MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That shows rain for NYC but what's the point arguing precip type if the track is still in question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not if your opinion involves reading model output incorrectly and spreading misinformation in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 stop tagging me I'm entitled to my opinion. Models are only guidance. You're not entitled to false statements. Just because you roll out the opinion line doesn't mean you can get away with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not if your opinion involves reading model output incorrectly and spreading misinformation in the forum. And what are surface temps during that hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Tony I do admire your enthusiasm for snow but, your best bet is listen to others esp people like Anthony .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Coastal sections want this closer to 70W than 72W like the Euro has. DT freebie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The pro mets on Twitter as of this morning are saying it looks like snow inland, rain at the coast that may change to snow Wed night. Seem to be concerned about a warm layer aloft. Still too early to determine the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Tonylovessnow, your making my eyes bleed reading your false stuff. Friendly advice listen more, post less or you'll probably be outt here before winter really starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Agree bluewave. The best bet for the coast is to have the storm bomb over the bm just like the Euro mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Tony I do admire your enthusiasm for snow but, your best bet is listen to others esp people like Earthlight .. Fixed:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The pro mets on Twitter as of this morning are saying it looks like snow inland, rain at the coast that may change to snow Wed night. Seem to be concerned about a warm layer aloft. Still too early to determine the details. Thats my guess, the furnaced atlantic and the LP being tucked in will warm all layers East of NYC and LI will be predominantely rain. If this can shift to like 72W like chris said it would be ideal, lets hope the clipper can punt this further east or LI is all liquid while inland gets 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not if your opinion involves reading model output incorrectly and spreading misinformation in the forum. As we all have said including yourself Tony, models are just guidance, not forecasts. Furthermore, the colors blue and green on a map of an event more than a few days away are even less significant. Best bet is to take the GFS and any other model for the general idea that it shows at this point. Pinpointing the city of Islip as close to where the rain/snow line will be is going a bit too far.Overall, I think has major potential. In regards to the model's support for it, some have the city/coast borderline and a bit too warm to stay all snow (GFS/EURO) while others have it actually missing us to the east (PARA GFS/NAM). In general, if it does come in THAT close to the coast, we are going to have mixing or rain, maybe a change back to snow. It is part of the reason why we only average 25-30" of snow near NYC. Bluewave, what you mentioned about the clipper is a good point and will be interesting to watch. If timed perfectly, it seems it could keep it from coming further W, or keep it from coming W enough. Taking the middle ground between models at this point would still give us some snow, so all in all you've got to like how we look at this point a few days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 70 west will also be fine for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I don't know about all of you but seeing snow before Thanksgiving is a bonus for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Upton http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNINGLEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTSTHE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVENTHIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVELSNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THEHWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATINGSNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULKOF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED Mt Holly http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERSTHROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIPRAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THISSOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOWAFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWWOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THEREGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THEREGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THATWHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TOWEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATINGSNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL. Thanks to BenchmarkTS for the heads up http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f096_usbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Any way you cut this pie as of now a real travel mess looks probable ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Agree bluewave. The best bet for the coast is to have the storm bomb over the bm just like the Euro mean. Yeah, that ensemble track would make many people very happy. Just not sure if the smoothed out mean is missing the amplitude of the OP pumping the ridge to east with more tucked in solution. We'll have to wait for later runs to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thats my guess, the furnaced atlantic and the LP being tucked in will warm all layers East of NYC and LI will be predominantely rain. If this can shift to like 72W like chris said it would be ideal, lets hope the clipper can punt this further east or LI is all liquid while inland gets 6"+ I think you meant to say 70W. 72W would be getting close to going over my head. Personally, I think we see a good amount of rain. Which is ok, just keep the storms coming right through winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think you meant to say 70W. 72W would be getting close to going over my head. Personally, I think we see a good amount of rain. Which is ok, just keep the storms coming right through winter Im sorry it was an 8am just got work and my ass is still tired typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Upton http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED Mt Holly http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL. Thanks to BenchmarkTS for the heads up http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f096_usbg.gif prec_f096_usbg.gif No sweat dm. Good to see an old mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 6z GEFS continuing to shift westhttp://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html I think you meant to say 70W. 72W would be getting close to going over my head. Personally, I think we see a good amount of rain. Which is ok, just keep the storms coming right through winter Seeing coastals now is a great thing for the winter. Im sorry it was an 8am just got work and my ass is still tired typo No excuses. This is showtime with the storm coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 All guidance now looks prime for a winter storm away from immediate coast, long island, and possibly city itself...once west of 95 looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Most of the Euro ensemble members are clustered on or just near the benchmark. 9z SREF FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 All guidance now looks prime for a winter storm away from immediate coast, long island, and possibly city itself...once west of 95 looks good not yet http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/06/US/namUS_prec_prec_084.gif gosh NAMIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Most of the Euro ensemble members are clustered on or just near the benchmark. Was going to mention this earlier, I'm not sure its most, but there is a nice cluster taking a obx to bm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 All guidance now looks prime for a winter storm away from immediate coast, long island, and possibly city itself...once west of 95 looks good 0Z Euro guidance doesn`t suggest Rain in NYC . To the contrary . Yesterday 12z ensembles served up 7 of it`s 51 members as the center delivering rain to the city the 0Z run is down to 5 .( so that trended right for the city ) Yesterday BL at 12z at 108 KNYC was 34 this morning at 96 its 33 It`s 850`s remain at Minus 2 . Nassau Suffolk Border at 12z yesterday it was plus 3 . at 0z for the first half before the warm punch its 0 JFK 850`s at 12 z YESTERDAY was plus 2 at 0z it gets to 0 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It does seem like a near BM track looks favored right now, which is not unusual since many coastals often follow that same path. Too bad the airmass ahead of it isn't a bit colder then we wouldn't have as many temperature issues but it is November after all. I'll guess the city may pick up at least an inch of slop and it gradually increases the further inland you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 And don`t make me post the Euro control snow map . It will cause a riot ( in a good way ) it was even better than yesterdays 12z run . I do however fear that this could tug a hair west .( just what these storms like to do ) . That said the Euro ensemble cluster is at the BM . Lets hope that looks like that at 3pm with it`s ensemble package . I will be interested to look at the individual members as sometimes the mean is just smoothed out . We always seem to be playing with fire from the Hudson on east , but that`s the norm for the region on the coastal plain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 9z SREF just went way west lol. 3z SREF precip valid 1:00am-1:00pm on the 26th had the 0.25" line from Salisbury-Rehobeth Beach-Cape May offshore to Martha's Vinyard. While 9z SREF has that same line from IAD to BWI to Wilmington to Mantauk. What that means is the storm has also slowed down a lot. By 7:00pm, the mean in whole has everyone east of I-95 above 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Is that map actually drawn by the METS at Wxbell or is it a model generated snow map ? Ryan Maue`s algo. Uses soundings at a10 to 1 ratio . When you get into marginal BL and 850`s you have to take them lightly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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