snowlover91 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS is cooler. I dont trust the NAM to tell me the sky is blue, personally. Remember how the NAM did with thermals on today's storm? It was the first to show low to mid 40s during the event while other models like GFS and Euro were showing mid and upper 30s. I'll go with the model that does best on thermals even if it's not what I like. GFS may be cooler but it is warm from 925mb down as well, too warm for snow especially at the surface. I think later in December and January we will all finally see some snow, but tomorrow the clipper doesn't have the thermal profile to support any white stuff making it to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 longer wavelengths in winter than November. but winter begins in just a little over 4 days. Surely the wavelengths can't be that much longer on December 1st than they are on November 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 but winter begins in just a little over 4 days. Surely the wavelengths can't be that much longer on December 1st than they are on November 26th. It's not a switch. It's a gradual transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 East of the apps in NC just use the actual first and last day of winter, Dec 21 through March 21 as a refernce point. It works out way better than using met winter as your metric. Really does well for summer to, doesn't consistently start getting uncomfortable until June 20 and want let off the gas pedal humidity wise till around Sept 21stish for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 but winter begins in just a little over 4 days. Surely the wavelengths can't be that much longer on December 1st than they are on November 26th.it's not that simple, like cold rain said it's gradual. And the jet slowly sags south over the course of winter too. Not reaching it's average south position until Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Congrats to all the snow lovers in my home state of Virginia!! Over a foot in parts of Highland and Rockingham counties and at least 4 or 5 inches in Winchester. Now if i can get them to send some of their leftovers for the season down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I received some token wet flakes during the height of the precip rates, briefly. Nothing to write home about. DT says the clipper tomorrow morning could give flakes to those who didn't see them today. Sfc to low level temps seem too high as stated earlier, though. Guess we'll see! Happy Thanksgiving to the SE Crew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Remember how the NAM did with thermals on today's storm? It was the first to show low to mid 40s during the event while other models like GFS and Euro were showing mid and upper 30s. I'll go with the model that does best on thermals even if it's not what I like. GFS may be cooler but it is warm from 925mb down as well, too warm for snow especially at the surface. I think later in December and January we will all finally see some snow, but tomorrow the clipper doesn't have the thermal profile to support any white stuff making it to the ground. What's your location? My point and click forecast from the NWS says 40% chance of rain and snow tonight with a low of 34. I think that they are using their forecasting skills and gut feelings. Models are just tools..... sometimes the models are right and sometimes not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 That clipper tomorrow looks like a dud too. No snow outside the mountains. Yes the upper levels are cold enough but not the surface extending up to and just beyond 925mb. By the time it does turn cold enough winds will be nw over the mountains and d/s kills all. But atm the greatest moisture seems to be assoicated with the waa taking place just above the surface. A hand full of people may see sleet flurries, rain. But not many with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 The 00z NAM has a really nice heavy shower passing through this area in the wee hours of the morning, but like you said the BL is pretty terrible. Upper 30s. Even if the model missed the mark and was too warm by a couple degrees, it likely wouldn't be enough. We seem to usually run into BL issues with clippers, though, and this is no exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Robert seems to be going in on this one for the NW Piedmont of NC and into VA. Don't think I agree... We are down to 38/36 as of 10 PM, at least. Still, with the DP of 36, there's no room to fall via wet bulbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Looks like the kiss of death! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 35/34 In Durham. Not really expecting anything, but definitely keeping my fingers crossed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 My temp is rising. lol was down to 37.3 now setting at 40 So my guess since it's not cold enough to snow the moisture will make it over the mountains! Now if it was in low-mid 30s I would bet on the skip over the foothills deal.... Maybe by late December we MIGHT have a pattern that will produce a chance of snow here, until then I say (enjoy the weather it's the only weather you got)! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 The sky's are clearing in places some nice cooling taking place . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 It probably won't matter because the cooling is only near the surface from radiational cooling. Once the precip starts, the cool air will probably mix out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 It probably won't matter because the cooling is only near the surface from radiational cooling. Once the precip starts, the cool air will probably mix out.I wouldn't doubt it. That blob will probably move too far north before it gets to us in Durham anyways.EDIT: RAH says no snow: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1040 PM WEDNESDAY... REMARKABLE CHANGES OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OBSERVED AT KGSO DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...SUCH THAT THE DEEP NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 550 MB THIS MORNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE SAME LAYER THIS EVENING...INCLUDING A 12 HR 500 MB CHANGE OF 15 DEGREES. LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN OVERNIGHT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AS A SERIES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT - INCLUDING MINUS 30 C AT KBNA AT 00Z - ROUND THE BASE OF A MEAN TROUGH AND CROSS NC. THE STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES...AND RE-MOISTENING/RE-SATURATION OF THE LOWEST 3-4 KM OWING TO THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF STRONG QG- FORCING ACCOMPANYING BOTH THE VORTICITY MAXIMA ALOFT AND A BRIEF LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH ELONGATED 850 MB LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WILL CAUSE AN AREA OF MIXED CHARACTER RAIN/SHOWERS TO FURTHER BLOSSOM IN THE LEE OFF THE APPALACHIANS...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT... TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE RADIATIONALLY COOLED BRIEFLY TO NEAR FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACCOMPANYING THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CREEP UP (FROM DOWNWARD L/W RADIATION) INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S - SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED AT KBUY AND K5W8 FROM 02-03Z - SUCH THAT ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...RECENT AMDAR DATA FROM RDU INDICATES A WARM LAYER WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 5 DEGREES IS PRESENT BETWEEN A 3-5 THOUSAND FT FREEZING LEVEL...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURE RIGHT AT THE SURFACE - MUCH TOO DEEP AND WARM FOR SNOW. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO OCCUR WITH THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST AND TOTAL TOTALS AND K-INDICES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 55 AND NEAR 30 C...RESPECTIVELY...THE RELATIVE BETTER (BUT STILL LOW PROBABILITY) WILL BE WITH DIURNAL HEATING/BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT ON THU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 It probably won't matter because the cooling is only near the surface from radiational cooling. Once the precip starts, the cool air will probably mix out. Yep! Back up to 40/38 as the light rain starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 The flakes are suppose too fall in the early morn hours not now it's 34degrees in Places the clouds will raise temps but if the moderate stuff shows it could mix come morn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Anyone seeing anything on the ground with that batch of returns around GSO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I'm at around 2800ft near Bryson City....getting really big flakes now. Starting to accumulate on an elevated deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Anyone seeing anything on the ground with that batch of returns around GSO? It was just light/moderate rain 3 miles east of GSO (the airport) and 5+ miles west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Sleet/snow/rain mix in Greensboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Robert seems to be going in on this one for the NW Piedmont of NC and into VA. Don't think I agree... His forecast last night was for snow showers for the areas he highlighted on the map. 1 inch max accumulation for areas of SW/South Central Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Galax in SWVA received 4" from the clipper with a general 1-3 in the swva mountains from Facebook reports. Nothing here in the foothills though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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