NC_WX10 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For us in the triad, they are so painstakingly close..is this storm close enough to where we could get a surprise? Because Imho I dont see how it is going to be in the upper 30s or low 40s during this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is all but confirming, IMO this is likely a High county event. More in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 is this storm close enough to where we could get a surprise? Because Imho I dont see how it is going to be in the upper 30s or low 40s during this storm. Why? The models are showing those temps and there is no source of cold surface air to tap. Not much is going to change. As many have stated his is an elevation driven storm, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Why? The models are showing those temps and there is no source of cold surface air to tap. Not much is going to change. As many have stated his is an elevation driven storm, period.I get that. I just know Robert had said yesterday that he thought there would be some surprises and the models weren't picking on some of the cold if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I get that. I just know Robert had said yesterday that he thought there would be some surprises and the models weren't picking on some of the cold if I'm not mistaken. Robert is good but I think this has moved in a direction that will make his original thoughts on the storm wrong. This storm has trended in a bad direction from day one it seems. I don't think he upper level cold is cold enough to deliver the dynamic driven snow he was calling for a couple of days ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back off if he hasn't already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I get that. I just know Robert had said yesterday that he thought there would be some surprises and the models weren't picking on some of the cold if I'm not mistaken. Robert is good but I think this has moved in a direction that will make his original thoughts on the storm wrong. This storm has trended in a bad direction from day one it seems. I don't think he upper level cold is cold enough to deliver the dynamic driven snow he was calling for a couple of days ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back off if he hasn't already. I know Robert has talked a lot about the models not seeing things yet and dynamics. He did the same last winter. Guess we'll see if that is the case or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The airmass that took over last night thanks to the warm front wiping out the in situ damming we had is to big a beast to overcome without a mechanism such as a 1030 or higher hp crossing new england. Cooling from the top down with surface dps in the upper 30s to low 40s is hard to do without serious elevation. The mtn peaks are right at or in some instances at 850 mb, we however have a several 1000 feet seperating us from the 850 mb level. So we would have to have atleast - 2 if not -3 850 temps along with heavy precipitation rates to even have a chance Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I know Robert has talked a lot about the models not seeing things yet and dynamics. He did the same last winter. Guess we'll see if that is the case or not. Robert is great, but I think he pushes what could happen as things that are likely to happen. I think that's where things get skewed. Wonder what this storm would look like with a "H" up north rather than an "L"...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm reading that the Euro is southeast of the 0z with colder temps for someone. Any hope for the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yea Pack 1008 mb low off Wilmington at 48 so it is a little southeast that should help some in the western parts of NC and maybe up my way although I really am getting a bad vibe here for my area I'd definitely be happy if 3-5 came to fruition but I don't want to set myself off for disappointment. I just don't see the Triad being able to overcome the BL issues on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm reading that the Euro is southeast of the 0z with colder temps for someone. Any hope for the SE? It's better, but not better enough, as you'd probably expect. Looks like we get a nice cold rain with temperatures dropping from the low 40s through the mid 30s. 850s hover around to slightly below freezing. 850s fall to -3C at hr 54 with another 0.05-0.1" of QPF to go, so one has to wonder if there might be a few sloppy wraparound mood flakes at the end, though probably not. Probably just awesome drizzle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's better, but not better enough, as you'd probably expect. Looks like we get a nice cold rain with temperatures dropping from the low 40s through the mid 30s. 850s hover around to slightly below freezing. 850s fall to -3C at hr 54 with another 0.05-0.1" of QPF to go, so one has to wonder if there might be a little sloppy wraparound mood flakes at the end, though probably not. It's actually tracks just inside HAT, which isn't good for anyone east of 77, but by some miracle it's slides east enough to hit PHL/NYC/BOS. Those are guys are on such a hot streak over the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's actually just inside HAT, which isn't good for anyone east of 77, but by some miracle it's slides east to hit PHL/NYC/BOS. Those are guys are on such a hot streak over the past few years. Yeah, that's generally a track that screws everyone in C NC, even in January. IIRC, last night's run actually went inland a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The ensemble probability maps from wxbell for the euro paint a horrid picture outside of the mountains, anywhere from 0-10%, maybe 20% in the foothills (probability of 1" or greater snowfall) even near Winston it's around 20%, hickory around 5%. This one was DOA, on to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My question is will Asheville get any accumulation? One minute I read 4-6 then 3-5 then 2-3 then lucky if we see any accumulation at all. Can the models still not get a handle on this storm? I read where the storm may create its own cold air thru out the mtns. which surely would include Asheville. When I was growing up Asheville was always considered the mtns.. Now when you listen to the weather they say snow for the mtns. but not so much for Asheville. well like I said anything atop Old Fort mtn. and west was considered the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My question is will Asheville get any accumulation? One minute I read 4-6 then 3-5 then 2-3 then lucky if we see any accumulation at all. Can the models still not get a handle on this storm? I read where the storm may create its own cold air thru out the mtns. which surely would include Asheville. When I was growing up Asheville was always considered the mtns.. Now when you listen to the weather they say snow for the mtns. but not so much for Asheville. well like I said anything atop Old Fort mtn. and west was considered the mtns. Depends on the elevation with this storm. It's looking to be confined to 3000+ feet this time. JMO. The models are fine, try and separate wishcasting or hypecasting from what the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I just might get a mix or flurry before it ends. NWS takes snow out one package then add it next package for last two days... in/out in/out etc............ .TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS INTHE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN90 PERCENT..WEDNESDAY...RAIN. MUCH COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND40. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT..WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW INTHE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NOSNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLEWINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT..THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THEMORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thanks to all u guys that stay up late and try and explain things to us wieenies I've learned a lot from you guys there's some very intelgent people. But that's what its all about right learning and enjoyment? Snow or not its bein fun god bless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Depends on the elevation with this storm. It's looking to be confined to 3000+ feet this time. JMO. The models are fine, try and separate wishcasting or hypecasting from what the models show. Jason Boyer on WLOS saying all snow for Asheville which is at 2100'. I guess he is just wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ill still give it a 10% chance for Charlotte to see any snow. 18z NAM has the 0c line at 925mb, but then again i noticed the 18z run is also the coldest of the 4 runs. we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 ...THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT... .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 27 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE MORNING. .TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY...SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Depends on the elevation with this storm. It's looking to be confined to 3000+ feet this time. JMO. The models are fine, try and separate wishcasting or hypecasting from what the models show. Hey didn't ask for a lecture just a simple question. Like I said I grew up here and know the area pretty darn good. For your info. Jason Boyer just announced Asheville will see a good 2-4 inches, Buncombe County wide and it may have to be tweaked a little higher. The higher mtns. may see 6-8 or more. So its not confined to 3000 feet. I sit at 2150 . Wishcasting and hype casting I don't think so man--Models have been known to be just as much wrong as right. I've shoveled 10 inches of partly cloudy off of my driveway before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hey didn't ask for a lecture just a simple question. Like I said I grew up here and know the area pretty darn good. For your info. Jason Boyer just announced Asheville will see a good 2-4 inches, Buncombe County wide and it may have to be tweaked a little higher. The higher mtns. may see 6-8 or more. So its not confined to 3000 feet. I sit at 2150 . Wishcasting and hype casting I don't think so man--Models have been known to be just as much wrong as right. I've shoveled 10 inches of partly cloudy off of my driveway before. My favorite storms are the ones no one saw coming Don't let MayRetta get your goat..... he knows as well as I do, if there is a flake in Ga. he'll see it, and he ain't all that much higher than me. It's all about the lay lines and if you are on 'em or not. MayRetta is on a snow flurry lay line sure as the sun comes up. And Hampton too. They'll get flurries in a one mile band when no one else does for many miles around. Of course, they attract tornadoes like crazy too, so I don't begrudge them the flurries, as long as they suck in the whirling wind killers too If a flurry falls in Ga south of Gainesville then Marietta will see half of it. It's just science T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 No matter the precip type, to observe this new system appearing within a matter of two days and how it forms in the wake of the recent now quite huge and dynamic system is going to be a unique opportunity. Sometimes, as it is partially true, i try to think of MBY as the atmosphere, there is very often something different and noteworthy going on there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0z NAM came in cooler than 18z. NAM is trending colder, how much colder and if other models do the same is still questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0z NAM came in cooler than 18z. NAM is trending colder, how much colder and if other models do the same is still questionable. The 00z NAM was a really good run for the NC/VA/WV mountains. Lots more precip further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Jason Boyer on WLOS saying all snow for Asheville which is at 2100'. I guess he is just wishcasting. My point was and has been this is an elevation driven snow. the higher you are the better off you are. I didn't even know ashevilles elevation at the time of my posting. Jesus folks, it's snow not gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My point was and has been this is an elevation driven snow. the higher you are the better off you are. I didn't even know ashevilles elevation at the time of my posting. Jesus folks, it's snow not gold. As I have stated to you before...... there are some folks who depend on snow for their income. To them, it might be considered the same as gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My point was and has been this is an elevation driven snow. the higher you are the better off you are. I didn't even know ashevilles elevation at the time of my posting. Jesus folks, it's snow not gold. Lol certainly not getting into any type of argument with you that is for sure, but I would do a little research before you post and call some posts wish casting. I don't think anyone outside of the mountains has been saying it will snow for certain in their backyard so I am not sure who you are referring to unless it is the mountain folk. The models have been all over the place, just look at the past 4 runs of the NAM. These are the type events that surprise a lot of people in Asheville. Sometimes it is better to just say nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Lol certainly not getting into any type of argument with you that is for sure, but I would do a little research before you post and call some posts wish casting. I don't think anyone outside of the mountains has been saying it will snow for certain in their backyard so I am not sure who you are referring to unless it is the mountain folk. The models have been all over the place, just look at the past 4 runs of the NAM. These are the type events that surprise a lot of people in Asheville. Sometimes it is better to just say nothing.Rays weather and the NWS both used the 3000 foot number. I can promise you I am not going to say nothing because some folks don't like what I'm saying. As for my wish and hype casting Comment, it happens on every single storm. Nothing new here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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