Doorman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 need the wind direction to stay out of the n- ne - so the placement of the HP is critical along with the exact track of the storm - the more easterly wind component = less frozen thanks for your input NAO I think the tandem movement shown in the wpc guidance today, makes for very little snow accumulation in the metro enhanced for clarity http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 need the wind direction to stay out of the n- ne - so the placement of the HP is critical along with the exact track of the storm - the more easterly wind component = less frozen The other problem is that remnant low over the Great Lakes if we get an incomplete/partial phase. That creates more E/SE winds at the coast which warms the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The GFS is much more amplified with the trailing vort at 72 hours. Although the lead energy in the GOM is a bit faster, I think this run will come in more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Unbelievable differences at 78 hours compared to the 18z run with the trailing disturbance. Much more energetic and amplified this run. The lead vort, however, is faster and farther east..so we will see what the translation of those differences is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mid/upper level jet positioning at 72-78 hours argues that this run is going to look like the 12z Euro Ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like slightly east of 18z. Not a bad spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like slightly east of 18z. Not a bad spot. The trough is deeper but it looks a little east at the surface, weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The trough is deeper but it looks a little east at the surface, weird. Looks like the Euro mean. H5 looks good. IMO, it should have been more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Good spot now. H5 looks much improved and the surface should follow suit in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Re: the 00z GFS... that southern vortmax is rather well colocated with the divergent quadrant of the upper jet streak over the southern Appalachians by early Wednesday UTC, but surface cyclogenesis is occurring several hundred miles east of there. My best guess is that the frontal zone trailing the big Great Lakes system drags the best baroclinicity offshore, which seems (?) to be confirmed looping 850 mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 0z Para is still a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The NAM is very progressive, it may mean nothing but the NAM tends to be amped up big time in this range...its possible though because this is not a system that can get a big time phase that cuts west the NAM bias is not really working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I might be overreacting but the PGFS may make a lot of people disregard it or it might be the new god model depending on what happens because it just doesnt buy it... Snowgoose the NAM is ina good spot in my eyes as it likes to adjust NW as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The GGEM looks similar to 12Z, it may actually be closer with the low track but not as far west with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The GGEM looks similar to 12Z, it may actually be closer with the low track but not as far west with the precip shield. GGEM is further east than 12z http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 0z Ukie is still really close to the coast . Just like the Euro. Really nice look here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WPC update days 3-4 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg gizzards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 euro? No notable changes through hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hr 78, low over N FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hr 78, low over N FL This run looks like it will come in more west and stronger. A lot of moisture down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looking great, 84 off SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Last piece dropping in, bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 He 93 just NE of OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 00z ECM @ 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Tucked right in, mega hit interior, paste job city, rain LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hr 99 city mixed, 850's warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hr 102 low 990's S of Twin Forks, temps crashing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 00z ECM @ 96 hrs USA_PRMSL_msl_096.gif What a thing of beauty!! Can we fast forward 3 days please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro is still showing a coastal bomb. Low goes just to the east of LI. Coast might see problems with this run but inland areas do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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