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T-day eve possible SE winter storm (11/26/14)


GaWx

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It is amazing we are even discussing this possibility in late November.... This is going to be an interesting storm to track and follow over the next couple of days. While the GFS 12z brought more moisture in, temperatures increased to the point where accumulations would be difficult for anyone outside the mountains.

 

With that being said, it really depends what occurs with the northern stream energy. If this northern stream is eastward and/or weaker, this could help to cool the atmosphere and help boundary layer temperatures. Temperatures from 900 mb down in Hickory are above freezing during the heaviest precipitation, and this would be difficult to overcome.

 

I plan on issuing a full synopsis later this evening once the 12z EURO runs. It all comes down boundary layer temperatures, which we are accustomed to here in the southeast.

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Don't forget, central SC had accumulating snow on Halloween. Granted, they were driven by extreme dynamics, but it can happen. Plus, it's been a cold November!

Heck, seems like we were in the 60s and 70s before every winter storm last year. I wouldn't know how to handle it if I didn't wear flip flops the day before a winter storm. :)

If this shapes up like DEC 09, the NC mountains and immediate foothills of NC/VA could really rack up. We had 8" near Martinsville, VA from that one.

Let's get these BL temps down so we can gain a little confidence, GFS!

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Don't forget, central SC had accumulating snow in early November. Granted, they were driven by extreme dynamics, but it can happen. Plus, it's been a cold November!

Heck, seems like we were in the 60s and 70s before every winter storm last year. I wouldn't know how to handle it if I didn't wear flip flops the day before a winter storm. :)

If this shapes up like DEC 09, the NC mountains and immediate foothills of NC/VA could really rack up. We had 8" near Martinsville, VA from that one.

Let's get these BL temps down so we can gain a little confidence, GFS!

Ended up with 18" from that Dec 09 storm here in Roanoke. I wouldn't mind seeing a redux of that, but that might be a stretch. I'd be happy with a couple inches and just seeing flakes fly.

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Euro will def. be interesting on this run. Even if we can get 850's and thickness right will it stick? Probably not but it's November and snow around Thanksgiving will be great. 

The November 1st storm here in Lexington SC.. I thought it wasn't going to stick either.. had been so warm.. but even the roads started to get dicey for a while.

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Great for your neck of the woods...I might have to go a day earlier to my mom's in Winston.

Pack, I wouldn't totally give up on our area. Looking at the 12 GFS we would be under the best precip rates. That 850 line would be to our west during most of the event but would push back past us as the low moves away (maybe cold chasing but...). Point is surface temps will be bad everywhere and really what anybody needs are the heaver rates. We also have some time to get those 850s a little colder. We saw that last year and this can still happen the next couple of days.

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It is interesting that the new GFS Hires T1534 Sunday 12z run is not picking up on the NC Mountains and Foothiils snow for Wednesday.

I don't think it has the right solution

Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue)

11/23/14, 11:16

Upgraded version of GFS 12z has 1002 mb Clipper system over Great Lakes. Not in Current version of GFS +90 hr comp: pic.twitter.com/CcN7ng87vQ

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Ended up with 18" from that Dec 09 storm here in Roanoke. I wouldn't mind seeing a redux of that, but that might be a stretch. I'd be happy with a couple inches and just seeing flakes fly.

I'd be perfectly cool with 2-3" and flakes flying around. BUT I also wouldn't complain about a DEC 09 redux. :P At this point, everything is an awesome bonus. The fact that we're tracking a potential big time winter storm before Thanksgiving is incredible. :)

(Had to edit my earlier post. I said "early November" and I meant on Halloween re: when SC had accumulating snow)

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From KCAE's latest discussion:

 


LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL  
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN  
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
. BY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND  
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

 

No go so far guys, not liking the temps what so ever for many not just us.  In fact, without a major change, I can't see anything besides rain in KCAE being a remote possibility.  Maybe some sleet?  Seems the Euro EPS just isn't going to bite.  EPS went from one member showing Winter in KCAE to 0 now.  Sorry guys.

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It is interesting that the new GFS Hires T1534 Sunday 12z run is not picking up on the NC Mountains and Foothiils snow for Wednesday.

I don't think it has the right solution

Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue)

11/23/14, 11:16

Upgraded version of GFS 12z has 1002 mb Clipper system over Great Lakes. Not in Current version of GFS +90 hr comp: pic.twitter.com/CcN7ng87vQ

It fails to phase, that's all.

So I guess we will now get to see if the new GFS actually sucks, or if it's better than both the Euro and the current GFS. It does match up with the NAM, but that's not exactly good company.

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I know we're all getting excited for snow in Western North Carolina mtns/foothills...but I can tell you right now, this kind of temperature profile will NOT cut it...


http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KAVL&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h72&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480


http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h72&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480

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It's going to be really hard to get it to stick, especially after today's heavy rain. I'd just like to see it snow.

Indeed   :P  

 

From KCAE's latest discussion:

 

 

 

No go so far guys, not liking the temps what so ever for many not just us.  In fact, without a major change, I can't see anything besides rain in KCAE being a remote possibility.  Maybe some sleet?  Seems the Euro EPS just isn't going to bite.  EPS went from one member showing Winter in KCAE to 0 now.  Sorry guys.

It's never been anything more than a cold rain around here for this system     :icecream:

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Indeed   :P

 

It's never been anything more than a cold rain around here for this system     :icecream:

 

Yeah.  It was even most likely rain on better model runs down this way.  Some of the snowfall maps coming out do not make sense for KCAE.  Not supported in the atmosphere by any means.

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I know we're all getting excited for snow in Western North Carolina mtns/foothills...but I can tell you right now, this kind of temperature profile will NOT cut it...

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KAVL&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h72&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h72&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480

 

 

Lake Lure sits around1000' below Asheville.  Not saying you are wrong, but that 1000' will make a big difference in temp profiles.  Also good precip will still be available at 18z when temps are project to drop even farther but those are only the 6z and 12z temp profiles.  If precip is heavy enough, 1-2 degrees above freezing will still be snow.  Bufkit showing snow in the am and an icy change over for KAVL around 12z but has the freezing line at 2000'.  It will be a very close call.  Lets hope temp profiles continue to trend lower.

 

12z Bufkit for KAVL 

 

hrzi45.jpg

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Pack, I wouldn't totally give up on our area. Looking at the 12 GFS we would be under the best precip rates. That 850 line would be to our west during most of the event but would push back past us as the low moves away (maybe cold chasing but...). Point is surface temps will be bad everywhere and really what anybody needs are the heaver rates. We also have some time to get those 850s a little colder. We saw that last year and this can still happen the next couple of days.

 

Not sure why I even looked but there are 11 of 21 members that are 850 cold enough for snow and big hits for central NC.  Several are much colder.  There are also 5 or so that are mega torches which skews the mean.

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Lake Lure sits around1000' below Asheville.  Not saying you are wrong, but that 1000' will make a big difference in temp profiles.  Also good precip will still be available at 18z when temps are project to drop even farther but those are only the 6z and 12z temp profiles.  If precip is heavy enough, 1-2 degrees above freezing will still be snow.  Bufkit showing snow in the am and an icy change over for KAVL around 12z but has the freezing line at 2000'.  It will be a very close call.  Lets hope temp profiles continue to trend lower.

 

12z Bufkit for KAVL 

 

 

 

Image is a little distorted detail wise, but are those higher omega values at the heaviest precip time?  That could help a lot if so.

 

Edit: trying to look a bit closer, seems like the snow growth region may be out of the greatest moisture that time... and later on it drops a bit.

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Brad P. isn't playing ball, says cold rain or nothing..

 

 

 

Huge model discrepancy on the big travel day storm for the east coast. I don't see any snow outside of the mountains for the Carolinas right now. A wet snowflake east of the mountains stand a 10% chance of happening with zero accumulations likely. The biggest issues will be north from the I-95 corridor in DC to Boston. Biggest issue of all is that there are way too many moving parts and pieces to know for sure at this time frame. Right now likelihood for our area(The Carolinas) is for a cold rain or nothing at all right now. Travelers going north and northeast though be aware of this.
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will there even be any moisture in Alabama and the western half of ga ?

  Well, you like to see differing speeds :)  You want the rain to fade in the stretch, and start lagging, and you want to see the cold line down near southern Ala. just swing across, and not pulling to the north at the Ga. line, and you'd like to see it getting it's second wind.  Even better you want to see a western movement to the point where the low forms in the gulf, and not out in the Atlantic, lol.  And you'd like it to not be Nov, but Jan :)  Other than that I'd say we are all fine for flurries, even Shack and El K...and I can hear Delta laughing all the way up here :)

  I actually like your chances.  Get a stray cloud swinging by on those nw winds, and you'll cool down quicker then the rest of us.  Stranger things have happened.  Tony

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Not sure why I even looked but there are 11 of 21 members that are 850 cold enough for snow and big hits for central NC.  Several are much colder.  There are also 5 or so that are mega torches which skews the mean.

That's great news! Still some hope. Even if we just get rain changing to some snow that would be a win. Those kinds of expectations/hopes are a real possibility.    

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