Amped Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I am visiting in CT for the Holidays. This looks like a pretty tricky setup. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 150 mile shift either way. B Heavy snow axis is probably NW NJ to Berkshires to MT Washington on this run. 850 Temperature gradient gets sharper the further north you go so I'd expect it to be heaviest stuff in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The Euro takes the center over Providence . Not ideal for KNYC east , you want to see that a shade East of Nantucket . Small details and a day 4 super amp job . Some big time lows Friday AM over the snow cover . Shouldn't the progressive pattern and lack of blocking actually favor a further east track then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Shouldn't the progressive pattern and lack of blocking actually favor a further east track then? yes and you want to avoid any fetch off the warm atlantic - need to keep the winds coming in from the N-NE - if this thing is tilted back into the coast more of a chance of warm enough late november water temps spoiling the party.........last time we had a thanksgiving eve - thanksgiving day snowstorm near the metro was 1989 I believe - I was down in Ocean County and we got 7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Shouldn't the progressive pattern and lack of blocking actually favor a further east track then? Exactly where the center decides to ride the baroclinic zone will be a result of exactly where Tues`s cold front stops and sets up . The models will need a few days to figure out 50 mile solution either direction . 4 days out is something that will be solved as we get closer .( Its is possible the Euro is over amped ) . Its 1 op run The fact that there is no blocking helps this chug along , that's about it . This is about track and intensity especially for coastal locales . That will determine who gets what and how much . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Shouldn't the progressive pattern and lack of blocking actually favor a further east track then? You probably won't see a track much further west than the current Euro has. Anyone focusing on Euro surface temps, don't...they are always too warm...I don't think verbatim there is much snow with this for the coast, even front end...in January this may be a big snow initially for everyone but we need a track east of the 12Z euro for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 euro ensembles are perfect for a early season snowstorm from dca-bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Quick question Is wind a concern with this storm either during it or behind it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The control and ensembles are an I-95 holiday travel wrecker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hows the control look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hows the control look? It's a MECS. 994mb low just inside the 40/70 BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hows the control look? 994 inside the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hows the control look? Bout a foot DC to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Bout a foot DC to Boston Would be first Skype T-DAY if anything close to that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I've been reading that the less amped solutions come closer to the coast and the more amped solutions are further off shore. Is this correct and if so what's the reason for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The ensemble mean just outside the BM. That's good to see. Hopefully the westward OPs stop here. SnowGoose69 said this earlier. May be a good call. If we can get the OP deepening w the ensemble track. All will b happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I've been reading that the less amped solutions come closer to the coast and the more amped solutions are further off shore. Is this correct and if so what's the reason for it?Exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Would be first Skype T-DAY if anything close to that verifies. Yeh. DC to Boston you wreck travel through the weekend It really is a worse case scenario for those who want to get home and have to travel that day. Think if tomorrw 12z run looks like this The word gets out so plans get changed in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Ensembles are about the best case scenario you can have this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Unless this storm deepens rapidly with a BM track looks like rain for the coast and NYC-west gets their first MECS. If this inside the BM im not holding out much hope for me in SW suffolk county. Regardless exciting to be tracking our first snow threat of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm not gonna bite until Monday and the solution is still on the table by then. It is nice to track these systems again though no matter the outcome. Any snow this month is a bonus so even if we see nothing then it's no reason to get upset about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeh. DC to Boston you wreck travel through the weekend It really is a worse case scenario for those who want to get home and have to travel that day. Think if tomorrw 12z run looks like this The word gets out so plans get changed in time. Yeah, the ensemble track with OP strengthening would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Best case scenario has the storm move rapidly from Hatteras to the Cape; I'm talking a forward speed in excess of 35 kts...thus limiting the potential for warm ocean air to work its way into the circulation...a slow mover would almost certainly see a changeover well into the interior...there was a November storm a few years back off the New England coast...began as snow over much of upstate NY...but it sat out over the waters east of the Cape for such an extended period that the circulation became contaminated with warm maritime air; eventually rain worked in as far west as the lower elevations of western NY state; including Buffalo.. Not if the PV feature near James Bay/Ontario phases in...that comes right out of the North Pole so the storm can't rot but actually gains cold air as it develops. We really want the northern energy to become more involved, especially those who are further west. The low might track as far west as PVD, but NYC NW could still stay snow since it's the cold PV responsible for the tug inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 You can see the GFS has more separation with the northern feature and thus the solution is further out to sea...the ECM has more of a northern stream phase so it's further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 You can see the GFS has more separation with the northern feature and thus the solution is further out to sea...the ECM has more of a northern stream phase so it's further inland. gfsseparation.gif And may be a case of 1 amped euro op run. I like the pattern . I think it produces . I hope it gets everyone. I think it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Not if the PV feature near James Bay/Ontario phases in...that comes right out of the North Pole so the storm can't rot but actually gains cold air as it develops. We really want the northern energy to become more involved, especially those who are further west. The low might track as far west as PVD, but NYC NW could still stay snow since it's the cold PV responsible for the tug inland.this type of storm, it's intensity and track would demolish DC to Boston with at least 8 inches. Maybe more. It would make it's own cold air cause it's a big storm! Those warm water would only fuel the storm to be stronger. I wouldn't be surprised if the storm settles in the benchmark area around 980 millibar storm. That's a quick hitting blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 You can see the GFS has more separation with the northern feature and thus the solution is further out to sea...the ECM has more of a northern stream phase so it's further inland. gfsseparation.gif That's what the GFS was showing right up until the day of the February 2013 Blizzard since it was phasing too late. But we probably need a few more runs to make sure the OP Euro isn't phasing too soon which it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 this type of storm, it's intensity and track would demolish DC to Boston with at least 8 inches. Maybe more. It would make it's own cold air cause it's a big storm! Those warm water would only fuel the storm to be stronger. I wouldn't be surprised if the storm settles in the benchmark area around 980 millibar storm. That's a quick hitting blizzard! BOS is mostly rain on an ECM track...the low goes near PVD which is never good for BOS. Also, BOS is most vulnerable to east winds. I think NYC is in a much better position for this storm than eastern New England. Living in the northern suburbs with a little elevation, I'm rooting for a western track with more of a polar vortex phase. You can see the 12z ECM really wants to dig the northern stream...the feature is up near Hudson Bay on the GFS but much further south into the CONUS on the EC at Day 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That's what the GFS was showing right up until the day of the February 2013 Blizzard since it was phasing too late. But we probably need a few more runs to make sure the OP Euro isn't phasing too soon which it could be. The GFS has been trending towards the 12Z ECM solution with its handling of the northern stream. There was a big difference between 6z and 12z with the development of the PV feature and how far south it gets...The lower heights from the PV extend much furrther south at 12z than 6z on the GFS. 6z still had the energy held back towards Hudson Bay: 12z has the energy much further south and closer to a partial phase: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 How much wind if any you guys think this storm has with it or behind it?? Is there a chance the balloons won't fly in the parade cause of wind?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The GFS has been trended towards the 12Z ECM solution with its handling of the northern stream. There was a big difference between 6z and 12z with the development of the PV feature and how far south it gets...The lower heights from the PV extend much furrther south at 12z than 6z on the GFS. 6z still had the energy held back towards Hudson Bay: gfs6zseparate.gif 12z has the energy much further south and closer to a partial phase: gfs12ztogether.gif I always question day 4 and 5 euro ops when the blow up like that but that water is so warm off the EC I'm not sure if I don't buy the 15 mb deepening In 12 hours as per 12z euro OP. I just think if you get the op bomb with the ensemble track . You will light the lamp everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.