WxJordan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It is amazing we are even discussing this possibility in late November.... This is going to be an interesting storm to track and follow over the next couple of days. While the GFS 12z brought more moisture in, temperatures increased to the point where accumulations would be difficult for anyone outside the mountains. With that being said, it really depends what occurs with the northern stream energy. If this northern stream is eastward and/or weaker, this could help to cool the atmosphere and help boundary layer temperatures. Temperatures from 900 mb down in Hickory are above freezing during the heaviest precipitation, and this would be difficult to overcome. I plan on issuing a full synopsis later this evening once the 12z EURO runs. It all comes down boundary layer temperatures, which we are accustomed to here in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Don't forget, central SC had accumulating snow on Halloween. Granted, they were driven by extreme dynamics, but it can happen. Plus, it's been a cold November! Heck, seems like we were in the 60s and 70s before every winter storm last year. I wouldn't know how to handle it if I didn't wear flip flops the day before a winter storm. If this shapes up like DEC 09, the NC mountains and immediate foothills of NC/VA could really rack up. We had 8" near Martinsville, VA from that one. Let's get these BL temps down so we can gain a little confidence, GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Don't forget, central SC had accumulating snow in early November. Granted, they were driven by extreme dynamics, but it can happen. Plus, it's been a cold November! Heck, seems like we were in the 60s and 70s before every winter storm last year. I wouldn't know how to handle it if I didn't wear flip flops the day before a winter storm. If this shapes up like DEC 09, the NC mountains and immediate foothills of NC/VA could really rack up. We had 8" near Martinsville, VA from that one. Let's get these BL temps down so we can gain a little confidence, GFS! Ended up with 18" from that Dec 09 storm here in Roanoke. I wouldn't mind seeing a redux of that, but that might be a stretch. I'd be happy with a couple inches and just seeing flakes fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Weren't alot of the same issues being discussed now , the same things being talked about during the Halloween storm? Bl issues, only Nov, and etc..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro will def. be interesting on this run. Even if we can get 850's and thickness right will it stick? Probably not but it's November and snow around Thanksgiving will be great. The November 1st storm here in Lexington SC.. I thought it wasn't going to stick either.. had been so warm.. but even the roads started to get dicey for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 KATL still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Great for your neck of the woods...I might have to go a day earlier to my mom's in Winston. Pack, I wouldn't totally give up on our area. Looking at the 12 GFS we would be under the best precip rates. That 850 line would be to our west during most of the event but would push back past us as the low moves away (maybe cold chasing but...). Point is surface temps will be bad everywhere and really what anybody needs are the heaver rates. We also have some time to get those 850s a little colder. We saw that last year and this can still happen the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It is interesting that the new GFS Hires T1534 Sunday 12z run is not picking up on the NC Mountains and Foothiils snow for Wednesday. I don't think it has the right solution Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 11/23/14, 11:16 Upgraded version of GFS 12z has 1002 mb Clipper system over Great Lakes. Not in Current version of GFS +90 hr comp: pic.twitter.com/CcN7ng87vQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ended up with 18" from that Dec 09 storm here in Roanoke. I wouldn't mind seeing a redux of that, but that might be a stretch. I'd be happy with a couple inches and just seeing flakes fly. I'd be perfectly cool with 2-3" and flakes flying around. BUT I also wouldn't complain about a DEC 09 redux. At this point, everything is an awesome bonus. The fact that we're tracking a potential big time winter storm before Thanksgiving is incredible. (Had to edit my earlier post. I said "early November" and I meant on Halloween re: when SC had accumulating snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 From KCAE's latest discussion: LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. No go so far guys, not liking the temps what so ever for many not just us. In fact, without a major change, I can't see anything besides rain in KCAE being a remote possibility. Maybe some sleet? Seems the Euro EPS just isn't going to bite. EPS went from one member showing Winter in KCAE to 0 now. Sorry guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It is interesting that the new GFS Hires T1534 Sunday 12z run is not picking up on the NC Mountains and Foothiils snow for Wednesday. I don't think it has the right solution Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 11/23/14, 11:16 Upgraded version of GFS 12z has 1002 mb Clipper system over Great Lakes. Not in Current version of GFS +90 hr comp: pic.twitter.com/CcN7ng87vQ It fails to phase, that's all. So I guess we will now get to see if the new GFS actually sucks, or if it's better than both the Euro and the current GFS. It does match up with the NAM, but that's not exactly good company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I know we're all getting excited for snow in Western North Carolina mtns/foothills...but I can tell you right now, this kind of temperature profile will NOT cut it...http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KAVL&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h72&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h72&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Topdown-Method for those wanting to learn about it. Basically deterimines precip-type: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc/documents/color_PDFs/IC61.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's going to be really hard to get it to stick, especially after today's heavy rain. I'd just like to see it snow. Indeed From KCAE's latest discussion: No go so far guys, not liking the temps what so ever for many not just us. In fact, without a major change, I can't see anything besides rain in KCAE being a remote possibility. Maybe some sleet? Seems the Euro EPS just isn't going to bite. EPS went from one member showing Winter in KCAE to 0 now. Sorry guys. It's never been anything more than a cold rain around here for this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 KATL still in the game. Keep that 0 line down near Dothan and we definitely have a chance...well, you do anyway, lol. MayRetta always sees flurries at least T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Indeed It's never been anything more than a cold rain around here for this system Yeah. It was even most likely rain on better model runs down this way. Some of the snowfall maps coming out do not make sense for KCAE. Not supported in the atmosphere by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 KATL still in the game. will there even be any moisture in Alabama and the western half of ga ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I know we're all getting excited for snow in Western North Carolina mtns/foothills...but I can tell you right now, this kind of temperature profile will NOT cut it... http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KAVL&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h72&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h72&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Lake Lure sits around1000' below Asheville. Not saying you are wrong, but that 1000' will make a big difference in temp profiles. Also good precip will still be available at 18z when temps are project to drop even farther but those are only the 6z and 12z temp profiles. If precip is heavy enough, 1-2 degrees above freezing will still be snow. Bufkit showing snow in the am and an icy change over for KAVL around 12z but has the freezing line at 2000'. It will be a very close call. Lets hope temp profiles continue to trend lower. 12z Bufkit for KAVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Pack, I wouldn't totally give up on our area. Looking at the 12 GFS we would be under the best precip rates. That 850 line would be to our west during most of the event but would push back past us as the low moves away (maybe cold chasing but...). Point is surface temps will be bad everywhere and really what anybody needs are the heaver rates. We also have some time to get those 850s a little colder. We saw that last year and this can still happen the next couple of days. Not sure why I even looked but there are 11 of 21 members that are 850 cold enough for snow and big hits for central NC. Several are much colder. There are also 5 or so that are mega torches which skews the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lake Lure sits around1000' below Asheville. Not saying you are wrong, but that 1000' will make a big difference in temp profiles. Also good precip will still be available at 18z when temps are project to drop even farther but those are only the 6z and 12z temp profiles. If precip is heavy enough, 1-2 degrees above freezing will still be snow. Bufkit showing snow in the am and an icy change over for KAVL around 12z but has the freezing line at 2000'. It will be a very close call. Lets hope temp profiles continue to trend lower. 12z Bufkit for KAVL Image is a little distorted detail wise, but are those higher omega values at the heaviest precip time? That could help a lot if so. Edit: trying to look a bit closer, seems like the snow growth region may be out of the greatest moisture that time... and later on it drops a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Brad P. isn't playing ball, says cold rain or nothing.. Huge model discrepancy on the big travel day storm for the east coast. I don't see any snow outside of the mountains for the Carolinas right now. A wet snowflake east of the mountains stand a 10% chance of happening with zero accumulations likely. The biggest issues will be north from the I-95 corridor in DC to Boston. Biggest issue of all is that there are way too many moving parts and pieces to know for sure at this time frame. Right now likelihood for our area(The Carolinas) is for a cold rain or nothing at all right now. Travelers going north and northeast though be aware of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 will there even be any moisture in Alabama and the western half of ga ? Well, you like to see differing speeds You want the rain to fade in the stretch, and start lagging, and you want to see the cold line down near southern Ala. just swing across, and not pulling to the north at the Ga. line, and you'd like to see it getting it's second wind. Even better you want to see a western movement to the point where the low forms in the gulf, and not out in the Atlantic, lol. And you'd like it to not be Nov, but Jan Other than that I'd say we are all fine for flurries, even Shack and El K...and I can hear Delta laughing all the way up here I actually like your chances. Get a stray cloud swinging by on those nw winds, and you'll cool down quicker then the rest of us. Stranger things have happened. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Has anyone heard from robert? Whats his thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Has anyone heard from robert? Whats his thoughts? Yep. It's on his website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Has anyone heard from robert? Whats his thoughts? He just posted a note on the Facebook page, using Nov 2000 event as a case study that it can snow outside of the mountains this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not sure why I even looked but there are 11 of 21 members that are 850 cold enough for snow and big hits for central NC. Several are much colder. There are also 5 or so that are mega torches which skews the mean. That's great news! Still some hope. Even if we just get rain changing to some snow that would be a win. Those kinds of expectations/hopes are a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 One thing I noticed on the latest gfs run, is the great lakes cutter going on now, doesn't bomb out as much. That doesn't allow the mid levels to cool/dry out quite as much as the previous runs. Hoping that is just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro looks a lot better with moisture. More of a neutral to negative tilt out to 72. Also big piece of norther energy screaming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Def. wetter but also way too warm with thickness to support snow pretty much for everyone out of the SW mountains of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If that northern energy could speed up and phase we would have a big daddy. Right now there just isn't a phase and it's too warm. On the back end it does cool down and there is a good amount of QPF still left around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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