SeVa Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That low in the great lakes really messed this one up for us. Replace that low in the great lakes with that high in NY and we would have been in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z NAM def. looks to be coming in wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Might be a descent little hit of snow for the foothills at hour 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Might be a descent little hit of snow for the foothills at hour 51. 850's look good for the Triad west. Much more moisture when the 850's are the most cooperative too. How do the surface temps look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 After bad overnight runs, the SREF plumes bumped back up at 09z. Perhaps the NAM will do us a favor here in a few minutes. Yep, the 09Z run is much more encouraging. Here are a few samples: Hickory: Asheville: Greensboro: Boone: Sorry if I didn't get your favorite city. You can run your own plumes at this link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20141124&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=TNB&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.42906773122139&mLON=-79.288746484375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Might be a decent little hit of snow for the foothills at hour 51. Here is hour 48 on the latest 12Z NAM: And, here is hour 51: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Taking a quick glance of the Ptype maps, the 12z NAM is still confined to the mountains. A bit in the NE GA mountains too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Has anyone seen the hi-res Nam yet? NCEP hasn't updated but they are discussing it in the MA thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Has anyone seen the hi-res Nam yet? NCEP hasn't updated but they are discussing it in the MA thread. The Hi-Res is about the same as the other.. still confined to the same areas. Only looking at the SE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Hi-Res is about the same as the other.. still confined to the same areas. Only looking at the SE though. Thanks Shawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think this image is allowed, since it's the NAM. Thanks Shawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Speaking of Hi-Res NAM, look at this along the Blue Ridge Escarpment...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Has anyone seen the hi-res Nam yet? NCEP hasn't updated but they are discussing it in the MA thread. Mid 30's to lower 40's west to east in the piedmont, with lots of qpf. 850's are where they need to be at the height of the storm for I-40 north. Simulated radar has lots of yellow and orange.. Very close for places like Hickory, Mt. Airy, W-S, GSO. By hr. 51, most west of 95 are below 0c at 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Geez! Can we lock in this storm track all winter PLEASE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Still not buying the NAM's torching surface with this one. I'm going down in flames. January will make up for it if it blows up on my face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Mid 30's to lower 40's west to east in the piedmont, with lots of qpf. 850's are where they need to be at the height of the storm for I-40 north. Simulated radar has lots of yellow and orange.. Very close for places like Hickory, Mt. Airy, W-S, GSO. By hr. 51, most west of 95 are below 0c at 850mb Mid 30s in the western Piedmont is the coldest the NAM has been with this one yet at the surface. It was torching in the low to mid 40s yesterday.I hope Robert's call works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Latest WPC Probabilities: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Mid 30s in the western Piedmont is the coldest the NAM has been with this one yet at the surface. It was torching in the low to mid 40s yesterday. I hope Robert's call works out. At this point, I think if anyone east of the mountains is going to cash in, they're going to be somewhere in either Surry, Stokes, Wilkes, Forsyth, or western Rockingham counties.. At hr 51. on the High res NAM, W-S is 37, GSO is 38, Mt. Airy is 37, but there is a pocket of lower 30's in Stokes county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The biggest flakes I've ever seen was at 35-33 an many a time seen mcdowell hold on to all snow when places sourh an east wud be rain woodlawn I think wwre in for a treat my freind if poker serves me right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The biggest flakes I've ever seen was at 35-33 an many a time seen mcdowell hold on to all snow when places sourh an east wud be rain woodlawn I think wwre in for a treat my freind if poker serves me right. I think we might be as well. Many folk may be caught off guard by this one as well. As I was telling some the other day, any snow before Christmas I count as a bonus anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 QPF for Atlanta has trended back in the other direction (drier). That cements my feeling that KATL won't see accumulating snow. My prediction of a T of SN will most likely be too high rather than too low as it looks right now. I still have a major problem with not seeing a solid Arctic high to the N and W providing enough low level cold air at least for the ATL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 QPF for Atlanta has trended back in the other direction (drier). That cements my feeling that KATL won't see accumulating snow. My prediction of a T of SN will most likely be too high rather than too low as it looks right now. I still have a major problem with not seeing a solid Arctic high to the N and W providing enough low level cold air at least for the ATL area. I agree Larry, looking at the euro from last night, I think WNC and the high county have a good shot, other than that, nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think we might be as well. Many folk may be caught off guard by this one as well. As I was telling some the other day, any snow before Christmas I count as a bonus anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I agree I remember two storms before christmas nov 2000 and dec 4 2002 witch we got several in with a lil ice on top I personally think it will be a snow sleet combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I agree I remember two storms before christmas nov 2000 and dec 4 2002 witch we got several in with a lil ice on top I personally think it will be a snow sleet combo. I'm pretty sure people are either getting snow or rain. There isn't lower level cold to produce sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I dint mean a raging sleet storm I see your point thou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm guessing the 12z gfs was less than stellar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm guessing the 12z gfs was less than stellar? Correct. Similar to the 6z. Too warm for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Correct. Similar to the 6z. Too warm for most. These freaking surface temperatures are just a killer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 These freaking surface temperatures are just a killer... For us in the triad, they are so painstakingly close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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