Disc Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 When it's your job you can't be as wishful for the "maybes" and "could be". I see all of his points. As Robert said for anyone east of the mountains it's going to be all about the things models have the hardest time picking up. I want to see the clown maps from the NAM. 0z NAM torches and the snow map is very bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z NAM torches and the snow map is very bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z NAM torches and the snow map is very bleak. And that map includes upslope snow on Turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not much to see. NAM shows maybe an inch or less from DC south through the western Carolina's. Some parts of the NC/VA border maybe 2", but there's nothing much to measure elsewhere. The NAM was only 10 degrees too warm here last Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z NAM torches and the snow map is very bleak. Weird it didn't look much different cold wise from the GFS and looked colder to me than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think the NAM is being the NAM. We should look at, discuss it, but it can't be taken seriously farther then hr48. I mean it has moved the low pressure center 100-150 miles over the past 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Weird it didn't look much different cold wise from the GFS and looked colder to me than the 18z. 925 to the surface doesn't look very pretty this go; Stays above 0C the entire event for NC, mountains included. The whole evolution of it seemed a bit 'off'. I do like how it looked at 5h though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 posting my first thoughts map on Twitter now. video shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think the NAM is being the NAM. We should look at, discuss it, but it can't be taken seriously farther then hr48. I mean it has moved the low pressure center 100-150 miles over the past 3 runs. So has the GFS...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So has the GFS...... The big difference being is the NAM is much better inside of 48 hours and is moving more in line with the Euro. Anything is still possible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So has the GFS...... What is your point? Things are trending towards the Euro? Most people here know the NAM is unreliable outside of 2 days. GFS digging just a bit more @ hr42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Someone hit the gas on our southern energy and it's rolling faster than the 18z had it. Let's see where it goes. Out to 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like it may go negative tilt a little earlier (so far). We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hmmm...that northern energy is getting closer to a phase on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Uh oh we're getting a phase @57...this could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well doesn't quite phase. Super wet across I-85 and still pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 First kind of call/idea map from me. I see the GFS is running now. hey if you want to follow me you can as well...TY and yes that was a cheap plug. https://twitter.com/wxmanchris/status/536722900905365504 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That one was close....this one is not as wet for everyone as the 18z was but that northern branch really needs to be watched. Once it gets properly sampled we might be in for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well doesn't quite phase. Super wet across I-85 and still pretty warm. Oh man, you had my hopes up. How do the temps compare with the 18z? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well doesn't quite phase. Super wet across I-85 and still pretty warm. Looks colder than the 18z run, though, FWIW. Not quite as wet, but it's still wet enough as the heaviest precip axis basically sets up right along I-85. The surface may be on fire, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looking at the thermal profile...850's a tad bit colder for the NC Foothills (KMRN) on the 0z GFS... still would like to see it a bit colder as we go through the runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BL temps torch again. That's going to be a problem for this Storm it appears. We haven't seen that trend in a direction to benefit, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The GFS has GSO at 35F verbatim under heavy precip and sub-freezing 850s at hr 60. CLT is 36 and most of the foothills are in the mid 30s, too. Boone is the cold spot at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The GFS has GSO at 35F verbatim under heavy precip and sub-freezing 850s at hr 60. CLT is 36 and most of the foothills are in the mid 30s, too. Boone is the cold spot at 32. I'll take my chances on that. Might end up with a day like the one before the big storm in Feb. where it just snowed all day with nothing really accumulating much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The GFS has GSO at 35F verbatim under heavy precip and sub-freezing 850s at hr 60. CLT is 36 and most of the foothills are in the mid 30s, too. Boone is the cold spot at 32. Yeah...that 34-36 degree range runs from the SFC to about 900mb which is just thick enough to ruin what falls out of that sub-freezing layer at 850. That's why I would like to see 850's get down -2 or lower and 900mb get to freezing. Right now there's just not enough cold air supply at the surface to bring that on the GFS... With that all said, the GFS has been warm biased of all things on its temps this autumn. The margin of error on this is pretty small in regards to the effects it could have on this storm for those to the immediate east of the mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Leaving GSO for Boone first thing Wednesday morning to get a Christmas tree. Should be fun. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS ticked east plus that weak HP over PA hung in there longer. Great run for 85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wish we could just lock up the WB clown for the 00z GFS. So beautiful. Tinges of pink (9"+) show up around GSO with 6"+ from around Salisbury, NC on N/E from there through Richmond. Realistically, you can probably cut that in half or more, though, and some of that may not be snow (if any of it is, providing the BL doesn't screw us), though the WB clown for the GFS usually isn't too ridiculous like the Euro one. How does the AmericanWx map look, Pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS ticked east plus that weak HP over PA hung in there longer. Great run for 85 corridor.How far down 85? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks colder than the 18z run, though, FWIW. Not quite as wet, but it's still wet enough as the heaviest precip axis basically sets up right along I-85. The surface may be on fire, though. The GFS has GSO at 35F verbatim under heavy precip and sub-freezing 850s at hr 60. CLT is 36 and most of the foothills are in the mid 30s, too. Boone is the cold spot at 32. 0z gfs is with out a doubt a snow player. Just look at the setup folks pay too much attention pbp. Surface 850 and 500 is cold enough for snow down on the back side of the comma head in NE GA, W SC. W NC Central NC and Va. With the amount of cold air comiing in ranging from hour 63 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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