Cold Rain Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Only thing I am hoping for is the weak 1029HP that is over NY that is trying to hang on, it's helping some. Kind of reminds me of 2/12-13 storm last winter. So you're all in then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Oh, and isn't the EPS control basically the 51st member of the ensemble suite? Yes one of the 51 members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So you're all in then? If this was mid-Dec or later I would be all in, throwing in the wife and kids too! The Euro's 2m temps are usually warm at this range and it has us at 33-35F at the heart of the precip. It's actually amazing it's that cold with the weak sliding HP, middle of the day and it's Nov 26th. It seems like every winter storm at this range in Jan/Feb we are sweating a couple of degrees. It would be nice if the storm slowed down a few hours, if the heart of the precip was from 21z to 0z it would make this more doable. The 12z Euro SLP over HAT is almost a perfect track for what we want. This is bringing back memories of the nightmare that was 12/19/09. The 18z GEFS had 13 of 21 members with snow in central NC. 7 of the members were big winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You guys are helped out by a late developing low. This keeps your southerly winds to a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yes one of the 51 members Thanks Grit. Pack, that's not too terrible from the ens. You'll be all in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Without a clear signal for a stout high pressure to the N or NW, *if* we get precip, it's a coin flip wrt type at this point. Already having fun tracking though, so that's good! Oh, and isn't the EPS control basically the 51st member of the ensemble suite? Hey, CR, just for kicks and giggles, what if it trends west, which it easily could, and we get a gulf low instead of an east coast low....and say, it's weak, and sags south so the disappeared lands, down south of I 20 in Ga. get all the goodies, and then it's out to sea. Will the whole East Coast just implode and explode simultaneously? Will there be a audible sound? Lol. Fun tracking, for sure! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This setup seems to me like many from recent years that favor areas from Rock Hill to Gaffney to Charlotte and points north and west will have the best shot. NC mountains and NWFS areas may be ok too, but western upstate and and eastern NEGA snow hole will be in full force. We will need a Miller A or perfectly placed ULL to get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This setup seems to me like many from recent years that favor areas from Rock Hill to Gaffney to Charlotte and points north and west will have the best shot. NC mountains and NWFS areas may be ok too, but western upstate and and eastern NEGA snow hole will be in full force. We will need a Miller A or perfectly placed ULL to get anything. So you are saying there is a chance for GSP???? I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Again, I don't think I've ever seen this area miss out on a legit winter storm due to BL temperatures alone (maybe so further east). If 850s and other critical areas look okay, I'll take my chances with surface temperatures. I'm not in, but I'm gathering my chips. Caution has to be advised given we're threading a needle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Again, I don't think I've ever seen this area miss out on a legit winter storm due to BL temperatures alone (maybe so further east). If 850s and other critical areas look okay, I'll take my chances with surface temperatures. I'm not in, but I'm gathering my chips. Caution has to be advised given we're threading a needle here. I will say...for RDU the avg high on Wed is the same as the avg high on a March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I will say...for RDU the avg high on Wed is the same as the avg high on a March 1st. True, though unlike March 1st the sun angle is equivalent to about January 20th, so that should help surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So you are saying there is a chance for GSP???? I like it.Only a chance that Lloyd Christmas would be excited about Just reread my original post. Points to the north and east of that line is what I meant to say, not points north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS is going to be a beast, better phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS is going to be a beast, better phase. yep phases at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If surface level temperatures cooperate on this run its going to be a monster. Clown maps should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not even close on the sfc temps around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If surface level temperatures cooperate on this run its going to be a monster. Clown maps should be fun. GFS soundings at Greensboro (GSO) have surface wet bulbs dropping down to around 37 deg...that would be a rain/snow mix at best by my estimation...verbatim this run anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS soundings at Greensboro (GSO) have surface wet bulbs dropping down to around 37 deg...that would be a rain/snow mix at best by my estimation...verbatim this run anyway. Yeah, same at HKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS soundings at Greensboro (GSO) have surface wet bulbs dropping down to around 37 deg...that would be a rain/snow mix at best by my estimation...verbatim this run anyway. Any chance this can trend cooler at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 UK is just inside GFS and 6 hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, same at HKY. Any chance this can trend cooler at the surface? It's a good looking coastal low with the trough digging down into the deep south. Problem is the cold air doesn't work in well enough behind tomorrow's storm. It's a close call though on temps...not far off the mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 RDU drops to 36 when precip starts and drops to 33-34 as things finish. This is during the middle of the day, like UK's timing better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's trending west. Three things to look out for: A further trend northwest in the next few days More precip on the western side It could possibly disappear for a few runs due to noise thanks to the immediate storm This is as far as the GFS goes, anyways. I've seen all three things happen too many times with these types of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 RDU drops to 36 when precip starts and drops to 33-34 as things finish. This is during the middle of the day, like UK's timing better. Yeah Pack just looked at Raleigh...you can tell the model is picking up on a little more cooling there with the heavier rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hey guys its been awhile since ive posted. Hope everyone is well. Just got a chance to look at the 18z and 00Z setups. Looks like upstairs at 500 there is a worlds difference comparing it just at 81 on the 00Z vs the 87 at 18Z. Significant step in the right direction. Thermals can be ironed out for sure still but last year this was the timeframe major shifts started happening. The precip field is what looks awesome when comparing as there is a huge shift northwest. I may have just bought in for this one. Very interested to hear about the Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Also if we can just get the northern stream diving down to speed up just a tick more or vice versa with the southern stream slowing down we will have a monster crawling up the coast. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hey guys its been awhile since ive posted. Hope everyone is well. Just got a chance to look at the 18z and 00Z setups. Looks like upstairs at 500 there is a worlds difference comparing it just at 81 on the 00Z vs the 87 at 18Z. Significant step in the right direction. Thermals can be ironed out for sure still but last year this was the timeframe major shifts started happening. The precip field is what looks awesome when comparing as there is a huge shift northwest. I may have just bought in for this one. Very interested to hear about the Euro tonight. Good to see you again, Buddy. I haven't gotten too much into following each model run yet, but after tonight's euro (if it continues) I might have to start paying more attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Anyone doing a PBP for the Euro tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Good to see you again, Buddy. I haven't gotten too much into following each model run yet, but after tonight's euro (if it continues) I might have to start paying more attention. Hey man pleasure to be up to speed here once again. You definitely may want to check this one out for sure by tomorrow. The .25 line has now crept all the way back here after being paltry on the 18Z. Havent compared the 12Z however very very encouraging with the beginning phasing happening around the 81 hr mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Great to see an early snow chance for my old peeps up in the Carolinas. Those BL temps look pretty ugly, but even if this doesn't pan out, it's a nice start to the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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