LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 As I have stated to you before...... there are some folks who depend on snow for their income. To them, it might be considered the same as gold. It's snow, getting panties in a bundle isn't going to change anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Rays weather and the NWS both used the 3000 foot number. I can promise you I am not going to say nothing because some folks don't like what I'm saying. As for my wish and hype casting Comment, it happens on every single storm. Nothing new here. Only Rays weather has said that. A quick google search which I have found to be very useful found this.. NWS Greer, SC states: AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS. A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT... SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. They state mountain snow, Asheville is in the mountains... It is annoying that you try and tailor things to make previous comments look less ignorant. Goggle is your friend. This is the last comment I am making on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's simple really and happens every winter storm, those who live in areas that miss out tend to get testy and angry at those who have a better chance or are already getting snow, and they also want to make it seem like the areas that seem primed for snow will not get as much as the models say and are generally very pessimistic. On to the storm... the models are trying to trend in the right direction this evening, Asheville has a good shot at 2-4 inches with this track and quickly lowering 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Only Rays weather has said that. A quick google search which I have found to be very useful found this.. NWS Greer, SC states: AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS. A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT... SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. They state mountain snow, Asheville is in the mountains... It is annoying that you try and tailor things to make previous comments look less ignorant. Goggle is your friend. This is the last comment I am making on this. Good luck on the storm. I did see a NWS statement mentioning 3000 feet and you already confirmed that Rays weather, pretty much the go to source for mountain weather used 3000 feet. You are way too testy and need to seriously think about your attitude. I have no skin in the game when it comes to the snow. It really Doesn't matter if the snow line is 2000-3000-4000. I used 3000 to illustrate my point of elevation driven, taking the number 3000 from a trusted source. Again good luck, I mean you no harm. Please re read my posts and ask yourself if I meant anyone harm in what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS is colder also. Let's hope the trend continues. Edit: a tad warmer. Tries to cutoff the northern energy, which i don't see happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's simple really and happens every winter storm, those who live in areas that miss out tend to get testy and angry at those who have a better chance or are already getting snow, and they also want to make it seem like the areas that seem primed for snow will not get as much as the models say and are generally very pessimistic. On to the storm... the models are trying to trend in the right direction this evening, Asheville has a good shot at 2-4 inches with this track and quickly lowering 850s Ok I can't take it, I admit, I'm insanely jealous of everybody else's snow!!! It'll never snow here ever again, as long as the Earth is around. Everyone from a 5 mile radius and outward will get dumped on all winter long and be praying for an end, whilst breaking shovel after shovel from the weight of it all. And here I'll be, sulking in a 60 degree hole of could have been model runs, undelivered clown maps, and a new shovel that never gets used. I'll watch in horror as downsloping, warm air advection, and unbearable boundary layers doom the rest of my life. I can't take it... HELP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ok I can't take it, I admit, I'm insanely jealous of everybody else's snow!!! It'll never snow here ever again, as long as the Earth is around. Everyone from a 5 mile radius and outward will get dumped on all winter long and be praying for an end, whilst breaking shovel after shovel from the weight of it all. And here I'll be, sulking in a 60 degree hole of could have been model runs, undelivered clown maps, and a new shovel that never gets used. I'll watch in horror as downsloping, warm air advection, and unbearable boundary layers doom the rest of my life. I can't take it... HELP! Welcome to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Take the bickering to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Does the GFS still look convective feedback....ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Does the GFS still look convective feedback....ish?Is it showing rain outside the mountains , then yesIt's going to be around 60 tomorrow here, more clouds and precip coming in a little sooner, I know we never really had a chance, but we really did have everything working against us, except the storm track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ya, the qpf is just so strong near that low..could be ok, euro did come in a bit drier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Does the GFS still look convective feedback....ish? Yes it does. I don' think it is properly modeling the amount of precip under that deformation band. Looks like it fires convecton along the coast and cuts off some transport to inland areas. Could it be on to something? Maybe... Also, looks like this one can be classified as a "zipper low" due to the thermal gradient and they can be tricky in terms of QPF placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 my 1st and only map of the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's hard to think the I-77 in corridor through the foothills won't see some snow in the air tomorrow with cold 850's and heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's hard to think the I-77 in corridor through the foothills won't see some snow in the air tomorrow with cold 850's and heavy rates. Even east into the rest of the piedmont the 850s crash below freezing before the heaviest precip end. Anybody have thoughts on the secondary disturbance coming after the main system? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141125+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Very nice map, localyokelweather! Impressive amounts of detail. I agree, packfan98. The NAM is printing out some very intense rates. With rather low temperatures, it seems that some snowflakes should survive the journey down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z NAM precip totals at hour 54: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_precip_p12.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p12&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141125+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=85 850 temps at hour 42: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_045_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141125+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Very nice map, localyokelweather! Impressive amounts of detail. I agree, packfan98. The NAM is printing out some very intense rates. With rather low temperatures, it seems that some snowflakes should survive the journey down to the surface. There might be some brief "snow-islands" if you are lucky enough to be under one of those heavy pockets in the deformation band. There again, it will depend on surface temps and how much cold air can be dragged down. Right now, it's not looking too good... that is unless the colder NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12Z 4K-NAM showing very heavy amounts of precipitation in western NC. I know the surface temps still are pretty horrible, but the 850s look decent. I haven't seen any soundings for this run yet. Hour 24: Hour 27: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wow I hate having to put together a forecast on this one. Just told all my followers I was very unsure and model temps looked more like rain. Very frustrating event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Watch the upper level energy sliding through Thursday am.....the profile looks much more favorable for snow in the Triad region.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wow I hate having to put together a forecast on this one. Just told all my followers I was very unsure and model temps looked more like rain. Very frustrating event. WPC gives me about a 1 in 4 chance of accumulating snowfall IMBY. Not too good... As others have mentioned, elevation will be key on this one. I am just over 1000 ft. So, unless the NAM scores a win, I will be watching this one on the webcams. Beech Mtn NC would be the place to go. It's 31 degrees there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think you guyss in asheville will be fine if anybody benifits from dynamic cooling its asheville I think us in marion will be on the outside lookin in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Watch the upper level energy sliding through Thursday am.....the profile looks much more favorable for snow in the Triad region.... Yes it does.... However, I would like to see it dig a little more. QPF is the problem with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z NAM looks great for AVL...it's definitely flips to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z NAM looks great for AVL...it's definitely flips to snow. Yes, looking at that output, it would suggest a flip sometime just before 09z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Was looking at Sat. and Radar seems that there is a good bit of dry air around. You can see the dry air eating the moisture up in SC. If the skies are clear tonight we might have a bigger drop off in temps than advertised. Im sitting at a Dewpoint of 22 right now hum. 25%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Was looking at Sat. and Radar seems that there is a good bit of dry air around. You can see the dry air eating the moisture up in SC. If the skies are clear tonight we might have a bigger drop off in temps than advertised. Im sitting at a Dewpoint of 22 right now hum. 25%. My DP is 36 hum 44% that's a big difference close as we live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My DP is 36 hum 44% that's a big difference close as we live? Fair 57°F 14°C Humidity25% Wind SpeedNW 5 mph Barometer30.05 in Dewpoint21°F (-6°C) Visibility10.00 mi Last Update on 25 Nov 2:35 pm EST Current conditions at Mount Airy / Surry County Airport (KMWK) Lat: 36.46°N Lon: 80.55°W Elev: 1247ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Fair 57°F 14°C Humidity25% Wind SpeedNW 5 mph Barometer30.05 in Dewpoint21°F (-6°C) Visibility10.00 mi Last Update on 25 Nov 2:35 pm EST Current conditions at Mount Airy / Surry County Airport (KMWK) Lat: 36.46°N Lon: 80.55°W Elev: 1247ft. Wetbulb is like 42 with those conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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