Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 it is upated. Had lehigh valley in 4-6 earlier today and now back to their 6-8 inches and the 2-4 and 1-2 was expanded slightly south east Yeah seems a bit low, but maybe that's just the weenie in me. A small shift east on the models tonight would do wonders for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For entertainment purposes only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah seems a bit low, but maybe that's just the weenie in me. A small shift east on the models tonight would do wonders for I-95. Those maps will change at least 6 times before Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I like the 6- 8 inches in abe and warren county area, and i think going down toward middlesex county there should be many 4 -5 inch totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 According to Mt. Holly's map I'm going to get 1-2". There could a high degree of busts with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Based on Upton,north fork gettin between 1-4 inches lol orient,ny is in the 2-4, but west and south it's1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The algo on this Euro chart must not think the precip will be heavy enough to dynamically cool east NYC. I wonder how they do their calculations? Maybe it's just straight BL above freezing? Matches closer to Mt. Holly. 1544284_779953812051879_4617859261481018026_n.jpg B.jpg Out of all the Euro snowfall maps this site usually is the closest to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Lee Goldberg going for a slushy 1-3" inches for NYC on colder surfaces...If the current trend holds place I think he may have to raise those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Another aspect to consider is that while we're well past peak foliage, not all of the trees are bare. 6-10" of cement could bring down some tree branches, although the risk is not as great as it would have been a couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Another aspect to consider is that while we're well past peak foliage, not all of the trees are bare. 6-10" of cement could bring down some tree branches, although the risk is not as great as it would have been a couple of weeks ago. You still have leaves on your trees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You still have leaves on your trees? A lot of oaks typically don't drop all their leaves but I'd say it will be a non-issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You still have leaves on your trees? My evergreens still have almost all of their needles... the potential for heavy damage is high with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You still have leaves on your trees? Some, I'd say we're 85-90% bare. The two Maples in my front yard didn't drop until the weekend before last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My evergreens still have almost all of their needles... the potential for heavy damage is high with this storm. I see whatcha did there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I really don't see the "foliage" or lack there of by now being an issue but any heavy wet snow can cause some damage to power lines and it may knock down a few branches. I'm sure the NWS mentioned this already and usually the problems start once you hit 6"+. Also what is the start time for everything like the first rains and when it possibly transitions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My evergreens still have almost all of their needles... the potential for heavy damage is high with this storm.While they are short, I am contemplating covering my older rhododendrons for the same concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18z GFS running. Seems to a little more amped so far with s/w's, seems to be a trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Great trends today from the Euro and the nam although nam is pointless. I only look at nam 24hours or closer to the event. This has a classic nor'easter signature and I've been saying this and I'll keep saying it NYC is getting at least 4 inches out of this. Maybe even 6-8 depends on how strong the storm. Hopefully the storm hits benchmark and trends a little stronger by wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 No major changes on the 18z GFS through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The algo on this Euro chart must not think the precip will be heavy enough to dynamically cool east NYC. I wonder how they do their calculations? Maybe it's just straight BL above freezing? Matches closer to Mt. Holly. 1544284_779953812051879_4617859261481018026_n.jpg B.jpg maps clearly WAY to conservative no way those are the amounts with that euro track...srry. upton almost has the 4-6 into the city that map has 1 inch...its wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 18z RGEM has NYC over to snow by 16z or so it starts as some sort of RAPL or RASN mix even western to central LI is snow by 20z, remember RGEM not great at more than 36 hours and it's 06 and 18z runs can be off but it's track is similar to most guidance. The RGEM was on fire last winter and it already nailed the southern plains snow last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Tick slower, tick West, nice juicy low near SC coast hour 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 please don't mention this guy as my mother could predict the weather better than him. At least take it to the banter the local media outlets r terrible Lee Goldberg is a degreed met and one of the best in the business. Please get your facts straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hr 39 low right over the Central NC Coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hour 42 right over OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hour 45 kicking East of OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 18z RGEM has NYC over to snow by 16z or so it starts as some sort of RAPL or RASN mix even western to central LI is snow by 20z, remember RGEM not great at more than 36 hours and it's 06 and 18z runs can be off but it's track is similar to most guidance. The RGEM was on fire last winter and it already nailed the southern plains snow last week Yes. Did terrific in the storm the day after the SB if I recall correctly as well as the redeveloping clipper to overperformer we had in mid -late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The track of the low is very similar to 12z but it's dryer on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What are your predictions for when you're five posted? No worries man the hit list for the mods is growing little by little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Lee Goldberg is a degreed met and one of the best in the business. Please get your facts straight. Agreed the guy has forgotten more then most on here know. He made a good point about elevation in November snow storms. I still think there are accumulation issues below 800'. Where the best dynamics are and rates though someone even low and coastal is in for a 6" plus surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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