Shawn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 For KCAE, temp issues. The 12/00z GFS snowfall map doesn't make sense. Too warm around these parts for the bulk of precip. Only one member of the 12z Euro EPS has any WInter weather down this way.. and it's light. Also, only two members of the GFS show any form of Winter weather and it's basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I Think there is potential here. I really do. However, I Think most will be disappointed on where I think the best chances are. *subject to change* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I Think there is potential here. I really do. However, I Think most will be disappointed on where I think the best chances are. *subject to change* Are you thinking more BL issues or phasing too late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Are you thinking more BL issues or phasing too late? IMO its going to be the BL issues for the biggest NEG for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The good Doc is running. HR66 its diving over Southern TX Gonna be a storm for sure on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 IMO its going to be the BL issues for the biggest NEG for this. Yea idk I feel for areas in central NC in reference to the BL problems, however for Disc and I we may have something brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Much wetter for WNC. Boom at hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 https://twitter.com/wxmanchris/status/536403236836872192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 MUCH wetter for most. Clown maps are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW, WeatherBell clown map paints this as an I-85-west storm. 5"+ from GSO to CLT on west. Not sure if that's accurate or not, but it's a first look. Temperatures are iffy as hell. It's definitely too warm for Raleigh. The clown gives DCA a foot. GSO ~6". Boone 10". CLT ~3". SW VA looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Moisture cross the apps into ETN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The good Doc is running. HR66 its diving over Southern TX Gonna be a storm for sure on this. Any new developments in reference to phasing and qpf production? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Moisture cross the apps into ETN? Precip basically hits a wall just across the NC/TN border, so no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Swing & Miss for KCAE on OP Euro. Good moisture though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 https://twitter.com/wxmanchris/status/536405158796996608 hint, WNC and even C NC do ok/good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm worried about a westward trend we've seen. Any further west and anyone east of the mountains might be screwed. Then again, the Euro might be wounding this thing up too much and pushing it further west, as it supposedly has a tendency to do. Oh, well, it's November. It probably won't work out, but maybe it will. It's November, but it's only a few days from early December and NC has certainly had a major/historic winter storm in early December before (hint, hint - December 2002), so it's not that unprecedented in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro looks like legit wet snow for the Asheville-Hickory-Greensboro corridor. Sfc temps in these areas go from 35 at 7AM to 34 at 1PM. It's a touch warmer for Greer to Charlotte to Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm worried about a westward trend we've seen. Any further west and anyone east of the mountains might be screwed. Then again, the Euro might be wounding this thing up too much and pushing it further west, as it supposedly has a tendency to do. Oh, well, it's November. It probably won't work out, but maybe it will. It's November, but it's only a few days from early December and we've certainly had a major/historic winter storm in early December before (hint, hint - December 2002), so it's not that unprecedented in a way. Concur however Euro's wheelhouse is now and usually leads the way in regards to catching on at this timeframe while the GFS flips more than a fish out of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro looks like legit wet snow for the Asheville-Hickory-Greensboro corridor. Sfc temps in these areas go from 35 at 7AM to 34 at 1PM. It's a touch warmer for Greer to Charlotte to Raleigh I Agree. This would be that heavy wet snow, that with heavy rates will be snow...lighter rates will be rain. IMO This is the euro's wheel house for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If the snow's anything like the January 2013 ULL around here, there would be significant power outages with that kind of situation. That storm featured 3.5" of heavy wet snow with temperatures of 33/34 and we did lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 6Z GFS is about to go KABOOM! 78 Hour the entire 5H setup has shifted significantly westward with high QPF making it back to the blue ridge. This is a classic setup for rates to overcome BL for some of us if it comes down that hard in a 6 hour period as currently showing. Subsequently, 81-87 hr period has the low closer to coast. EURO as of right now is leading the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like the 6z GFS trended slightly west. This would put 850 zero line just west of RDU. Definitely liked the 0z much better for my area, but this would better match the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 6z Para also coming back around to the Euro. Still a swing and a miss but much further west than the 00z Para. Those BL temps though are just well, not too good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like the 6z GFS trended slightly west. This would put 850 zero line just west of RDU. Definitely liked the 0z much better for my area, but this would better match the euro. Yep, this is taking a Dec 2009 look. Great for folks west of 85. Bummer for us, we get fringed again, but great to see a winter event event for so many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm worried about a westward trend we've seen. Any further west and anyone east of the mountains might be screwed. Then again, the Euro might be wounding this thing up too much and pushing it further west, as it supposedly has a tendency to do. Oh, well, it's November. It probably won't work out, but maybe it will. It's November, but it's only a few days from early December and NC has certainly had a major/historic winter storm in early December before (hint, hint - December 2002), so it's not that unprecedented in a way. It can only go so far west, it's still a progressive pattern. I think we have seen the furthest westward extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Good morning everyone! Packbacker (or anyone else), do you have the Euro ensembles? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro has been onto something since Friday night and hasn't dropped it yet. All other models continue to trend towards the solution that it is showing. For MBY things look pretty good for accumulation. 06z GFS and 00z Euro are both nice shots of snow. 00z CMC is the outlier but has trended west the past 3 runs with the low. This one is going to be fun in WNC I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Good morning everyone! Packbacker (or anyone else), do you have the Euro ensembles? Thanks! What you want to know? The Euro op tracks the SLP just inside HAT, the Euro ENS mean is about 50 miles east of HAT with really good agreement actually which looking at the individual runs. There is a big cluster just about 25 miles east of HAT. I think this tracks just over HAT or just a smidge east of HAT, IMO, which is where the 12z yesterday had it. Now if the 12z Euro ticks west again then maybe I am wrong, but I would guess the Euro Op starts to windshield wipe over HAT the next couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Comparing the 6z GFS to the 12z GFS yesterday you can see the earlier phase and going negative sooner. GFS is pretty good at 72 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That trend to go negative tilt earlier and earlier cannot be ignored. Those of us east of Raleigh are going to be on the outside looking in on this one I am afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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