packbacker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wish we could just lock up the WB clown for the 00z GFS. So beautiful. Tinges of pink (9"+) show up around GSO with 6"+ from around Salisbury, NC on N/E from there through Richmond. Realistically, you can probably cut that in half or more, though, and some of that may not be snow (if any of it is, providing the BL doesn't screw us), though the WB clown for the GFS usually isn't too ridiculous like the Euro one. How does the AmericanWx map look, Pack? Same as WB one. On my phone so can't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I would say about the same as the previous runs of the GFS. I still think if your sitting at a 2m temp of like 35, or so in WNC, you have a shot at some big old fat snowflakes falling on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How far down 85? Down to GSP, a little south, temps are close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Also, I know there are some BL issues...Well, lets be honest...There really isn't a good supply of low level cold right now either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Also, I know there are some BL issues...Well, lets be honest...There really isn't a good supply of low level cold right now either. Upper levels look great, if you looked at 850's and the precip you would think a decent winter storm was incoming.m looking at the whole picture this will be a highly elevation driven storm. Folks around 2500-3000+ are going to do well. I'm afraid the rest of us aren't going to get more than some token flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If the SLP and 850 low track like they are being portrayed on the new GFS and 12z Euro, and if the storm is strengthening as it makes the turn up the coast, I have seen it snow heavily at 33-35 in the WNC foothills and Western Piedmont due to dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Marion is right. We need to get 850s to atleast -2 to have a shot of cooling enough top down,assuming we get those heavy precipitation rates. Stinks we have a storm phase right on the benchmark for mby and the BL be so screwed up because of no cold air feed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If the SLP and 850 low track like they are being portrayed on the new GFS and 12z Euro, and if the storm is strengthening as it makes the turn up the coast, I have seen it snow heavily at 33-35 in the WNC foothills and Western Piedmont due to dynamics. The only issue is the depth of the warm pocket at the sfc. That's something you can't really predict until the event or w/in 24 hours. I think at this point any chance of it snowing at 32 or below is out the window outside of the mtns. The best chance in the foothills is a strong pocket of precip setting up late tuesday night. With that a combo of dynamical cooling/evap' cooling getting the BL down into the mid to low 30's (33-35 range). Where snow can make it down. At this point if it snows hard enough we could get a few wet inches on the grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If the SLP and 850 low track like they are being portrayed on the new GFS and 12z Euro, and if the storm is strengthening as it makes the turn up the coast, I have seen it snow heavily at 33-35 in the WNC foothills and Western Piedmont due to dynamics. I think you have a valid point...I remember a lot in the 1980's we would get some big snows with temps 33-34 degrees. Here's the big concern I have if you are believing in the GFS... The link below is the thermal profile for KMRN at 12z Wednesday...the temp at the SFC is (2.2), then at 950mb (2.9) and tat 900mb (0.9) I personally think that's too thick a layer for precip rates to overcome. I would like to see the profile at 900mb get to freezing and then more in the 1-2 celsius range at 950mb...if that could happen, I think the column all the way down could then cool enough to produce snow at 34-35 degrees... http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h60&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Also, I know there are some BL issues...Well, lets be honest...There really isn't a good supply of low level cold right now either. True, but also look at the snowpack that has been placed. This disturbance is a rippled with cold and warm. Yea they will get rain in the GL NY area But once the trough digs later this week with the h5 h850 and h925 remaining parrell to the coast along with the leftover cold should be enough for wintry wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think this covers the run pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The only issue is the depth of the warm pocket at the sfc. That's something you can't really predict until the event or w/in 24 hours. I think at this point any chance of it snowing at 32 or below is out the window outside of the mtns. The best chance in the foothills is a strong pocket of precip setting up late tuesday night. With that a combo of dynamical cooling/evap' cooling getting the BL down into the mid to low 30's (33-35 range). Where snow can make it down. At this point if it snows hard enough we could get a few wet inches on the grassy areas. Even if it doesn't happen this time, it is great to see this setup now. When this happens again when it is actually winter, the old air will be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Does anyone know how to read those black and white Canadian maps or have access to better maps from another site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think you have a valid point...I remember a lot in the 1980's we would get some big snows with temps 33-34 degrees. Here's the big concern I have if you are believing in the GFS... The link below is the thermal profile for KMRN at 12z Wednesday...the temp at the SFC is (2.2), then at 950mb (2.9) and tat 900mb (0.9) I personally think that's too thick a layer for precip rates to overcome. I would like to see the profile at 900mb get to freezing and then more in the 1-2 celsius range at 950mb...if that could happen, I think the column all the way down could then cool enough to produce snow at 34-35 degrees... http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h60&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Totally agree, it certainly needs to be a few degrees colder in order to really cool the column to all snow.. I think (like others have said) this may be an elevation dependent type deal with areas over 3k feet doing well. It will be very interesting to see what the Euro says later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The UKMET and Canadian have now caved as of tonight's runs towards the GFS/Euro solution. I'm not sure of the specifics given their maps are lacking that are out so far, but it looks pretty similar. They were both way east at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Even if it doesn't happen this time, it is great to see this setup now. When this happens again when it is actually winter, the old air will be around. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The UKMET and Canadian have now caved as of tonight's runs towards the GFS/Euro solution. I think more importantly for you is the GFS ticked east a bit. The UK crushes the foothills up through the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think more importantly for you is the GFS ticked east a bit. The UK crushes the foothills up through the MA. Do you think the RGEM will be telling tomorrow? Seems like it was on a hot streak last year for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Do you think the RGEM will be telling tomorrow? Seems like it was on a hot streak last year for a while. I think so, curious to see what the Euro does tonight. Although will be asleep. I think it ticks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think this covers the run pretty well The usual DC to GSO good chance of both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT's "First Guess". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Okay, for the KCAE people. No go, there will be no go at all. It's warm, most areas even in NC/N.Ga are too warm. Just wanted to give you guys that info. Even if the Euro OP came in tonight with a Blizzard in KCAE, it's a jinx run. Sorry guys, we got lucky on Nov. 1st and this is not the kind of system coming up to give us anything other than a cold cold rain. If this system was here in the middle of Jan. or Feb, or even early March; we could be looking at a Winter storm. Just the wrong time currently. To be even looking at potential Winter weather for areas outside of the mountains this early is a great sign though. I personally think there is going to be a warm-up in the Southeast.... and we could even see above normal temps through the first couple weeks of December. It'll flip, and hopefully at the right time for us all. Late December (around Christmas/New Years), Feb (brutal month of cold in the USA imo), and first half of March) should be fun and games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is falling in line with the GFS/NAM WRT to timing of the southern energy. Faster vs. the 12z Euro run. Out to 51 and has more moisture NW of where 12z was at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro tonight has less QPF and is warmer vs. the 12z run. This looks like a no go for most outside of the mountains and maybe the fringes of I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Euro tracks the surface low right over the OBX, which makes it a western outlier at this point. We'll see. Not really what I wanted to see, though... EDIT: Actually, the track is slightly inland over the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula, which is usually a no-go anywhere east of the mountains no matter what time of year it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well fun while it lasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 06z NAM is different. Kind of a sheared out mess, from what I saw before hitting the sack. Surface temps appeared to be a little cooler (not that they're still not way too warm, verbatim), but precip was much lesser. West of I-85 doesn't get a lot of precip. And, no, I wasn't staying up for the 06z NAM. I'm just furiously trying to finish up a project/paper that's due on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here's the last panel on the 6z RGEM. Looks like it tries to build a little high pressure in the northeast. I don't think it will be enough to help us too much. The new SREF looks wet and maybe a touch colder at the surface. 850's look about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 After bad overnight runs, the SREF plumes bumped back up at 09z. Perhaps the NAM will do us a favor here in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 After bad overnight runs, the SREF plumes bumped back up at 09z. Perhaps the NAM will do us a favor here in a few minutes. SREF looks very similar to the overnight run of the ecmwf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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