packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro is tucked into the coast, it's rain for DCA, PHL, NYC to BOS. Looks to be an interior snow event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The Doc is interesting, and def. wetter, but as Burger said...looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Good point HKY. The battle is BL and it may be decided based on what happens in the next 24 hours, not 70 hours from now. I can tell you guys in Dec 2009 I saw it pour snow slush and rain all day with brown ground to show for it. Drove 10 Miles nw/west and 4 inches laid on the ground. So be prepared someone from raleigh back to Wilks Boro /hickory is gonna be the unlucky soul and witness the same expierence I had. I could list a few other times of transition type nightmares I've witnessed such as this. Some worked out great others not so. We will be heading 3500 feet up black Friday to make the annual tree cutting family tradition trip. Never walked through the snow to find the ole tree, but odds are this may be the year, so I'm pumped to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What's responsible for the continued western trend on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro clown map gives KAVL 8.3". Would be nice if it was all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro clown map gives KAVL 8.3". Would be nice if it was all snow. Very well could be....given high precip rates and temp profile below zero from 850mb and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What's responsible for the continued western trend on the Euro?Earlier phase and negative tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If that northern energy could speed up and phase we would have a big daddy. Right now there just isn't a phase and it's too warm. On the back end it does cool down and there is a good amount of QPF still left around. Im thinking this could phase. EURO is very close to it. I still think this *could be an I-85 special. Less wintry near GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 uote name="NCSNOW" post="3141782" timestamp="1416766506"]Good point HKY. The battle is BL and it may be decided based on what happens in the next 24 hours, not 70 hours from now. I can tell you guys in Dec 2009 I saw it pour snow slush and rain all day with brown ground to show for it. Drove 10 Miles nw/west and 4 inches laid on the ground. So be prepared someone from raleigh back to Wilks Boro /hickory is gonna be the unlucky soul and witness the same expierence I had. I could list a few other times of transition type nightmares I've witnessed such as this. Some worked out great others not so. We will be heading 3500 feet up black Friday to make the annual tree cutting family tradition trip. Never walked through the snow to find the ole tree, but odds are this may be the year, so I'm pumped to say the least. That system was all about elevation and the BL hurt everyone else. I was in Taylor at the time and got just a few pellets of sleet with temp of 34. Went up Ceasers Head and big snow above about 2500 feet. Below that; nothing. Anytime we are worried about BL elevation is the key. I'll bet this is one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Very well could be....given high precip rates and temp profile below zero from 850mb and up. Yeah the surface temps hoover around 34 when the heaviest precip moves through. Can't wait to see what the ensemble has to say. Fingers crossed ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This run looks like rain ending as snow in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 euro still looks like mostly snow in hickory w/ temps hovering around 34. not really warmer or colder, pretty much the same. this run would crush the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 10 -12 for boone per the euro. crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 #PrayForThePhase Sounds like accumulations could go from significant to nothing in just a matter of miles. At worst, maybe some precip can lag around on the backside for some rain-to-snow action for some. Brandon (or anyone for that matter who wouldn't mind sharing) how does the King look for the GSO-Mt Airy-MTV-DAN corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 #PrayForThePhase Sounds like accumulations could go from significant to nothing in just a matter of miles. At worst, maybe some precip can lag around on the backside for some rain-to-snow action for some. Brandon (or anyone for that matter who wouldn't mind sharing) how does the King look for the GSO-Mt Airy-MTV-DAN corridor? GSO looks too warm this run. The line runs from AVL to HKY to MTV. CLIMO wise this make sense given the SLP track. A degree or two will make a huge difference in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 And here are Robert Gamble's thoughts from Facebook. Much more on his website: After today's model runs, I still see no reason to change my earlier thoughts on the East Coast and Appalachian November snowstorm. European is probably right, and GFS continues shifting toward that. I have a huge breakdown already (twice ) at my site (wxsouth) and I will soon do a snowfall map, breaking down regions. I expect rain to work quickly north through Georgia and SC pre dawn Wednesday, overspreading NC and Virginia through midday Wednesday. It will quickl turn to SNOW in western NC, western and middle, northern Virginia, a very wet, sloppy snow, but pretty as well with big fat flakes. The snow will mostly melt on roadways, because surface temps during the storm will be middle 30s in a lot of places. I expect 33 ° in Charlottesville, Washington DC during the afternoon Height of the snowstorm, so sloppy amounts on roads, but a good deal (Postcard Scenes) on buildings, Bushes, Trees, Grass. Richmond is a close call, around 37 ° possibly going to snow or a mix, but just west of town, mostly turning to snow. Greensboro and Winston Salem, Rain quickly to Snow, around 35° during the day, so mostly just grassy accumulations. Much tougher call in Charlotte to Greenville Spartanburg and Athens Interstate 85 corridor...that area gets the precip first, and begins as rain, but some areas along that region between Raleigh, Charlotte to even Atlanta may have a switch over to snow, or mix at times...Best chances further west of Interstate 77 and north of 85.Mountains..Asheville, Boone, Bluefield, Foothills Hickory, Mt . Airy, Roanoke, Wytheville, Staunton...Mostly all snow, and lots of it. The snow could reach northeast Georgia, but the precip ends pretty quickly there. Still, a nice Thanksgiving Treat is likely to set you in the Christmas Spirit. Will be interesting to see if South Carolina gets two November Snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, this is an ugly run for GSO. It might end as snow, but that's about it. Even the WB clown isn't too kind with a measly mythical 1.2". King would do a little better than GSO or INT, of course, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 And here are Robert Gamble's thoughts from Facebook. Much more on his website: 35F with snow during the day.... The rates better be heavy or it's just going to be Snow TV (taking a page from the Mid-Atlantic subforum) with no accumulation. Of course, I wouldn't complain about Snow TV in November (actually, yes I would, but that's because I'm a weenie). By the way, here is the map he posted a few minutes ago on his Facebook page, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GSO looks too warm this run. The line runs from AVL to HKY to MTV. CLIMO wise this make sense given the SLP track. A degree or two will make a huge difference in this one. I agree I could see Mt Airy getting accumulating snow and GSO just watching some flakes fly to CLT even getting in on it towards the end with a little flake action EDIT: I should have read the whole thread before replying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like my area is going to be a very difficult area to forecast for. Don't coastal storms like this have a tendency to trend cooler as we get closer to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GSO looks too warm this run. The line runs from AVL to HKY to MTV. CLIMO wise this make sense given the SLP track. A degree or two will make a huge difference in this one.Yep, pretty typical indeed. My neighborhood may make out like a bandit as it usually does. I sit at ~1300ft whereas the actual town of Bassett is about 1100ft and MTV around 1000ft.Still plenty of details to be worked out. Earlier phase, dynamical cooling, storm track, etc. The fact that we're following a winter storm period before Thanksgiving is just awesome. Now let's enjoy these 70s tomorrow...not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I've always wondered how much elevation plays into this kind of marginal event in this area. While the Piedmont is not mountainous, there is a big elevation difference between Charlotte, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and Raleigh. Charlotte sits at 751 ft. (I think that's the airport, so the city may be less) while Greensboro is at 902 ft. (at the airport, the city is ~800 ft.). Winston-Salem is at 970 ft. while Raleigh is at just 315 ft. Guilford County has some fairly decent elevation changes with the western areas being 900+ ft. ASL while the southeastern areas are well under 700 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well, The EURO has a bias warm at 2m as well. 850's are just cold enough, and with the heavy rates, I could see something like...if you have heavy precip, its going to be snow. Lighter precip, rain/snow mix or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 KATL still in the game. I agree with this, especially for mainly nonsticking or perhaps a T or even a very small measurable accum. snow. Although the primary Miller A storm track that has given KATL sig. snow in the past has been when the low forms in the W GOM and moves E or ENE, ATL has received big snow from at least one forming in/near the E GOM or the Caribbean. The one I know of off the top of my head was a rare early Dec. major hit (6-7"!) way back in the late 1800's (the low actually came up from the Caribbean!). The main problem as I see it is the lack of a solid Arctic high to the north and west. It looks rather paltry to me. So, as of now, I doubt that it would be cold enough at the surface for sig. sticking despite very favorable 850's that are colder than 0C. But it isn't impossible, of course, especially considering that the 12Z Euro has ~0.50" of qpf for KATL. Regardless, several hours of a nonsticking snow or snow/rain mix would be quite possible as it appears to me as of now. Measurable KATL snows in November: 11/27/1912: 2.2"; 11/11/1968: 1.0"; 11/23/1975: 0.6" My guess as of now: KATL will get a T of SN on 11/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks calculus I don't have a facebook but bein a young wienie myself I've always enjoyed robs forecasts very educational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I've always wondered how much elevation plays into this kind of marginal event in this area. While the Piedmont is not mountainous, there is a big elevation difference between Charlotte, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and Raleigh. Charlotte sits at 751 ft. (I think that's the airport, so the city may be less) while Greensboro is at 902 ft. (at the airport, the city is ~800 ft.). Winston-Salem is at 970 ft. while Raleigh is at just 315 ft. Guilford County has some fairly decent elevation changes with the western areas being 900+ ft. ASL while the southeastern areas are well under 700 ft. James, I've seen it play a huge role several times in my area. My neighborhood sits at 1300' per topo maps. 10 miles east in Bassett: 1100' 20mi east in Martinsville: 950' We'll have accumulating snow in my neighborhood, drive down the hill into the town of Bassett, they'll have light rain/snow mix with little accumulation, and Martinsville will have about the same or even less. It's really neat to see that play out. I tell my co-workers I live in a snow globe. They never believe me when I say there's snow on the roads at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just finally got around to looking at the 12z NAM. I know it's way out of its useful range, but talk about a different solution. No precip makes it west of Greenville, NC or so. Interesting to have an outlier like that. FWIW, the UKMET looks in fairly good agreement with the Euro and GFS, though maybe a little warmer (from what I can tell from the limited maps available). Jonathan, interesting. It will be interesting to see if the Euro Ensembles are as far west as the operational later on this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think our best hope is that none of the hi-res models are showing the storm yet; thus we don't have any hi-res thermal data to look at in the boundary layer. I know with the last snow event, none of the global models were showing snow in SC, yet the the hi-res model's were all over it. So in summary we need the short range model's to: 1. Actually develop the storm and 2. Show colder boundary layer temps under the best lift/precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The 15z SREF mean looks pretty sweet, from what I can tell. The mean has 1" QPF stretching back to I-85 with <0C 850 temperatures from I-85/west and the 0C line moves east as the storm draws on. Not sure about BL temperatures. I know the plumes from the 09z run showed ~2" for GSO/CLT/RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The 12z EURO clown looks pretty bad for anyone outside of the nw NC/VA mountains, anyone east of I-77 and basically the entire I-95 corridor. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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