastern- central Rutherford right at 978'). But I could also see places like Hollis, sunshine, polkville on up towards south mountain on hwy 10 cashing in. I try to live by the 12 hour rule when it come to excitement these days;) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS Para finally came on board for the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS Para finally came on board for the 18z run. It still looks like an eastern outlier, though. Precip doesn't even really make it to I-85. Either the GFS Parallel is a genius model or it needs more work before they release it because it's had some troubles so far this winter, it seems. The 850 mb 0C isotherm runs from RDU to Rockingham during the height of precip, though the surface is baking in the low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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