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Possible NYC snow Wed Night or Thursday


Mitchel Volk

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the nam has been saying no ty for many runs.  perhaps we should listen.

Good to see I'm not alone at this hour.  Up with my 1 month old so I'll be playing catch up on last night and watching the GFS.  

 

To be honest, I'm never really worried about the NAM at any range.  I guess you'd want to see it 'amped up' because that tends to be it's bias, but there is no way this system is going to 'cut', so perhaps it's struggling with how to 'amp it up' correctly.

 

The consistency of the Euro has been remarkable --- and adding the Ukie in it's camp is a powerful combo.  That said, we're not out of the woods yet, because an escape East isn't off the table --- especially w/ the Euro Ens consistently East.  

 

Gut feeling is the GFS joins the party soon --- then the NAM.  Let's see if it starts now, with the 6z run.  I think with us within 80 hours or so, we're about to see that tick further West to join the party...

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I just looked at the GFS 6z and it looked more phased as well as organized. The coastal places might have some mixing during the day but should switch to snow by dusk. This is likely looking like a major snowstorm for the DC-Boston for the Thanksgiving eve.

Easy there pal. It does NOT show that.

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well the euro does and that's why the GFS is trending towards the Euro 0z In fact the GFS 6z is almost identical to the Euro 0z. Remember it's all about trending in meteorology.

Nope. Euro does not either. Too warm for the coast and city for major accumulations. I'm not saying it does not happen, just that neither show what you're saying. Euro actually has trended warmer...
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Nope. Euro does not either. Too warm for the coast and city for major accumulations. I'm not saying it does not happen, just that neither show what you're saying. Euro actually has trended warmer...

it did but I still think it'll be a blend of GFS and EURO. Also this storm reminds of the post Sandy snowstorm as far as the pattern. It's going to be a hugger but that doesn't really mean it'll only rain. It'll most likely drizzle until it moistens the atmosphere and when the heavier precipitation moves in, it falls as snow. Initially, Islip and east may get mixing but you've got to remember the models always downgrade nor'easters as far as models always seem to put the snow line around i95 yet, it almost ends up snowing at least up to Islip, NY. except if you have a strong El Niño., similar to the 1997-98 winter.
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it did but I still think it'll be a blend of GFS and EURO. Also this storm reminds of the post Sandy snowstorm as far as the pattern. It's going to be a hugger but that doesn't really mean it'll only rain. It'll most likely drizzle until it moistens the atmosphere and when the heavier precipitation moves in, it falls as snow. Initially, Islip and east may get mixing but you've got to remember the models always downgrade nor'easters as far as models always seem to put the snow line around i95 yet, it almost ends up snowing at least up to Islip, NY. except if you have a strong El Niño., similar to the 1997-98 winter.

No. It did not. I'm not going to keep this going, but this misinformation will get you in trouble.
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Not if your opinion involves reading model output incorrectly and spreading misinformation in the forum.

but you guys are both wrong because my model output was right. It does show a snow event. East of Islip it shows a mostly rain event, but still I would think dynamic cooling would take care of that. As long as we have a low pressure to our southeast, we will always cool.
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