oconeexman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think our best hope is that none of the hi-res models are showing the storm yet; thus we don't have any hi-res thermal data to look at in the boundary layer. I know with the last snow event, none of the global models were showing snow in SC, yet the the hi-res model's were all over it. So in summary we need the short range model's to: 1. Actually develop the storm and 2. Show colder boundary layer temps under the best lift/precip rates. Couldn't agree more! Hopefully no skipping the lee side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just finally got around to looking at the 12z NAM. I know it's way out of its useful range, but talk about a different solution. No precip makes it west of Greenville, NC or so. Interesting to have an outlier like that. FWIW, the UKMET looks in fairly good agreement with the Euro and GFS, though maybe a little warmer (from what I can tell from the limited maps available). Jonathan, interesting. It will be interesting to see if the Euro Ensembles are as far west as the operational later on this afternoon. Parallel GFS matches the NAM and partially the CMC. So it's really Euro/OpGFS/UKMET vs. NAM/CMC/ParaGFS. I've seen enough of these things look really big at this range, and then have the phase fail to materialize as such as we get closer and the weaker track ends up working out. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does anyone know or have access to Omega maps from the Euro? I'm not sure if it's a parameter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The 15z SREF mean looks pretty sweet, from what I can tell. The mean has 1" QPF stretching back to I-85 with <0C 850 temperatures from I-85/west and the 0C line moves east as the storm draws on. Not sure about BL temperatures. I know the plumes from the 09z run showed ~2" for GSO/CLT/RDU. 15z plumes are out and the mean for gso is 3.08 with three members over 10 inches. It sounds encouraging, but I have Zero faith in the SREF based on past experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 15z plumes are out and the mean for gso is 3.08 with three members over 10 inches. It sounds encouraging, but I have Zero faith in the SREF based on past experience. Haha, you and me both, man! Still, looks like the mean doubled from 09z, so I'll take it! IIRC, it actually nailed our totals with the February 2014 Big Dog, but other than that, it's been off a lot. BTW, the 12z Euro Ensemble Mean is east of the Operational. The SLP track is offshore of Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Haha, you and me both, man! Still, looks like the mean doubled from 09z, so I'll take it! IIRC, it actually nailed our totals with the February 2014 Big Dog, but other than that, it's been off a lot. BTW, the 12z Euro Ensemble Mean is east of the Operational. The SLP track is offshore of Cape Hatteras. But when looking at the members it seems the majority is inland, surprised the mean isn't more west. The mean itself is a perfect track for you guys and normally for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Haha, you and me both, man! Still, looks like the mean doubled from 09z, so I'll take it! IIRC, it actually nailed our totals with the February 2014 Big Dog, but other than that, it's been off a lot. BTW, the 12z Euro Ensemble Mean is east of the Operational. The SLP track is offshore of Cape Hatteras. Same here WRT the SREF plumes for the Feb storm. Hatteras, you say? You and I may not be outta this one yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 But when looking at the members it seems the majority is inland, surprised the mean isn't more west. The mean itself is a perfect track for you guys and normally for us. Yeah, and looking at the ensemble member snowfall output, it doesn't look very good outside of the mountains for the most part, either. Oh, well, here's to hoping the Euro has ticked too far west. Maybe the NAM will throw us a bone in a few minutes. It actually looks like the NAM might be setting up for something here... at least more than its shown so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, and looking at the ensemble member snowfall output, it doesn't look very good outside of the mountains for the most part, either. Oh, well, here's to hoping the Euro has ticked too far west. Maybe the NAM will throw us a bone in a few minutes. It's a good thing this is happening in Nov and not mid-Jan, this would be a real bummer to miss out on a storm like this in the middle of winter. Probably best this get's west to hit the mountains hard since they have the best shot in Nov. Edit: But I wouldn't be shocked to see the Euro Op tick back east 25-50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z NAM picking up on our shortwave coming out of Texas being slower. Probably gonna look a good bit different over the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just don't see this happening for Charlotte. Would be different if there was a ULL. Looks like a typical frontal passage. 12z GFS wxcaster.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, and looking at the ensemble member snowfall output, it doesn't look very good outside of the mountains for the most part, either. Oh, well, here's to hoping the Euro has ticked too far west. Maybe the NAM will throw us a bone in a few minutes. It actually looks like the NAM might be setting up for something here... at least more than its shown so far. Looking at the low level temps for GSO, you are really close with the Euro Op run, your right at 0 for the 850-925 temps, surface 34-35F. Just a small tick east on the Euro Op puts you in the game. Euro is usually 1-2F warm anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Big western shift on the 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 NAM has finally caught a clue. Night and day over 12z NAM. Still too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Big western shift on the 18z nam. Yep. Has precip nearing GSP at 12z Wednesday, whereas the 12z run had precip only on the immediate coast line of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looking at 850s alone, the 18z NAM would be a nice snowstorm for the I-85 corridor. West of there doesn't get enough precip and east of there is too warm. Of course, 2m temperatures are about a thousand degrees, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Western. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looking at 850s alone, the 18z NAM would be a nice snowstorm for the I-85 corridor. West of there doesn't get enough precip and east of there is too warm. 850's are good but thickness says something other than snow would be falling...but it's heavy enough it could overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Going all in on the 18z GFS run, it has the best performance of all the GFS runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 850's are good but thickness says something other than snow would be falling...but it's heavy enough it could overcome that. Yeah, surface temperatures are UGLY. That being said, I don't buy 40F surface temperatures given the setup, though I could easily see white rain with temperatures in the mid-30s. Then again, I'm not a met, so maybe I'm wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hi-Res NAM is pretty durn close to a phase @60 hours. This will be threading the needle for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The 12z JMA looks pretty nice, from the awful maps I can see. Does anyone have access to better than 24 hr panels for it? Not sure if it even matters if the JMA is in our camp, but I'm interested. The 12z NAVGEM is fairly suppressed, as you'd expect. The 12z Parallel GFS is even further east than the NAVGEM, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS looks much better. It is so close to a phase with that northern energy. More negatively so a lot wetter for WNC. Thickness still isn't there but if you got 850's right with that much moisture it might do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Actually ends up being warmer at 850 during the heart of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Strange surge at 850mb between hrs 66-69, then it cools back down again. All in all, it looks pretty similar to the 12z run, IMHO. 850mb 0C isotherm basically straddles I-85 for the majority of the storm. Surface temperatures probably suck, of course. Looks pretty good for 85 west. Thank God I live 4-5 miles west of I-85. Hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This run keeps the moisture hanging around in NC for a good bit with energy swinging down the backside. Could be some interesting clown maps out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks pretty good for 85 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS is very interesting especially for WNC. If this thing phases we might be looking at a blockbuster event for the mountains. It looks like it almost does as the system exits but NWFS will hammer the high elevations regardless. Ski slopes will be cashing in for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW, the WeatherBell GFS clown (which usually isn't that awful) has 2"+ from around Burlington on down to just NW of Charlotte and N/W from there. No one gets >6". Surface temperatures actually don't look that bad. Mid-30s are workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS is very interesting especially for WNC. If this thing phases we might be looking at a blockbuster event for the mountains. It looks like it almost does as the system exits but NWFS will hammer the high elevations regardless. Ski slopes will be cashing in for sure. Little doubt this will be a big hit above 3000ft. Hoping the sfc temps are good enough in the foothills for something to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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