Smoked Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 18Z RAP seems to be favoring the warmer lower atmosphere temps (around 5 C or ~40F at the surface) for 12Z WED (18 model hour) (first image) with critical thickness values and the 850 mb 0 deg C isotherm (dark blue needed for snow at lower elevations only creeping eastward (second image). Notice lower atmosphere thickness value (yellow 850-1000 mb 1300 m thickness line) helpful for determining if temperatures is cold enough through the layer to support snow, remain well off to the west. It seems the same winds (925 to 850 mb in particular) that are bringing precipitation into WNC also seem to be modifying and/or slowing the inclusion of sufficiently cold air at the surface for snow. This would suggest mostly rain and or a mix in Asheville possibly ending as a brief period of snow (ignoring the upper level energy expected later Wednesday night) with the best chances for accumulations >1 or 2" at 4,000+ feet elevation. This all being said I'm not too familiar on this particular model's tendencies/biases and clearly other models have other opinions on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z NAM I hope is onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z NAM I hope is onto something? what are surface temps like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here's the 18Z Hi-Res NAM at hour 21: And, at hour 24: Precipitation is still hanging around at hour 27 in the lee of the Apps. Possible deformation band snow rain? This system has a classic comma-head look to it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here's the 18Z Hi-Res Yeah, I figured BL temps are torching? Do you have the BL temps for the foothills/piedmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 what are surface temps like? NAM is much cooler at the surface with temps just above freezing at 12z. If you believe the 12z NAM Asheville would turn over to predominately snow somewhere between 9-12z or 4-7am EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah, I figured BL temps are torching? Do you have the BL temps for the foothills/piedmont? Yeah, sorry, Big Frosty. Here are the surface temps for hour 24. Pretty horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GSP adding more counties to the WSW and WWA areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here's the sounding for Hickory at Hour 24. 850s are below freezing, but the lower levels appear to grow quite warm, relatively speaking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thanks, Calculus!!! Appreciate the bad news. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Calc the 18z NAM has you some flakes overnight Wed with the little clipper that could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Calc the 18z NAM has you some flakes overnight Wed with the little clipper that could Nice! I'll be in Asheville, though, with the in-laws. I think I have an even better chance there, but you never know since Asheville is in the driest county in the state (precipitation-wise, not alcohol-wise!). Thanks, Calculus!!! Appreciate the bad news. lol You're welcome. I think. =) By the way, here's another snippet from GSP's AFD where they mention the frontogenesis at 700 mb possible producing flakes in the foothills and piedmont under quite heavy rates. REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS THERE. I love it how they term it a "troubling trend". It's certainly not "troubling" to most of us on this site. It's more of a welcomed trend: Please, sir, may I have another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Calc the 18z NAM has you some flakes overnight Wed with the little clipper that could You're right. This does look interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Smoked, I believe the RAP tends to run a little warm, though I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RaysWeather has their forecast map out. No real surprises...except for the tongue of snowfall out in the piedmont. They illustrated a perfect leeside skip, but I didn't think that was the type of setup we have going on with this system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Smoked, I believe the RAP tends to run a little warm, though I may be wrong. Thanks Superjames. Hope that is the case for the snow enthusiasts up in the Mountains! NAM certainty points towards a much cooler solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RaysWeather has their forecast map out. No real surprises...except for the tongue of snowfall out in the piedmont. They illustrated a perfect leeside skip, but I didn't think that was the type of setup we have going on with this system: Imagine being in Denver and being the only person in Catawba County to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RaysWeather has their forecast map out. No real surprises...except for the tongue of snowfall out in the piedmont. They illustrated a perfect leeside skip, but I didn't think that was the type of setup we have going on with this system: I'm a big fan of that weenie tongue in the Piedmont. Please let it be. I'm assuming they are forecasting the deformation band to hang around just long enough here to change over at the tail end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RAP tends to be too warm at 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RAP tends to be too warm at 2mSo does the ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 00z NAM looks good, But I'm just a blue line snowman. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Moisture is coming inbound like gangbusters on southeast radar. Percursor is qpf will not disappoint on inbound winter storms latter this season unless your modeled on the fringe. I'm gonna be peeved if the northern mtns get left high and dry. Banking on snow being on the ground friday when we go tree hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Can someone tell me what it means when the board is in storm mode. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Can someone tell me what it means when the board is in storm mode. Thanks in advance. Did you read the storm mode link? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum-0/announcement-10-storm-mode-members-please-read/ There is also some great advice in the etiquette thread Members, Due to the high activity with the pending event, AmericanWx is entering in what is called Storm mode. Additional temporary moderators are added and the normal warn and suspend protocols are removed. Moderators will now have the power to automatically remove your posts and or suspend you without warning. Moderators will create ONE thread that you may mix banter and weather in. KEEP ALL BANTER in this thread ONLY. Please see below the new policies/rules that are put into affect under Storm Mode: 1. Cross thread trolling will not be permitted on the weather side. If you are in a region other than your own with the sole purpose of starting trouble, you will be suspended without question. 2. Model threads will be cleared of unrelated discussion, empty "smiley posts", personal attacks, and analysis without any basis. Even the most basic and rudimentary analysis would be appreciated. 3. In model threads, repetitive questions such as “how much for…..” etc will be deleted. 4. Please respect the professionals that post here. They will make forecasts as they are comfortable but continued pestering or badgering of them with "How much for...?" will result in the quickest exit from this board. We will not be tolerant of abusive or trolling behavior. 5. If you post a forecast, please have some sound reasoning behind it. IMBY forecasts also known as wishcasts will likely end up in OT or deleted. 6. DO NOT link threads that have nothing to do with weather or weather forecasting from any other board. Do not link threads from other boards that contain cross feuding or dealing with personal issues. There will be extra "storm mode' moderators. These are members that have been picked to moderate this forum only with limited moderating capabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Did you read the storm mode link? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum-0/announcement-10-storm-mode-members-please-read/ There is also some great advice in the etiquette thread Members, Due to the high activity with the pending event, AmericanWx is entering in what is called Storm mode. Additional temporary moderators are added and the normal warn and suspend protocols are removed. Moderators will now have the power to automatically remove your posts and or suspend you without warning. Moderators will create ONE thread that you may mix banter and weather in. KEEP ALL BANTER in this thread ONLY. Please see below the new policies/rules that are put into affect under Storm Mode: 1. Cross thread trolling will not be permitted on the weather side. If you are in a region other than your own with the sole purpose of starting trouble, you will be suspended without question. 2. Model threads will be cleared of unrelated discussion, empty "smiley posts", personal attacks, and analysis without any basis. Even the most basic and rudimentary analysis would be appreciated. 3. In model threads, repetitive questions such as “how much for…..” etc will be deleted. 4. Please respect the professionals that post here. They will make forecasts as they are comfortable but continued pestering or badgering of them with "How much for...?" will result in the quickest exit from this board. We will not be tolerant of abusive or trolling behavior. 5. If you post a forecast, please have some sound reasoning behind it. IMBY forecasts also known as wishcasts will likely end up in OT or deleted. 6. DO NOT link threads that have nothing to do with weather or weather forecasting from any other board. Do not link threads from other boards that contain cross feuding or dealing with personal issues. There will be extra "storm mode' moderators. These are members that have been picked to moderate this forum only with limited moderating capabilities. Thanks. There was no link in his post but I now know, and knowing is half the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Robert (wx south) is calling for a significant wet snow for most of NC. That type of call just seems ridiculous given what is shaping up. He is on an island by himself with a call like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Robert (wx south) is calling for a significant wet snow for most of NC. That type of call just seems ridiculous given what is shaping up. He is on an island by himself with a call like that. Where does he say most of NC? He says NC mountains on his Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Robert (wx south) is calling for a significant wet snow for most of NC. That type of call just seems ridiculous given what is shaping up. He is on an island by himself with a call like that. Really?!? Where do you see that, this is Roberts posts. Basically what has been reiterated over and over again on the boards tonight. "This is a soaker of a system, that starts in the eastern Gulf. Its a hearbreaker for those of you in the heart of the Piedmont NC, VA, SC, GA region because it's just not QUITE cold enough to do the job for a major low elevation snow storm....but if we repeat this pattern later this Winter, and I think we will, then Watch Out. This is about the perfect track for a snowstorm from Atlanta/Athens, , north and east. As it stands, mostly Mountain snow, with some transition at times just east of the mountains. Look at all the Moisture with this...it is loaded." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Where does he say most of NC? He says NC mountains on his Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 "I'd be shocked if most of NC, VA and eastern WV mountains don't get a significant wet snowstorm out of this." I believe this is what Marietta is talking about. It could have been worded differently but he's saying nc mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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